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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #25,321
  • Jul 8, 2017 10:50pm Jul 8, 2017 10:50pm
Quoting copi88
{quote} Hey Malcolmb, welcome back. good to see you posting again. Agreed 146.30 is a massive level. 3 days of POC running through that price point. Trend is up however its bearish looking market profile with volume tapering towards the top edge. Its not a clear rejection of higher prices so I expect the market to go test the green box to see if there is any more business to be had up there. If volume decreases into the box then expect a reversal. For the trend to reverse the market needs to print a POC below 146.30. {image}
Copi

Strong possibility to go up into the green box as its an area of supply and professional money usually tests these major s/r to " dry up " demand prior to dropping a market .

I used to use POCS alot and they are very useful. But in recent years have dropped them off my charts.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #25,322
  • Jul 9, 2017 9:03am Jul 9, 2017 9:03am
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if you my trade,My-post analysis, subscribed to ME
  • #25,323
  • Jul 9, 2017 4:15pm Jul 9, 2017 4:15pm
Long at 146.80, looking for 40 pips.
Let's see now.
  • #25,324
  • Jul 9, 2017 4:37pm Jul 9, 2017 4:37pm
Bank of Japan Kuroda's speech plus JPY Trade Balance report in a few hours, not sure if it's going to have any impact on the Yen, as always.

Well maybe 10 pips, and I am generous
  • #25,325
  • Jul 9, 2017 6:55pm Jul 9, 2017 6:55pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Bank of Japan Kuroda's speech plus JPY Trade Balance report in a few hours, not sure if it's going to have any impact on the Yen, as always. Well maybe 10 pips, and I am generous
--- Ajummmm.... true.....



:::
  • #25,326
  • Jul 9, 2017 7:42pm Jul 9, 2017 7:42pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Long at 146.80, looking for 40 pips.
Sold half my position at 1.47.
  • #25,327
  • Jul 9, 2017 7:48pm Jul 9, 2017 7:48pm
Quoting bigboss
{quote} --- Ajummmm.... true..... :::
I don't know what Kuroda said but who cares

CNY Producer Price Index in less than 45 minutes, the Yuan can move the Yen in a big way sometimes, so watch out for this one...
  • #25,328
  • Jul 9, 2017 7:55pm Jul 9, 2017 7:55pm
Fly Dragon, fly!

Next possible stop is 147.20 (my target precisely, what a strange coincidence )
  • #25,329
  • Jul 9, 2017 8:03pm Jul 9, 2017 8:03pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Long at 146.80, looking for 40 pips. Let's see now.
And out at 147.20, +40 pips in less than 4 hours.
Thanks Mr. Dragon.

Now beat it and go read a book or something.
  • #25,330
  • Jul 9, 2017 8:56pm Jul 9, 2017 8:56pm
So what is the most probable scenario for this week?

Very simple, up to 148 and then down down down, free fall style, end of story

Inserted Video
  • #25,331
  • Jul 9, 2017 10:27pm Jul 9, 2017 10:27pm
GBPJPY Short
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  • #25,332
  • Jul 10, 2017 3:21am Jul 10, 2017 3:21am
Quoting copi88
{quote} Hey Malcolmb, welcome back. good to see you posting again. Agreed 146.30 is a massive level. 3 days of POC running through that price point. Trend is up however its bearish looking market profile with volume tapering towards the top edge. Its not a clear rejection of higher prices so I expect the market to go test the green box to see if there is any more business to be had up there. If volume decreases into the box then expect a reversal. For the trend to reverse the market needs to print a POC below 146.30. {image}

Did exactly as planned.. found no more buyers up at in the 40s and sold off.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #25,333
  • Jul 10, 2017 5:34am Jul 10, 2017 5:34am
Quoting copi88
{quote} Did exactly as planned.. found no more buyers up at in the 40s and sold off.
A smallish drop for the dragon .. 45 pip ...

