Attachments: Mouteki Trading

Mouteki Trading

#701
Sep 17, 2006 3:14am Sep 17, 2006 3:14am

kenari05
| Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 294 Posts

anyone has done analysis for GU?

{Link Removed}]

#702
Sep 17, 2006 7:44am Sep 17, 2006 7:44am

nutmg12
| Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Trader | 228 Posts

What's GU?

#703
Sep 17, 2006 8:35am Sep 17, 2006 8:35am

smjones
Joined Mar 2006 | Status: THANK YOU MERLIN,TWEE and FF Team | 4,603 Posts

GBPUSD

Quoting nutmg12

Disliked

What's GU?

Ignored

#704
Edited 11:23am Sep 17, 2006 9:20am | Edited 11:23am

nutmg12
| Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Trader | 228 Posts

Quoting kenari05

Disliked

anyone has done analysis for GU?

Ignored

Thanks Scott;
I'm a little slow on the uptake this morning.

Kenari05

Here's how I view GBP-USD at this time.

http://www.gifworks.com/queue/9-17_10258.gif

#705
Sep 17, 2006 10:35am Sep 17, 2006 10:35am

SeekingLight
Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts

Since I have this craving for > 500 post threads I just couldn't resist

I was wondering what went wrong for cable and whether it's me drawing it wrong or just cable misbehaving as usual....

Btw, congratulations to Mouteki, seems everyone that got miffed with the MA following systems has now jumped over to TL and price action ;D
It's nice to see people are still trading and developing pure TA/price based systems!

What a great development....seems it grew exponentially in just a few days...

On another note, I wonder when people will come back around and realize the over 12 months old thread by James16 is (one of) the best thing(s) to read, know and trade

Along with the additions made to the whole shebang in the private forum, of course =)

Here's my take on it:

Attached Image

Trust price. Know yourself.

#706
Sep 17, 2006 10:43am Sep 17, 2006 10:43am

smjones
Joined Mar 2006 | Status: THANK YOU MERLIN,TWEE and FF Team | 4,603 Posts

Seekinglight,

A couple of things.. the trade is not over yet. Also, no method is perfect. Lets see what Monday holds... thanks scott

btw, I do not trade this method, but I do see the logic in it and it can be used with Jim's price action for confluences .. In my opinion.

Have a nice weekend,, Scott

#707
Sep 17, 2006 11:34am Sep 17, 2006 11:34am

mesinuang
| Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trader | 20 Posts

Yap, I will just wait and see what will happen with the price on monday.
Sure hope price continue to go south though

Don't be a human when you trade, trade like a machine you are.

#708
Sep 17, 2006 11:41am Sep 17, 2006 11:41am

SeekingLight
Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts

Quoting smjones

Disliked

Seekinglight,

A couple of things.. the trade is not over yet. Also, no method is perfect. Lets see what Monday holds... thanks scott

btw, I do not trade this method, but I do see the logic in it and it can be used with Jim's price action for confluences .. In my opinion.

Have a nice weekend,, Scott

Ignored

Hey Scott!

Yea, it's not over, I agree, but it would already have exceeded a 40 pip stop...okay, that would still be 3:1 R/R if we do end up down there and don't go any higher, just saying that the original .doc gives the impression that if a trade doesn't immediately go in the wanted direction, something's up. I guess one should keep stops pretty tight, because the trades that do deviate a lot exceed even tolerant S/L from what i've seen on some quick back checks....

But I'll come back to this system when I got more time on my hands, currently already busy learning as much as I can about James16 and having an eye for things / seeing the big picture

Anyway, I'm off to examine the dailies and weeklies now for price action setups =D

Gotta keep learning so one day the pips are churnin'!

Trust price. Know yourself.

#709
Sep 17, 2006 11:46am Sep 17, 2006 11:46am

smjones
Joined Mar 2006 | Status: THANK YOU MERLIN,TWEE and FF Team | 4,603 Posts

Well, you can't go wrong with that.. LOL, scott

Quoting SeekingLight

Disliked

Hey Scott!
Yea, it's not over, I agree, but it would already have exceeded a 40 pip stop...okay, that would still be 3:1 R/R if we do end up down there and don't go any higher, just saying that the original .doc gives the impression that if a trade doesn't immediately go in the wanted direction, something's up. I guess one should keep stops pretty tight, because the trades that do deviate a lot exceed even tolerant S/L from what i've seen on some quick back checks....

