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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #25,301
  • Jul 6, 2017 9:35pm Jul 6, 2017 9:35pm
--- Dammitt...!!... I closed my long and go for a break just to see the Dragon fly. I missed.......

Oh, well... some other time......



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  • #25,302
  • Jul 6, 2017 9:48pm Jul 6, 2017 9:48pm
NEWS | 25 minutes ago
GBP/JPY clocks 8-week high in Asia, breaches 2-yr long downtrend line
By Omkar Godbole
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GBP/JPY cross jumped to an 8-week high of 147.56 after the BOJ exercised its control over the Japanese bond yields via increased bond purchases.
Falling trend line breached
The descending trend line coming from Aug 2015 high and November 2015 has been breached, although as per the textbook rules, a bullish break would be confirmed only if the end of the day close on July 31 is above the trend line hurdle.
Again, monetary policy divergence is at play here. The latest sound bites from the Bank of England (BoE) have been hawkish. Moreover, the central bank is under pressure to hike rates/at least reverse last years rate cut in order to curb rising inflation. On the other hand, the BoJ intervention in the bond markets today has made it clear that the central bank is in no mood to let go its ultra accommodative policy.
GBP/JPY Technical Levels
The pair was last seen trading around 147.50 levels. A break above 148.11 (May 10 high) would expose resistance at 148.46 (Dec 15, 2016 high) and 149.00 (zero levels). On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 147.26 (July 6 high of 4-hour chart) could yield a pullback to 146.64 (10-DMA on 4-hour) and 145.98 (July 4 low on 4-hour).
TREND INDEXOB/OS INDEXVOLATILY INDEX
15MSlightly BullishOverboughtHigh
1HBullishOverboughtExpanding
4HBearishNeutralHigh
1DBullishOverboughtExpanding
1WBullishNeutralHigh
Updated Jul 7, 02:00 GMT
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jp...e-201707070216

Mmmmm.... For me, monthly trend down will be breached when 148.000 level is pierced.......


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  • #25,303
  • Jul 6, 2017 9:59pm Jul 6, 2017 9:59pm
Who is up at least 500 pips since last Monday for GBP/JPY?
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #25,304
  • Jul 6, 2017 10:07pm Jul 6, 2017 10:07pm
Quoting bigboss
--- Dammitt...!!... I closed my long and go for a break just to see the Dragon fly. I missed....... Oh, well... some other time...... ::::::
Down 13 grand on my side, I know the feeling pal

Bite the bullet and move on.

You lose some and you win some but you keep on fighting.

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  • #25,305
  • Jul 6, 2017 10:58pm Jul 6, 2017 10:58pm
I hear ya there. I've been in good and had the right idea only to barely miss my tp and not catch it till I lost all the profit or I'd have a big gain only to close out and try to get back in too quickly instead of being more meticulous in my entries.
  • #25,306
  • Jul 7, 2017 6:12am Jul 7, 2017 6:12am
Below==>@146.058===>short145.900[break]==>strong
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,307
  • Jul 7, 2017 7:01am Jul 7, 2017 7:01am
Quoting Mr Breakout
Seems like the cable breakout to the upside is about to fail again (see chart above). If that's the case it could fall hard.
And it did fall hard, indeed, as the breakout to the upside went nowhere, as expected (see chart).
(Got all my money back on this down move, plus change.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,308
  • Jul 7, 2017 7:25am Jul 7, 2017 7:25am
Torpedo impact in 5 minutes, get ready folks...
  • #25,309
  • Jul 7, 2017 7:28am Jul 7, 2017 7:28am
I guess bulls got rejected..... I'm long x3... If it breaks 146.45 we will drop 60+ pips to 145.85...
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #25,310
  • Jul 7, 2017 7:31am Jul 7, 2017 7:31am
YES!!!
  • #25,311
  • Jul 7, 2017 7:40am Jul 7, 2017 7:40am
Wow my longs closed in profit
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #25,312
  • Jul 7, 2017 7:45am Jul 7, 2017 7:45am
Quoting Quickiepip
Wow my longs closed in profit
Yep, good call.
Personally I went short the Canadian dollar.
  • #25,313
  • Jul 7, 2017 8:51am Jul 7, 2017 8:51am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Yep, good call. Personally I went short the Canadian dollar.
Wow better move
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #25,314
  • Jul 7, 2017 1:44pm Jul 7, 2017 1:44pm
Quoting Quickiepip
{quote} Wow better move
Thanks.

