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  • #1,120,901
  • Jul 1, 2017 12:50am Jul 1, 2017 12:50am
[Derrik_S._Hobbs]_Fibonacci_for_the_Active_Trader

download this's book looking good guys.. i cant's upload hight mb
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  • #1,120,902
  • Jul 1, 2017 12:53am Jul 1, 2017 12:53am
Quoting imwim
{quote} Try this one, modified with ill_be_back settings. If MT4 is already running, restart MT4 to recompile the modified indicator. {file}
I got it right already!
Thank you again !!!
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  • #1,120,903
  • Jul 1, 2017 1:36am Jul 1, 2017 1:36am
What was suppose to be a quiet week in the foreign-exchange market turned into an extremely eventful one that saw many major currencies hit new highs against the U.S. dollar. There were a few pieces of market-moving data (mostly from the Eurozone), but currencies were driven exclusively by central-bank speak. Investors were forced to reassess their positions after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and European Central Bank President Draghi turned hawkish. The U.S. dollar, which experienced broad-based losses, was a casualty of the fresh opportunities presented by new monetary policy trajectories. As incoming data confirmed the optimism of central bankers in Europe and the U.S., data cast doubt on the Fed’s hawkishness leading to a sharp rise in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Fed President Bullard — not a FOMC voting member — vocalized the market’s concerns when he said the Fed is raising interest rates against a backdrop of relatively weak growth and downside inflation surprises. However Bullard is the minority as many other U.S. policymakers (including Vice Chair Fischer and FOMC voter Dudley who spoke this week) support Janet Yellen’s positive view of the economy. There were some bright spots in U.S. data as well including the uptick in consumer confidence, smaller U.S. trade deficit, stronger manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, stronger confidenceand upward revision to Q1 GDP growth.

Unfortunately these reports were not meaningful enough to prevent losses in the greenback, leaving investors divided on whether a year-end rate hike is truly coming. Before buying what the Fed is selling, they want to see a significant pickup in job growth and stronger average hourly earnings. The next nonfarm payrolls report (due on Friday) will be a crucial test for the greenback and a deciding factor in determining whether EUR, GBP, CAD and other major currencies hit new highs. The Fed minutes should be hawkish but NFPs are the main focus. We expect USD/JPY to trade in a 110.50-113 range ahead of the jobs report and to breakout if the data impresses — or disappoints in a meaningful way.

Meanwhile, the euro is on a tear. It is almost hard to believe that the currency is up 1000 pips, or 10 full cents, since the beginning of the year. The European Central Bank started the year with an extremely accommodative monetary policy stance and it walked into the second half with a completely different attitude. ECB President Draghi hasn’t uttered the word "taper" yet but there’s no question that they are laying the groundwork for removing stimulus. The ECB is an extremely calculating central bank that likes to set expectations for major policy changes months in advance so that when the actual change is made, investors have it fully discounted, making the market impact minimal. Which is exactly what it is doing now. At the very start of last week, Draghi kicked the ball in motion by saying they may change polity to a neutral stance. EUR/USD shot up in response, almost too quickly, prompting the ECB to come out and say that the market misjudged Draghi’s speech. However as he did not confirm this misinterpretation at the central-bank panel a few hours later, investors took the ECB’s comments as nothing more than an attempt to slow the euro's rise. They bid EUR/USD back up in response, sending the pair to a 1-year high. As Eurozone data continues to support the ECB’s hawkishness, it won’t be long before 1.15 is in the rear-view mirror.

The most surprising shift came from Bank of England Mark Carney who only weeks ago raised concerns about low wage growth. At the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal this past week, he said “some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary if the trade-off facing the MPC continues to lessen and the policy decision accordingly becomes more conventional.” These words caught the market off guard and took GBP/USDabove 1.30 in a week with no losses. Looking ahead, GBP has 2 things going for it: the first is the BoE’s hawkishness and the second is Prime Minister May’s survival of the Queen’s vote. The minority government narrowly defeated Labour, allowing May to keep her job. Next week’s PMI reports will be extremely important in reinforcing the central bank’s hawkishness and the rise in sterling. If manufacturing- and service-sector activity accelerates, we should see GBP/USD close above this year’s high of 1.3050.

With USD/CAD dropping to 1.30, many traders are wondering how much further the currency will fall. Like the euro, looniehas the support of data and policy guidance. In mid June, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Wilkins set the loonie on an upward course when she said they may need to assess whether less stimulus is needed. This past week, Deputy Governor Patterson explained that the central bank is less dovish because they feel that the economic shock from oil is largely behind them. We haven’t heard much from Poloz who had multiple opportunities to address policy, so investors interpreted his silence as an endorsement of hawkish views. Yet it may be difficult for the positive trend of Canadian data to continue in light of the big improvements seen the previous month. Canada’s trade, IVEY PMI and employment reports are scheduled for release and we are looking for softer numbers all around. We’ve already seen GDP growth slow in April. So while USD/CAD is in a strong downtrend, we could see a relief rally back to 1.32 in the coming week.

