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  • #1,121,521
  • Jul 5, 2017 2:37pm Jul 5, 2017 2:37pm
I have a good feeling that no matter how good or bad NFP will be , E going back to 1440. If 1360 closed today or tomorrow there is nothing left to break. That push down confused me a little but market reacted exactly as I expected. Fuck dollar. This summer we sell dollar. Until Fed make something up again. Long 1340. Good luck everyone!
  • #1,121,522
  • Jul 5, 2017 2:39pm Jul 5, 2017 2:39pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I estimated that we will have 4 consecutive RED candles on daily chart after NY close.. the chances of 5 consecutive red candles on daily are very low (not imposssible but low) so I decided to mention that Thursday might become a bullish day (blue daily candle, or maybe doji).. But first, of course I am waiting to see clear confirmation: I would like to see 15m candles close above 1.1345 and even better above 1.1358 to see strong bullish action. Mainly based on H4 chart below. Stay Green {image}
Thank you my Friend for good advices. As long as your vision matches mine I am on the right side.
  • #1,121,523
  • Jul 5, 2017 2:41pm Jul 5, 2017 2:41pm
From the weekly time frame perspective, price action is yet to break the market structure to the downside. If the current move up sees price action retesting the immediate resistance at the 1.1480 area, it may expose the 1.1650 handle.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I sincerely wish you are right brother, I believe many of us here could benefit from bearish priceaction.. but I have that sticky habit to see nothing for granted before numbers come out.. Stay Green
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,121,524
  • Edited 2:57pm Jul 5, 2017 2:45pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting KeenPips
From the weekly time frame perspective, price action is yet to break the market structure to the downside. If the current move up sees price action retesting the immediate resistance at the 1.1480 area, it may expose the 1.1650 handle. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
The market is in a consolidation mode, but the technical disposition overall is southwards.

KP


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,121,525
  • Jul 5, 2017 2:46pm Jul 5, 2017 2:46pm
Quoting EmmeLegend
{quote} Thankyou very much :-) 1.1345 is 38.2 fibo and 1.1358 is EMA200 @ m15? :-)
And if we look at Daily chart we can see that 1.1323 was the badass support point together with 10 EMA that didn't allow price to fall back into blue channel which it broke out from. Very important level on Daily...

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,121,526
  • Jul 5, 2017 3:03pm Jul 5, 2017 3:03pm
Quoting KeenPips
From the weekly time frame perspective, price action is yet to break the market structure to the downside. If the current move up sees price action retesting the immediate resistance at the 1.1480 area, it may expose the 1.1650 handle. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
I understand what you are pointing at.. but we must also be aware that price is now inside fib 78.6 to 88.6 sell zone. That area will resist massively.

If we assume the ascending wedge upper edge (thin blue trendline) is some sort of a last resistance area then the highest point price could rise this week is 1.1527 and coming week 1.1580. Anything higher than these levels are still possible but imho won't happen inside this or coming week. Just thinking out loud.. market does what it wants to do of course. So long story short, I try not to go that far to 1.1650 levels yet.. we can leave that for later..

*Sorry, ignore the "next week" label on the chart.. I forgot to remove that.. it is the current week..

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,121,527
  • Jul 5, 2017 3:03pm Jul 5, 2017 3:03pm
Hey every one my view says that eur is on a retracement towards the 1.2960 area and will bounce back up to recent highs from there on So short now & go long in that area..
  • #1,121,528
  • Jul 5, 2017 3:11pm Jul 5, 2017 3:11pm
Happy Reading Traders
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=681124
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Self discipline It is a practice
  • #1,121,529
  • Jul 5, 2017 3:30pm Jul 5, 2017 3:30pm
Quoting okshop
Happy Reading Traders https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=681124 {image}
40-60% of their profit is from FX? Really?!? Will have to see if I can audit some of that out. I'm having a bit of trouble believing that. Although does DOD FRANK not limit currency speculation or something? haha. I suppose it is about the market making more than prop for them? haha really curious now.
  • #1,121,530
  • Jul 5, 2017 3:33pm Jul 5, 2017 3:33pm
Quoting Shaun32
Would I be wrong by buying now? as the trend seems to be bullish and I don't see it going down any time soon?
The better approach would be to make your decision right after London opening tomorrow.. if you open a trade right now you probably will get bored of low volatility.. often it's not worth to open trades after London close.. therefore decide tomorrow bro.. my humble advice..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,121,531
  • Jul 5, 2017 3:56pm Jul 5, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting skillz16
{quote} 40-60% of their profit is from FX? Really?!? Will have to see if I can audit some of that out. I'm having a bit of trouble believing that. Although does DOD FRANK not limit currency speculation or something? haha. I suppose it is about the market making more than prop for them? haha really curious now.
yep exactly what i thought from that
  • #1,121,532
  • Jul 5, 2017 4:17pm Jul 5, 2017 4:17pm
Dollar is trying to recover but still in a weak position. With its current strength it might touch into 1.12's but unlikely to break anything important there. Needs some heavy fundamental shift to strengthen while euro is holding its strength vs everything. Maybe nfp can give that, but I think even a good nfp at their current state would just spike down and then it will resume up shortly erasing any dollar gains. Need either some very bad EZ news or some hike talk. Remaining bullish in eur.
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  • #1,121,533
  • Jul 5, 2017 4:20pm Jul 5, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} yep exactly what i thought from that
i would love to know how they actually work

i mean, i cant imagine them losing...not like another bank is going to turn around and be like ah we will bet against Barclays
  • #1,121,534
  • Jul 5, 2017 4:22pm Jul 5, 2017 4:22pm
Quoting okshop
Happy Reading Traders https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=681124 {image}