In general the reaction of the Canadian dollar (and its crosses) after the Employment reports from Canada is much stronger than the one from the US Non-farm payrolls (on other currencies).

I will be watching this pair as some very important Canadian financial reports are due Wednesday, July 12...
  • #25,315
  • Jul 7, 2017 4:23pm Jul 7, 2017 4:23pm
No so sure about breakout the 148 level...
I see loss of strength and momentum, something that i would expect over the resistance.
Anyway, still doesnt confirm. If breakout next week, wait for thowback. If it doesnt, wait for loss the 146 support and go short all the way till the line to 142 (nice price of 4000 pips)

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  • #25,316
  • Jul 7, 2017 4:51pm Jul 7, 2017 4:51pm
Quoting Mastropiero
No so sure about breakout the 148 level... I see loss of strength and momentum, something that i would expect over the resistance.
Yes the Dragon is probably going to hit 148 next week and say something like "Alright folks, that's as far as I am going to go, everybody out now, time for me to go South."
  • #25,317
  • Jul 7, 2017 8:49pm Jul 7, 2017 8:49pm
GJ, make it simple.
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  • #25,318
  • Jul 7, 2017 10:47pm Jul 7, 2017 10:47pm
Quoting PandoraBox
GJ, make it simple. {image}
Here is your same daily chart but seen from a different angle, the "get-ready-to-short-the-hell-out-of-the-Pound/Yen" angle...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,319
  • Jul 8, 2017 12:02am Jul 8, 2017 12:02am
hi all I have not posted in forex factory forever ... I used to trade GBPJPY only but focus more on majors these days , GOLD and the index futures (dax and s&P)

I trade using volumes , bars and price action only within trends.

Here is my take on GBPJPY

  1. Supply seen on 4 hour some days ago
  2. Bottom of the bar is 146.30. This remains key support for now with buy dips above this level.
  3. If we get a one hour close under this level down side targets on daily 146 / 144.50
  4. GBPJPY remains at KEY resistance level in the chart and anyone trying to take an early sell may be in trouble very quickly , as GBPJPY has a habit of being irrational that is why I stick to majors these days.
  5. We have a two bar reversal on 4 hour , which adds to the weakness seen
  6. This pair is a no trade for me on but will be looking for sells if 146 breaks. Other than that, as trend on 4 hour is still up (overall)..as seen on green triangle on attached charts .. Its buy dips.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,320
  • Jul 8, 2017 10:23am Jul 8, 2017 10:23am
Quoting malcolmb14
hi all I have not posted in forex factory forever ... I used to trade GBPJPY only but focus more on majors these days , GOLD and the index futures (dax and s&P) I trade using volumes , bars and price action only within trends. Here is my take on GBPJPY Supply seen on 4 hour some days ago Bottom of the bar is 146.30. This remains key support for now with buy dips above this level. If we get a one hour close under this level down side targets on daily 146 / 144.50 GBPJPY remains at KEY resistance level in the chart and anyone trying to take an early...
Hey Malcolmb, welcome back. good to see you posting again.

Agreed 146.30 is a massive level. 3 days of POC running through that price point.
Trend is up however its bearish looking market profile with volume tapering towards the top edge.

Its not a clear rejection of higher prices so I expect the market to go test the green box to see if there is any more business to be had up there. If volume decreases into the box then expect a reversal.

For the trend to reverse the market needs to print a POC below 146.30.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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