The Australian dollar, which climbed to fresh 3-month highs, will be in play this coming week. In addition to the latest PMI reports, retail sales and trade balance, the Reserve Bank of Australia also has a monetary policy announcement. When it last met, the central bank expressed concerns about the appreciating currency and weak growth in total hours worked. But their warnings fell on deaf ears as investors focused on the neutral policy stance. Going into this month’s meeting, we’ve seen further improvements in the labor market, a rally in iron ore prices and stronger Chinese import demand but businesses are nervous, home loans are falling and the trade surplus shrank significantly in April. So the central bank has no reason to change its views and if anything, it could express greater concern about the rising currency. With that in mind, there is significant resistance for AUD/USD between 0.7700 and 0.7750. Unlike AUD and CAD, the New Zealand dollar struggled to extend its gains this past week as a smaller trade surplus offset stronger business confidence. With no major economic reports on next week’s calendar, NZD should take its cue from the market’s appetite for U.S. and Australian dollars.
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  • #1,120,904
  • Jul 1, 2017 4:30am Jul 1, 2017 4:30am
EURUSD H4 - Important Levels

With market opening on Sunday night I expect price to be locked inside a sideways channel which consists of a 40 pip range that is between 1.1400 and 1.1440.. not much to say:

  1. Overall still bullish sentiment on H4 (sideways priceaction inside a steep bullish channel doesn't indicate a trend change for now),
  2. Price bounced on Friday from the lower edge of bullish channel and will probably try to retest centerline of channel: 1.1440/50 area,
  3. A deeper correction would be only possible if the 1.1400/1.1415 block breaks.

Happy Weekends

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,120,905
  • Jul 1, 2017 8:38am Jul 1, 2017 8:38am
EUR/USD W1
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  • #1,120,906
  • Jul 1, 2017 9:07am Jul 1, 2017 9:07am
Quoting Jones_PL
EUR/USD W1 {image}
If your analysis holds true which it has good probability to do despite the overbought condition i suspect the spike back to TL to happen quickly by wednesday then back to friday close by friday the bearish weekly bar will not be a full bodied one if it is i dont expect the bounce but a return to rangebound conditions
  • #1,120,907
  • Jul 1, 2017 9:46am Jul 1, 2017 9:46am
Quoting Takisd
{quote} If your analysis holds true which it has good probability to do despite the overbought condition i suspect the spike back to TL to happen quickly by wednesday then back to friday close by friday the bearish weekly bar will not be a full bodied one if it is i dont expect the bounce but a return to rangebound conditions
I do not know in what day it will happen
I'm only interested in levels
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  • #1,120,908
  • Jul 1, 2017 11:03am Jul 1, 2017 11:03am
Quoting Jones_PL
{quote} I do not know in what day it will happen I'm only interested in levels {image}
Another View ...
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Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #1,120,909
  • Edited 11:35am Jul 1, 2017 11:20am | Edited 11:35am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
EURUSD H4 - Important Levels With market opening on Sunday night I expect price to be locked inside a sideways channel which consists of a 40 pip range that is between 1.1400 and 1.1440.. not much to say: Overall still bullish sentiment on H4 (sideways priceaction inside a steep bullish channel doesn't indicate a trend change for now), Price bounced on Friday from the lower edge of bullish channel and will probably try to retest centerline of channel: 1.1440/50 area, A deeper correction would be only possible if the 1.1400/1.1415 block breaks. Happy...
Dear Ata, if I may ask do u see a bearish sea pony pattern forming on H4 EU. TQ (it is shown from the indicator you provided)
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Self discipline It is a practice
  • #1,120,910
  • Jul 1, 2017 11:37am Jul 1, 2017 11:37am
Investment Risk Management
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File Type: pdf Investment Risk Management.pdf   2.1 MB | 525 downloads
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  • #1,120,911
  • Jul 1, 2017 11:53am Jul 1, 2017 11:53am
Quote
Dear Ata, if I may ask do u see a bearish sea pony pattern forming on H4 EU. TQ (it is shown from the indicator you provided)


my chart
not have this's pattam
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  • #1,120,912
  • Jul 1, 2017 12:26pm Jul 1, 2017 12:26pm
5 Percentage Equity Model
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File Type: xlsx 5 Percentage Equity Model.xlsx   14 KB | 187 downloads
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  • #1,120,913
  • Jul 1, 2017 12:40pm Jul 1, 2017 12:40pm
Inserted Video
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  • #1,120,914
  • Jul 1, 2017 5:05pm Jul 1, 2017 5:05pm
Quoting okshop
{quote} Dear Ata, if I may ask do u see a bearish sea pony pattern forming on H4 EU. TQ (it is shown from the indicator you provided) {image}
Yes, of course I do.. same indicator, same results.. But I shared a Cypher pattern on Daily which the indicator couldn't catch. I rely on that for now: If daily candle closes above 1.1475 it will cancel the cypher, until then we are still inside a potential sell zone..

