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NFP system - 5 minutes a month

  • #21
  • Jul 8, 2017 8:33pm Jul 8, 2017 8:33pm
RnL, can you please let us know how you performed your backtest?which software to analyze? Thanks buddy!

Regards,
Paul.

Quoting RnL
{quote} Hi cocolizo67 This is backtested result from 2010 to 2017. The result quite bad from the beginning but turned good since mid of 2016. 5 consecutively lost in 2010 and 2011. Jan-13 maximum accumulated pips lost down to -246. 11 consecutive win since Aug-2016 until now and brought up accumulated pips to 709. {image} It's scary me with this backtest...
  • #22
  • Jul 9, 2017 5:30am Jul 9, 2017 5:30am
Quoting cocolizo67
Here some backtest results from 2016 and 2017 Starting with a US$ 5,000 account you could have traded 1 lot on 2016 and 1.5 lots on 2017, and made around US$ 8,000. {image}
at May 2016 opening and closing is same , so no trade according to rule
  • #23
  • Jul 9, 2017 8:11am Jul 9, 2017 8:11am
Quoting cocolizo67
{quote} Yes. This is solved by letting it ride until Tuesday. That gives s much better R/R ratio (without hurting too much w/l ratio), enough to compensate for the losses. So you can choose between closing at the end of Monday, or if you are more aggresive you can close it at the end of TUESDAY. By the way, if the close price and open price on Friday are separated by only 5 pips or something like that, dont take the trade, it is obvious that the market hasnt made any decision of where to go (Example Dic. 02 of 2016) Forgot to mention that rule....
If Close and open price on Friday is to close and market has not made it's decision, will it not be to take a straddle trade instead ?
  • #24
  • Jul 9, 2017 8:28am Jul 9, 2017 8:28am
Quoting VEEFX
NFP reflects USA job market, reflects US economy, affects all USD pairs (and JPY+CHF if it triggers risk on/off global sentiment). Why EU only? Just because it has provided good results for the OP for past few yrs? Weekend Gap - They can f*ck up our entire account! Under normal conditions, brokers won't guarantee stops. During weekends, this strategy even with stops allows unlimited risk to your account with the potential of triggering negative balance unless lot size is 1 or 2x your trading capital.... and for these reasons, I would run away from...
A thought:
Placing a trade in both direction before closing time Fridag will that not eliminate most of the risk/potential loss you describe. Then Sunday evening/Monday morning if everything is as expected, close "the other trade in none desired direction" again with "Little loss". Just an idea, please correct me if that is a stupid idea as I have not calculated detailed on it!!!
  • #25
  • Jul 9, 2017 8:41am Jul 9, 2017 8:41am
Quoting cocolizo67
{quote} Hi Harpy, No I havent tried any other news realease. Since NFP is the most important news event, I only trade NFP. About the reasons behind this movement, it could be to the fact that NFP is a leading indicator (not a lagging) which in most of the cases influences and determines the trend for the rest of the month.
A new lesson for me to learn "nfp" the influence for the trend for the rest of the month. Thanks =D
  • #26
  • Jul 9, 2017 10:01am Jul 9, 2017 10:01am
In our Retail World, I think NFP is a bit overemphasized. NFP is forecasted by all leading hedge funds that need it and until there is no huge surprise it is priced in before the day, weeek (There are weekly jobless claims you could use for it and other data points)? Your system might still be right, you never know. There are other things like building permits and Producer and Consumer sentiments and more. If you put them at the end all together you forecast GDP and then inverse relative somehow to get the currency movement. This forecast would then be something a bit more valid for the next quarter. NFP does not predict a months movement.
Pat
  • #27
  • Jul 9, 2017 1:57pm Jul 9, 2017 1:57pm
Thanks for a very interesting strategy and and lot of hard work in backtesting!