It shows they place their best traders on the majors.......so every day be aware of that...
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,121,535
  • Jul 5, 2017 4:25pm Jul 5, 2017 4:25pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} i would love to know how they actually work i mean, i cant imagine them losing...not like another bank is going to turn around and be like ah we will bet against Barclays
My strong bet would be they just "make the market" and make bespoke derivatives to hedge for their clients "FX risk forward in time", then go to the futures market to hedge that out... and that they make most of their money buying, selling, and "creating" these. Really a guess though based on some experience I've had.

I'd think they would not be "prop betting" like we all do, and not sitting around waiting on positions and "trend riding" but rather "bridging markets" and earning spread. I'm not sure how you would technically earn big returns from that though. I'm confuzzled also... haha.
  • #1,121,536
  • Jul 5, 2017 4:31pm Jul 5, 2017 4:31pm
wow could someone actually explain it

i mean for barclays and co to sell, someone must have a shit load... surely they can just make whatever money they want... but where does that money come from
  • #1,121,537
  • Edited 5:16pm Jul 5, 2017 5:02pm | Edited 5:16pm
Quoting Don96
wow could someone actually explain it i mean for barclays and co to sell, someone must have a shit load... surely they can just make whatever money they want... but where does that money come from
Well, from what I've seen it is companies hedging "forward" - they know that they will recieve around a certain amount in foreign currency in the future and they want to lock in the USD price to convert back to USD NOW. And they pay a spread to get it done. And Barclays or whomever usually seems to use a forward contract or something synthetic hedged out by Barclays with the future- for delivery in a future time period. So the BID-ASK spread on the synthetic, and the fact that it is so leveraged, is what pays Barclays from what I've seen. From what I've seen, the buying/selling of their futures is incidental and related just to Barclays trying to stay neutral hedging their derivative/synthetic they sold.

Basically, say GE has sales in the UK. It knows it needs to bring a certain amount home in the future into USD at a set date and put that on its statements so that they know what they are worth/can use that "locked in amount" for other financial needs (inventory pledging stuff?). They want to lock in the price of something in the other currency for the future TODAY. So they project amounts, then hedge it usually. And they change the hedges over time sometimes in response to the market. They also have to buy/sell FUTS to try to stay "neutral" sometimes. So basically long story short, I think a lot of international companies do this so it pays the banks well - I think.

I'm basically confused how it pays REALLY well though supposedly... with computers, even synthetics markets are becoming "commoditized." Guess it is just the CRAP TON of money involved that makes it so?

EDIT: the other common example is say a primarily US mid-size company that has one business contract abroad for completion at/by a specific date. They usually want everything to be in USD and so they will do these deals. Since once they book the deal, they can book the USD profit as soon as they realize revenue. And for most companies, less uncertainty means more investors and easier growth. Especially if they mainly have "domestic only" investors. If someone who has done any of this could comment though, that would be great. I just saw a bit of it when "shadowing"/secondhand.
  • #1,121,538
  • Jul 5, 2017 5:21pm Jul 5, 2017 5:21pm
Quoting Don96
wow could someone actually explain it i mean for barclays and co to sell, someone must have a shit load... surely they can just make whatever money they want... but where does that money come from
So much writing.
Tut tut.

95 to 97% of retail traders lose money.
Bank's profits.

All synthetics bla bla are just hedging. Like insurance. Ergo - banks profits.

That's it.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,121,539
  • Edited 6:43pm Jul 5, 2017 5:37pm | Edited 6:43pm
OK, I have seen too many micro analysis.
We finally have new levels to play with.

I am short, I am short like a dwarf. There is no way I will take any long trades above1.1340.
However; there are levels for me to have the bearish bias alive:

- 1.1394 - The best level to take a short if you are not in already. If it is breached and it holds as a support after,no point in holding shorts until a new high - That is when I will close all shorts.

-1.1307 - The bitch level that can take it to a new high, even above 1.15xxs /Still wont take any longs but will close the shorts the moment I see a reversal pattern which is very likely I must admit.

- 1.1262 - Any hourly /4H close at or below it is your jackpot, it opens the gates of 1.09xxs. There are demand areas below that's for sure but how much demand that is sth none of us can know.

I am not interested in any longs, even for a scalp. I have a small account which I play to satisfy that long scalps desire but no longs on the major account.

Zvoncici, zvoncici, cavro pistolcici
Caje, suje, ajde, hopaaaaa



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  • #1,121,540
  • Jul 5, 2017 6:14pm Jul 5, 2017 6:14pm
With NK, ADP, NFP and EUR minutes coming up, I am hesitant to consider the current price action as valid. I note that oscillators have retraced quite a bit which can give room for more downside movement, however I presume it will be extremely limited until wages set a direction. If I had to guess, I would long somewhere just below 1300 with weekly support at 1280 and 1240 respectively.

In order for a longer term short position we need to see pound fall and stay below 1.2850, which at the moment doesnt look like it has high probability.

My guess is early movement tomorrow is bearish, and day will end bullish/todays high forming a bullish daily formation for a retest at the highs.
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