These new patterns that these russians coders added to the indicator are not so well known.. the sea pony (horse), the swan.. the partizan etc.. I ignore them all.. I stick to the common ones: Cypher, Butterfly, Gartley, Bat, Crab, Shark, 3 Drives and AB=CD.. that's all.. the rest is overrated in my opinion.. so stick to the major patterns and ignore the uncommon ones.. my half cents..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,120,915
  • Jul 1, 2017 5:11pm Jul 1, 2017 5:11pm
1.1150-1.12 IS a REASONABLE TARGET
  • #1,120,916
  • Jul 1, 2017 5:38pm Jul 1, 2017 5:38pm
Quoting arash66110
1.1150-1.12 IS a REASONABLE TARGET
Even better: How about 1.074? To close that nearly 100-pip gap that's just been sitting there for over 2 months now. But seriously, though, that makes about as much sense to me as all these trend lines and patterns that people find/place on their charts. More often than not, they just seem pretty arbitrary to me. Which actually may say more about me than the people posting them.... it could very well be they're useful, but I just don't see it personally. Therefore, I shoot for something a little more concrete and obvious: Da Gap!
  • #1,120,917
  • Jul 1, 2017 6:09pm Jul 1, 2017 6:09pm
The Central Bank Cartels decided to change their mind last week, and we all paid for the consequences through losses
or small gains....I talked about how important it is to factor in Fundamentals in our trading, but I was really surprised
by Euro performance. I wanted the market to go up by the end of the year since Summer Trading is really Slow, but not
last week.

There's still room for the market to Go UP, but Last Week High(1.14450) has to be violated... Meanwhile, I will be watching this
setup closely and expect to see some kind of exhaustion in the market....Non-Farm Payroll Friday might change the
story a little bit and give us at least 2 weeks to take advantage of any drop in the Euro....

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The Proper Stop-Loss based on the Weekly Chart is over 320+pip, so there's no way we can afford to do that... We just have to
go on a lower Timeframe like M30 or M15 to find Short Entries throughout the Week.

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Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #1,120,918
  • Jul 1, 2017 6:42pm Jul 1, 2017 6:42pm
Quoting Ratmach
{quote} Even better: How about 1.074? To close that nearly 100-pip gap that's just been sitting there for over 2 months now. But seriously, though, that makes about as much sense to me as all these trend lines and patterns that people find/place on their charts. More often than not, they just seem pretty arbitrary to me. Which actually may say more about me than the people posting them.... it could very well be they're useful, but I just don't see it personally. Therefore, I shoot for something a little more concrete and obvious: Da Gap!...
If you shoot for something more CONCRETE, well, here's Monthly Chart with a GAP.. which are you putting your money on?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,120,919
  • Jul 1, 2017 8:24pm Jul 1, 2017 8:24pm
On the weekly chart we can focus easily on 1.1490 area because it is a double resistance zone (where we expect yellow and blue trendlines to resist together).

The levels I am mentioning must be considered roughly since weekly chart can print flexible candles. But it still can help us to focus on a specific zone where we can look for sell opportunities with help of smaller timeframes.

The idea here is that market can bounce back from 1.15 area but in the back of our mind we should also be aware that 1.1675 to 1.17 levels are not that far. Again especially a candle close above 1.1490 will open the gates for bulls to push higher.

Now, what catches my eyes this time is that we have a very first monthly candle that closed just below the yellow resistance line, (compared to the 2 previous attempts where candles could only touch the yellow line with their shadows), we can expect that bull power is now much stronger than before. Any drop that would look like an attempt for gap close could maybe delay the break of 1.1490 but (imho) can't prevent it from what I see on weekly.

But to all newbies: don't forget that I am talking about the weekly.. yes we are close for interesting priceaction but trend reversals based on big timeframes take time.. no rush.. just focus on 1.1450/1.15 zone and simply look for bullish weakness on smaller timeframes.. Especially while above 1.14 nothing to be too excited for bears.

*I also drew a green trendline onto the chart to show that 1.30 area will probably too act as a strong resistance level in the near future.. time will show..

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-Weekly-2017-07.png Size: 101 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,120,920
  • Jul 1, 2017 10:48pm Jul 1, 2017 10:48pm
Quoting jusstin911
{quote} If you shoot for something more CONCRETE, well, here's Monthly Chart with a GAP.. which are you putting your money on? {image}
Now that's weird. But I can't find that gap on the charts I'm looking at, so it's even weirder. I notice is does, though, just about coincide with the Swiss Bank going insane on Jan 15th. But anyway, no I wasn't really serious about gaps. I know it's unusual for big ones to go a long time without being filled, but there's no rule that says they HAVE TO be filled.
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