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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #30,141
  • Jul 9, 2017 3:02pm Jul 9, 2017 3:02pm
Quoting crixus
{quote} I am not Jmezz but i'd like to offer some of my observations as i think they may help you understand why his trade had a high probability to succeed IMO. I am using MT4 and the CDF for Dow on a 15 min interval as i am not on my usual trading computer where i can use Ninja/Futures YM. Pretty close to it anyway. Longer term view {image} Close up view {image} The key point to note is when price broke above the open with strength and the pullback to test the open on diminushing volume. In proportion to the strength we can conclude the bears...

Hello crixus thanks for your view on this.
I'm still learning and I really appreciate every comment and opinion.
Very interesting how you identified that range and the above-below zones.
I remember looking at this longer term picture before the start of the session and all I saw was messy orderflow with no clear NSLs or NSHs.
This sheds a different light on it :-)

Second picture
I have difficulties interpreting the volume bars in conjunction with the candles, and deriving the conclusion that the bears are not interested.
I do see the first candle of your selected period in the volume section is a large pinbar with high volume, indicating (to me) that there was a lot of selling but price got pushed back all the way up, indicating a lot of strength from the bulls.
Then the volume diminishes. But that volume consists of buyers and sellers, so both buyers and sellers are diminishing in volume, right? And since price is going down I'd say that in this diminishing volume the bears had the upperhand?
It is not until I see the bullish candle bouncing off the open on high volume that I conclude the bulls are serious?
Tell me where I'm wrong thanks :-)
  • #30,142
  • Jul 10, 2017 12:30am Jul 10, 2017 12:30am
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Held open and 382. Thought I got shafted by entering too early on rotation bar but it played out. Was looking to 43, 50, then 62 as targets. Once IB high was broken and we tested the 113 I decided to bail. {image}
Congrats to your trade. I did not see what you saw. I ended BE.
  • #30,143
  • Jul 10, 2017 2:54am Jul 10, 2017 2:54am
So a new week begins lets see what we can achieve this week

My own goal is just to trade every day with no mistakes (I don't mean no losing trades but error free trades ensure I manage them correctly) ill be happy with that regardless of results the results are a side effect of that

best of luck every one
  • #30,144
  • Jul 10, 2017 3:12am Jul 10, 2017 3:12am
short CL

just reduced some risk as hit my red line also looking to change direction on the 1:1 completion depending on momentum as 2 1:1 completions merge other clues to the left include structure
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL 08-17 (233 Tick) 2017_07_05.png Size: 102 KB
  • #30,145
  • Jul 10, 2017 3:21am Jul 10, 2017 3:21am
Quoting johny8984
So a new week begins lets see what we can achieve this week My own goal is just to trade every day with no mistakes (I don't mean no losing trades but error free trades ensure I manage them correctly) ill be happy with that regardless of results the results are a side effect of that best of luck every one
I have the same goal. I guess that's everyone's goal every week but we tend to lose focus.
Good luck to you too, but most of all discipline and focus
  • #30,146
  • Jul 10, 2017 3:25am Jul 10, 2017 3:25am
in a B/E position now lets see how this pans out

UPDATE: out at B/E plus 2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL 08-17 (233 Tick) 2017_07_05.png Size: 102 KB
  • #30,147
  • Jul 10, 2017 5:06am Jul 10, 2017 5:06am
USDJPY short
Expectation intraday is NSH
Price came down and barely touched my AOI.
I expected price to correct deeper.
Saw the bears trying to stop the bulls.
Bears produced nice candle.
Waited for a correction of that and went short.
Target is a deeper correction as indicated.
Here I am going against expectation again..
But I felt I had reasons to do so. Might be wrong..
SL is pretty tight. My reasoning: if the bears give away that giant candle then they're probably not as strong as I expected and my reasons for being in the trade are no longer there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,148
  • Jul 10, 2017 5:44am Jul 10, 2017 5:44am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} I have the same goal. I guess that's everyone's goal every week but we tend to lose focus. Good luck to you too, but most of all discipline and focus
Is going againts the trend or strong hand an error in your book?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_error.jpg Size: 192 KB
  • #30,149
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:05am Jul 10, 2017 6:05am
Quoting crixus
{quote} Is going againts the trend or strong hand an error in your book? {image}
No not an error but I'm still trying to figure out whether I should avoid it at all times or not.
My trade plan (or the few rules that I noted down that are the start of a trade plan) explicitly allows it actually, but also with a warning to myself that I might be taking a low probability trade.

