I have been tracking this thread for some months although not trading it, a few points are now really standing out to me.
Im going to make a few constructive criticisms in the form of a couple questions, if you can't answer ALL of these questions then I personally I think you are just gambling on a few people posting "eur/usd ++ pips"
hopefully this doesn't offend people and is for the good of the thread as I also plan to trade this strategy.
All of the questions apply to the rules as stated on page 1, not including any variances.
1) what is the strike rate of this strategy on each currency pair over the last 12 months of data? Of the majors as a whole? Or whatever you decide to trade if you take every setup according to the base rules.
2) what is the maximum & average drawdown over the last year?
3) what is the average risk to reward ratio over the last year?
4) how many setups occur on average per month?
5) what is the optimum stop loss while retaining a decent risk to reward ratio. For example; if I set a maximium stop loss of 100 pips, how many of the setups over the last year would have still been profitable? How many if I set to 80 pips etc.
Honestly these are just the first few questions that popped into my head, I wouldn't be able to trust in my strategy or trade with confidence with out knowing these at the absolute minimium.
I think all of these can be answered with a solid back test and good detailed journal of forward testing.
I hope this has changed the perspective of some, to know if a strategy works. It takes a lot more work than just what it seems on the surface.
Im going to make a few constructive criticisms in the form of a couple questions, if you can't answer ALL of these questions then I personally I think you are just gambling on a few people posting "eur/usd ++ pips"
hopefully this doesn't offend people and is for the good of the thread as I also plan to trade this strategy.
All of the questions apply to the rules as stated on page 1, not including any variances.
1) what is the strike rate of this strategy on each currency pair over the last 12 months of data? Of the majors as a whole? Or whatever you decide to trade if you take every setup according to the base rules.
2) what is the maximum & average drawdown over the last year?
3) what is the average risk to reward ratio over the last year?
4) how many setups occur on average per month?
5) what is the optimum stop loss while retaining a decent risk to reward ratio. For example; if I set a maximium stop loss of 100 pips, how many of the setups over the last year would have still been profitable? How many if I set to 80 pips etc.
Honestly these are just the first few questions that popped into my head, I wouldn't be able to trust in my strategy or trade with confidence with out knowing these at the absolute minimium.
I think all of these can be answered with a solid back test and good detailed journal of forward testing.
I hope this has changed the perspective of some, to know if a strategy works. It takes a lot more work than just what it seems on the surface.