But I'll come back to this system when I got more time on my hands, currently already busy learning as much as I can about James16 and having an eye for things / seeing the big picture

Anyway, I'm off to examine the dailies and weeklies now for price action setups =D

Gotta keep learning so one day the pips are churnin'!

Ignored

#710
Edited 12:36pm Sep 17, 2006 12:31pm | Edited 12:36pm

nutmg12
| Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Trader | 228 Posts

Quoting SeekingLight

Disliked

Hey Scott!
Yea, it's not over, I agree, but it would already have exceeded a 40 pip stop...okay, that would still be 3:1 R/R if we do end up down there and don't go any higher, just saying that the original .doc gives the impression that if a trade doesn't immediately go in the wanted direction, something's up. I guess one should keep stops pretty tight, because the trades that do deviate a lot exceed even tolerant S/L from what i've seen on some quick back checks....

But I'll come back to this system when I got more time on my hands, currently already busy learning as much as I can about James16 and having an eye for things / seeing the big picture

Anyway, I'm off to examine the dailies and weeklies now for price action setups =D

Gotta keep learning so one day the pips are churnin'!

Ignored

I was thinking the same thing. Since were all using different charting packages and broker feeds our targets will be different and therefore some of them won't be hit. Dial already stated that statistically over time it will balance out.
It’s been mentioned many times in this thread that patients is needed with a system like this to hit your targets and therefore make this a profitable system. I agree in principal but profitability in my opinion will depend on not letting your profits get away target hit or not.
I pasted where I think all open trades are on Interbank FX charts as of Friday's Close. Even though the targets haven’t been hit I don't think you can watch your trades go from being up 357 pips to the current level of 75 PIPS. If I was trading these all of my stops would have been hit. The cool thing is they all would have been closed for profit.
I excluded 2 trades. One was closed at target and the other went the wrong way soon after opening. It would have lost.
I am still pondering a SL method but will not post my ideas in anticipation of Mouteki's next post. There not really my ideas anyway as I am a student of the incredible community here at the Factory.
One interesting observation I've made is looking at these trades on a 5 minute chart after they are entered. You can see all sorts of places for stops at that level. It’s cool to see the Trend Lines and Target transferred to that time frame as well.
Its also interesting to see that the most any trade went in the negative was 30 pips.
I excluded 2 trades. One was closed at target and the other went the wrong way soon after opening. It would have lost.
The status report below doesn’t take Spread into account.
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</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 7.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 7.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7.5pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 7.5pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" u1:num>13<o

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</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 7.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 7.5pt; BACKGROUND: silver; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7.5pt; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 7.5pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">GBP USD<o

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</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 7.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 7.5pt; BACKGROUND: silver; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7.5pt; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 7.5pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">USD CHF<o

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</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 7.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 7.5pt; BACKGROUND: silver; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7.5pt; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 7.5pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">USD CAD<o

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</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 7.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 7.5pt; BACKGROUND: silver; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7.5pt; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 7.5pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt">TOTAL<o

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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Thanks for taking time out of your busy schedule to share your experience with us Mouteki. There are bone heads in every crowd but there are many more of us grateful for your hard work and kindness.
Thanks to Scott for managing this thread and deleting the posts that don't deserve our time.
<o

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Joe<o

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#711
Sep 17, 2006 12:36pm Sep 17, 2006 12:36pm

nathan_1
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 24 Posts

Well I have been back testing this in the year 2005. I am only up to August, but it just seems to work. I have had 20+ trades and only 3 of them went agaisnt me. If waited out it would eventually reverse and get to break even. Sometimes it only took a few days, but there was this one time it took like a week and you where in a 300 pip loss. But then it magically shot up and even meet the previous projected price. So good stuff here. Perhaps I will post my full year back test for you all to see. Still have 4 months to go.

#712
Sep 17, 2006 12:41pm Sep 17, 2006 12:41pm

nutmg12
| Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Trader | 228 Posts

Quoting nathan

Disliked

Well I have been back testing this in the year 2005. I am only up to August, but it just seems to work. I have had 20+ trades and only 3 of them went agaisnt me. If waited out it would eventually reverse and get to break even. Sometimes it only took a few days, but there was this one time it took like a week and you where in a 300 pip loss. But then it magically shot up and even meet the previous projected price. So good stuff here. Perhaps I will post my full year back test for you all to see. Still have 4 months to go.

Ignored

Are you saying all of the trades hit target? What rules you baseing your backtesting on?

#713
Sep 17, 2006 12:46pm Sep 17, 2006 12:46pm

nathan_1
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 24 Posts

I am saying the majority of them hit their target. I am just doing like it says in the doc. However I did add EMA 20 HL/2 to signal when to get out of a lossing trade. However all of those except one broke even.