The only drawback with opening trades at that time is the spread which is around 3 pips on my server - Just wondered if one could be a bit more aggressive and open a trade a little earlier?
  • #28
  • Jul 9, 2017 2:00pm Jul 9, 2017 2:00pm
Thank you for sharing! it really helps to improve the community as a whole!
  • #29
  • Jul 9, 2017 2:30pm Jul 9, 2017 2:30pm
This is definitely a good method for NFP. The question is if there something similar for other high-impact releases?
It takes money to make money.
  • #30
  • Jul 9, 2017 3:22pm Jul 9, 2017 3:22pm
Quoting fxolive
RnL, can you please let us know how you performed your backtest?which software to analyze? Thanks buddy! Regards, Paul. {quote}
I simply use Excel to calculate based on cocolizo67 's rules in his 1st post but slightly different.

  1. He open order 15 mins before market close on Friday but I use the close price of Friday, I don't think that makes much difference between the price of 15 minutes before market close and closing price.
  2. Close order at end of Tuesday.
  3. SL 50 pips.

In addition of this backtest.


IMHO. It's too risky to take this strategy trade since the result only good on mid of 2016-2017, If you were starting trade this strategy on 2010 you might be quite on 2012.

Attached Image
  • #31
  • Jul 9, 2017 4:05pm Jul 9, 2017 4:05pm
Another strategy would be to look at the % of gap fills from Sunday open and look at the % of price revisiting Sunday opening price during the trading week.

Hint: EU actually has a higher % of both.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #32
  • Jul 9, 2017 4:13pm Jul 9, 2017 4:13pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
Another strategy would be to look at the % of gap fills from Sunday open and look at the % of price revisiting Sunday opening price during the trading week. Hint: EU actually has a higher % of both.
Market isn't open on Sunday.
It takes money to make money.
  • #33
  • Jul 9, 2017 4:30pm Jul 9, 2017 4:30pm
Quoting Harpy
{quote} Market isn't open on Sunday.
Eastern US time zone.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #34
  • Jul 10, 2017 4:31am Jul 10, 2017 4:31am
Quoting cocolizo67
Hi Guys, I have been trading for almost 10 years. Basically trading my own EAs, and some manual trading. I am going to share with you one of my systems. It only takes 5 minutes per month, and the rules are very simple: - Pair: Eur/Usd - On the day of NFP release (Friday) , wait 15minutes before the end of the day. If the current price is higher than the open price of the day then place a SELL ORDER. If the current price is lower then the open price of the day then place a BUY ORDER. - If the open price and close price of Friday are very close, like...
Is it me or with a 50 pips Stop Loss, it would have hit it by now using Friday closing price ?
  • #35
  • Jul 10, 2017 8:48am Jul 10, 2017 8:48am
Sorry my bad, apparently I need education in PIP calculation :-)
  • #36
  • Jul 10, 2017 11:04pm Jul 10, 2017 11:04pm
So you bet at least use a professional gambler, adjust it at the set time, and get 12 positive outcomes throughout the year. The gambler is the little martingale - post is of Joancb. Look for it in the search engine.Or do not bother with nonsense and waste your time and money that way. Good luck
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 UnNomGuaiV1.11.ex4   27 KB | 409 downloads
  • #37
  • Jul 11, 2017 7:26am Jul 11, 2017 7:26am
Quoting arteks
So you bet at least use a professional gambler, adjust it at the set time, and get 12 positive outcomes throughout the year. The gambler is the little martingale - post is of Joancb. Look for it in the search engine.Or do not bother with nonsense and waste your time and money that way. Good luck {file}
This kind of posts are not allowed here. Will be deleted soon, as well as any other post that has nothing to do with the thread.
  • #38
  • Jul 11, 2017 10:38am Jul 11, 2017 10:38am
I open buy order in early Monday morning and now 30 pips profit. I guess waiting till end of today huh?
  • #39
  • Jul 11, 2017 12:55pm Jul 11, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting Nickhalden
I open buy order in early Monday morning and now 30 pips profit. I guess waiting till end of today huh?

70 pips by now? Wow it certainly worked out!

Caught my interest that's for sure. I noticed that EURCAD played a similar game
  • #40
  • Jul 11, 2017 4:10pm Jul 11, 2017 4:10pm
Closing the trade now.

Up 19%.

Nex trade will be August 4
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