According to the range you marked there's a higher probability price will drop?
Or it may bounce off the top of the range it just left and I'm screwed :-)
  • #30,150
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:08am Jul 10, 2017 6:08am
YM went past my AOI at 21375.
bears seem to be accelerating.
I guess I might be looking for a short soon?
Anybody else?
  • #30,151
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:20am Jul 10, 2017 6:20am
Quoting PeterT
YM went past my AOI at 21375. bears seem to be accelerating. I guess I might be looking for a short soon? Anybody else?
nothing for me as I like to wait for the open in a couple of hours before I look at YM
  • #30,152
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:33am Jul 10, 2017 6:33am
Hi everyone new day new week, hope everyone has a great week in the market .

Just got back from work and saw this on my chart

NQ: Price made a NSH and overrall trend seems pretty bullish however price seems to be accelerating downwards not sure if i should be taking this entry or wait till market opens.

YM: Price also made a NSH however momentum seems to be pretty strong for the bears now but it is now at the previous structure now and it seems like a pretty good time to go bull?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 09-17 (377 Tick) 2017_07_10.png Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-17 (233 Tick) 2017_07_10.png Size: 103 KB
  • #30,153
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:36am Jul 10, 2017 6:36am
Quoting johny8984
{quote} nothing for me as I like to wait for the open in a couple of hours before I look at YM
Any particular reason why you wait for the open?
Just because you want more volume?
Or because there is a risk involved in trading before the open?
  • #30,154
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:38am Jul 10, 2017 6:38am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Any particular reason why you wait for the open? Just because you want more volume? Or because there is a risk involved in trading before the open?
just a bit slow I find so yeah waiting for the volume to turn up I guess
  • #30,155
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:45am Jul 10, 2017 6:45am
Quoting PeterT
USDJPY short
Set to BE
  • #30,156
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:53am Jul 10, 2017 6:53am
Quoting Aluunatic
Hi everyone new day new week, hope everyone has a great week in the market . Just got back from work and saw this on my chart NQ: Price made a NSH and overrall trend seems pretty bullish however price seems to be accelerating downwards not sure if i should be taking this entry or wait till market opens. YM: Price also made a NSH however momentum seems to be pretty strong for the bears now but it is now at the previous structure now and it seems like a pretty good time to go bull? {image} {image}
YM: If you go bull you have a very good R:R ratio :-)
But bears seem too strong for me personally to go long.
Bear candles with volume, reached 100% correction..
I'm waiting for more information now..
  • #30,157
  • Jul 10, 2017 7:06am Jul 10, 2017 7:06am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} YM: If you go bull you have a very good R:R ratio :-) But bears seem too strong for me personally to go long. Bear candles with volume, reached 100% correction.. I'm waiting for more information now..

hehe thanks think im gonna wait for market open then make the decision and it looks like i miss the train on NQ
  • #30,158
  • Jul 10, 2017 7:11am Jul 10, 2017 7:11am
Quoting Aluunatic
{quote} hehe thanks think im gonna wait for market open then make the decision and it looks like i miss the train on NQ
I'm monitoring NQ too. Price came past my AOI at 5666 with bit of a strong candle.
I thought price would correct deeper so waited.
Now it does look like the train left
  • #30,159
  • Jul 10, 2017 7:18am Jul 10, 2017 7:18am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Set to BE
What a struggle.. out at BE
  • #30,160
  • Jul 10, 2017 8:24am Jul 10, 2017 8:24am
Decided to take the long on NQ

Edit: Moved to BE +1
Edit2: Taken out +8.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 09-17 (377 Tick) 2017_07_10.png Size: 92 KB
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