DAX is in very tight range today and not broken its open range, it tried to break to the upside and failed. Gold had a nice move from 1211 to 1204.5 in frankie but static since.

Hope that markets shake loose in usa session
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #25,334
  • Jul 10, 2017 5:44am Jul 10, 2017 5:44am
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} A smallish drop for the dragon .. 45 pip ... DAX is in very tight range today and not broken its open range, it tried to break to the upside and failed. Gold had a nice move from 1211 to 1204.5 in frankie but static since. Hope that markets shake loose in usa session
The chart below shows the main value drivers for GJ. You can see that it went up whilst value went down.
You can see that value is still far below so at the moment it still have some way to go, value can change though....

At the moment the risk on sentiment is keeping it elevated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: caq3U83.png Size: 186 KB
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #25,335
  • Jul 10, 2017 5:51am Jul 10, 2017 5:51am
Quoting copi88
{quote} The chart below shows the main value drivers for GJ. You can see that it went up whilst value went down. You can see that value is still far below so at the moment it still have some way to go, value can change though.... At the moment the risk on sentiment is keeping it elevated. {image}
Overall the market seems slow in London today. I live in Dubai now .. awesome hours for trading 10 am to 11 pm..and tax free, I like to catch first two hour London and overlap at around 4:30 pm my time.

Gold, dax, gbpusd , and eurusd all in very tight ranges now .... maybe us session brings us some movement. If that happens Gj may do something interesting.

DAX is much like dragon ... it moves 160 points a day, but much more in a nice trend once it break open range. i switched to trading some months back and trade it more than forex these days.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #25,336
  • Jul 10, 2017 5:55am Jul 10, 2017 5:55am
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} Overall the market seems slow in London today. I live in Dubai now .. awesome hours for trading 10 am to 11 pm..and tax free, I like to catch first two hour London and overlap at around 4:30 pm my time. Gold, dax, gbpusd , and eurusd all in very tight ranges now .... maybe us session brings us some movement. If that happens Gj may do something interesting. DAX is much like dragon ... it moves 160 points a day, but much more in a nice trend once it break open range. i switched to trading some months back and trade it more than forex these...
This is what I have on gbpjpy 60 .... and why I would not trade her till under 146 .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1.png Size: 37 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #25,337
  • Jul 10, 2017 5:56am Jul 10, 2017 5:56am
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} This is what I have on gbpjpy 60 .... and why I would not trade her till under 146 . {image}
sorry bigger chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1 r1.png Size: 93 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #25,338
  • Jul 10, 2017 6:46am Jul 10, 2017 6:46am
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} Overall the market seems slow in London today. I live in Dubai now .. awesome hours for trading 10 am to 11 pm..and tax free, I like to catch first two hour London and overlap at around 4:30 pm my time. Gold, dax, gbpusd , and eurusd all in very tight ranges now .... maybe us session brings us some movement. If that happens Gj may do something interesting. DAX is much like dragon ... it moves 160 points a day, but much more in a nice trend once it break open range. i switched to trading some months back and trade it more than forex these...
Dubai does have great hours for London.
I get up at 5:30 to be ready in time for Frankfurt open.

Never traded DAX, dont have an intrinsic model for it. The style of trading I use is called statistical arbitrage trading where we build models (like the one I posted above) to value an instrument ie measures its intrinsic value. When price deviates from its intrinsic value you then have a high probability that it will revert back to its value. The skill is then to find the correct entry using orderflow and other technical analysis techniques like VSA.

Sold some more GJ. Risk Off was coming back into the market.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #25,339
  • Jul 10, 2017 8:16am Jul 10, 2017 8:16am
We are below the high of that supply bar with the arrow on it .... should drop into 146
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1.png Size: 92 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #25,340
  • Jul 10, 2017 9:00am Jul 10, 2017 9:00am
--- I46.900 is my line in the sand. If MA 9 cross that line, I will take it as trend change and all only sell.


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