#714
Sep 17, 2006 12:54pm Sep 17, 2006 12:54pm

nutmg12
| Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Trader | 228 Posts

Quoting nathan

Disliked

I am saying the majority of them hit their target. I am just doing like it says in the doc. However I did add EMA 20 HL/2 to signal when to get out of a lossing trade. However all of those except one broke even.

Ignored

Cool,
I'd love to see your results.

#715
Sep 17, 2006 1:09pm Sep 17, 2006 1:09pm

nathan_1
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 24 Posts

I am still working on it. I am determined to get 2005 tested. Then I will throw up a webpage with my results. Well the proof anyways ^^; I am really excited, there have been a few bad trades but those were my fault. Drew my lines not to current data and it got me. However, I have no stop loss. I hope after I study my trades I will be able to improve my techniuqe. Perhaps you guys may be able to provide some input once you see how I am trading. I am just so amazed on how it just seems to work. It seems to work TOO good, so I am skeptical if I will be able to produce same results on live trading. However, I would like to thank Mouteki for publishing his document. This really suits me. I love drawing those 7 lines.

#716
Sep 17, 2006 3:50pm Sep 17, 2006 3:50pm

ssteiner87
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 59 Posts

Does anyone else here see something crazy ready to happen to NZD/USD soon? Not only look at 4 hour charts but look at Daily chart too. (Not implying using Mouteki system on daily btw)

#717
Sep 17, 2006 4:40pm Sep 17, 2006 4:40pm

moonchild
| Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trader | 989 Posts

Quoting ssteiner87

Disliked

Does anyone else here see something crazy ready to happen to NZD/USD soon? Not only look at 4 hour charts but look at Daily chart too. (Not implying using Mouteki system on daily btw)

Ignored

Looking at the condition of the NZ economy, I cannot make sense of the amount of strengthening which has occurred in the past few months. The kiwi is affected by the AUD which has been strengthening lately but it would seem that the degree of strengthening of the kiwi with respect to the dollar is unlikely to be sustained since there is no good economic basis for it. There have been some mild improvement in the NZ economy, but considerably less that the improvement in the US economy, so just on fundamentals, I would be expecting this pair to crash some time in the not too distant future.

#718
Sep 17, 2006 4:49pm Sep 17, 2006 4:49pm

ssteiner87
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 59 Posts

Look at the news this week for both US and NZ. There is much demand of cope PPI coming out strong, so IF there is a disappointment it could be significant. Couple that with the more than likely no rate increase decision on Wed., the dollar looks to weaken this week and possibly start a long term uptrend for the NZD/USD. It is about to break a seemingly important long term trend line at around .6651. I posted this in another thread too, but i'll post here also. If you look around March 4-5th of this year, you'll notice it was important for the kiwi to open a candle under the .6651 support line.Now here in September that line is the resistance and has recently been touched. So when this breaks my 4 Hour chart Supply line (THANKS MOUTEKI) i shall long kiwi.....let me know what you think.

#719
Sep 17, 2006 5:05pm Sep 17, 2006 5:05pm

moonchild
| Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trader | 989 Posts

Quoting ssteiner87

Disliked

Look at the news this week for both US and NZ. There is much demand of cope PPI coming out strong, so IF there is a disappointment it could be significant. Couple that with the more than likely no rate increase decision on Wed., the dollar looks to weaken this week and possibly start a long term uptrend for the NZD/USD. It is about to break a seemingly important long term trend line at around .6651. I posted this in another thread too, but i'll post here also. If you look around March 4-5th of this year, you'll notice it was important for the kiwi to open a candle under the .6651 support line.Now here in September that line is the resistance and has recently been touched. So when this breaks my 4 Hour chart Supply line (THANKS MOUTEKI) i shall long kiwi.....let me know what you think.

Ignored

Most likely the lack of interest rate change is already factoured into the price. There are no important news releases for NZ in the coming week, but on the other hand, I think that there is a feeling that there may be a US interest rate increase before the end of the year. Just generally the decrease in commodity prices helps the USD and indirectly harms the NZD.
Going back to the March charts, there is strong resistance between .6575 and .6590 that may be very difficult for the pair to get past in the light of the fundamentals.

#720
Sep 17, 2006 5:15pm Sep 17, 2006 5:15pm

ssteiner87
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 59 Posts

I thought US was speculated to have a rate decrease in early 2007. Of course it is speculation

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