News trading discussion - continuation

dax

Great weekend to everyone.

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Fantastic scalping of DAX!
What is the "meter" like thing on top of your chart, showing 45%?
How does this work in your trading?
Thanks,
RS

My friend this has nothing to do with scalping.

hi vv, how did u know how fast the news effect the price? just like yesterday, uk current account in pair gbp/usd, it takes some hours to make gbp stronger. but the ecb draghi speaks (on 27june cmiiw), in pair eur/usd, it takes some minutes only

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Strong Price movement occurs during the publication of important economic events, when economists make mistakes in their forecasts: a greater range of errors, a stronger market reaction (splash)!

The speech of President ECB President Draghi,
Fed Chair Yellen, financial statements of the central bankers of Australia, New Zealand, also give a surge in volatility in the market.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

THREE MORE BANKS ARE READY TO GO THE LENGTH OF TIGHTENING THE POLICY

This sounds positive and means additional opportunities for the news trading. Mario Draghi acknowledged the growth of the European economy, Mark Carney agreed with the need to tighten the monetary policy of the Bank of England, and Stephen Poloz noted that the low-interest rates of the Bank of Canada have already taken their toll.

EUR

MARIO DRAGHI RECOGNIZES THE GROWTH OF THE ECONOMY BUT STILL TRIES TO PLAY WITH THE MARKETS

Monday was the last pre-start day for the euro, the basic US orders disappointed investors, and the ECB head’s evening speech provoked the sale of the dollar against the euro, intensified during the Mario Draghi’s morning speech on Tuesday.
The main banker of the Eurozone, at the conference in Portugal, confirmed the fact of the restoration of the Union's economy.

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The remarkable fact is that trying to stop the growth of the Euro, ECB’s clerks tried to explain on Thursday that their boss was “misunderstood” but the statistics of the Eurozone’s countries (Spain and Germany), released later, confirmed the words about economic stability.

We are waiting for clarification on the QE program of the European Central Bank, namely, how the bank will get out of it.

USD

REMAINS ON ITS ACCOMMODATIVE LINE OF INTEREST RATE INCREASE

The final US GDP of the first quarter was published above forecasts: 1.4% versus 1.2%, but this figure did not impress the markets as the price index (Core PCE index Price), which is partially used by the FRS for inflation coordination, stopped somewhat: 2% with the previous 2.1% and with the same forecast.
The most interesting thing is that Bullard, who is usually not against the rate increase, noted: perhaps the FRS was somewhat more hawkish than it should against the background of the sudden drop in inflation and weak economic growth.
In addition, the IMF slightly lowered the forecast for US GDP growth, but at the same time, Morgan Stanley increased it for the second quarter of 2017.
The probability of the interest rate increase according to the CME Group remains stable; there is about 50% of the chance for the December meeting.

GBP

APPARENTLY, MARK CARNEY HAS CHANGED HIS ATTITUDE TO THE RATE INCREASE

On Tuesday, there was a Mark Carney’s duty speech (but much more interesting on Wednesday) and the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report was published, which didn’t contain anything negative.
On Wednesday, at the conference in Portugal, the head of the Bank of England announced the imminent abandonment of the stimulus of the economy, which, against the background of the disagreements of the Regulator last week, sounded loudly for the markets. This fact significantly supported the pound.

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It seems that Mark Carney was not against raising the rate, although a few days ago he denied such a possibility, arguing that such a probability is “not relevant at the moment.”

According to the Mark Carney’s statement, changes in monetary policy will occur in the “next few months.”

NZD/AUD

THOSE TWO BANKS THAT WILL BE NEXT

On Tuesday, the rapid growth of the national currency, upon exports data above expectations, was interrupted by a speech by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which caused a fall for the currencies of Oceania.

The Tuesday’s speech of the deputy head of the Bank of Australia caused a sharp drop in quotations of the Australian dollar, the growth of which was recovered only on Thursday upon the released statistics on the new housing sale (better than expectations).

Please note that in Australia there is such an indicator when they count the number of ads with vacancies (jobs), and so, this indicator reached a 6-year maximum. And this is good…

According to ANZ, the New Zealand’s business Index is also at a nine-month extremum.

It seems that the RBA and RBNZ will be the next who will talk thoroughly about raising the interest rate.


СAD

THE CHANCES OF THE RATE INCREASE HAVE INCREASED FROM 20% TO 40%!

A weak trend of the Canadian dollar growth was strengthened by the speech of the country's chief banker Stephen Poloz, who said that low rates played a role in strengthening the national economy. This allowed speculators to increase the Canadian currency in their portfolios, and the probability of increasing the interest rate rose to 40% next month (by the way, the meeting will be held very soon on 12/07).

Watch the Bank of Canada, now it aims for raising the interest rate.

EXPECTED EVENTS OF THE COMING WEEK

Please note that the US Independence Day is coming, which is fraught with delicate trading on July 4 (this is Tuesday) as a result of low market liquidity.

Traditionally, the beginning of a new month promises a huge flow of fundamental data. We start directly from Monday. The attention should be paid to the data of manufacturing PMI from the USA and Great Britain.

On Tuesday, with closed US exchanges, Australia's retail sales data will be published at night, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a meeting on the interest rate, but the markets will primarily expect the minutes as changes in the interest rate are not expected.

Riksbank will also hold its meeting on this day, the markets also do not expect a change in the rate, but the negative rate of the bank has been held for a long time.

The Great Britain will publish the construction PMI for June; it will require additional comments from our side since the indicator can be dangerous this time.

On Wednesday, the Services PMI is published in addition to the publication of the key PMI for the Great Britain. In the evening, the minutes of the FOMC meeting will be published. This is a summary 3-week-old meeting, pay attention but minimal one (this is not an FOMC meeting, nothing should happen).

On Thursday, do not miss the publication of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, recently it works well on signals. Attention should be paid to the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and oil trading.

On Friday, Non-Farm Employment Change! Canadian labor market data is hidden behind the back of the American brother this time (they are published together with it at the same time) and it is not subject to trading. Before this, there will be a small movement at the time of the publication of British industrial production, and inconveniently, in the evening, natural gas reserves data will be published.

July begins, the month, which will also contain additional reports for the second quarter of 2017

Good luck everyone

Hi,

your post seems interesting. i have few questions, if you can please answer it.
1. how you trade news event.
2. will spread increase during news? if so usually how many pips and how to tackle them?
3. if we use straddle strategy will it be a slippage problem? pending orders wont triggered perfectly. right? if so, how do you manage this?
4. once price reached SL or TP will it closed perfectly??
5. how much lot size(maximum) can be traded during news?

My main concern is pending order, SL,TP coz of slippage will it execute perfectly and also whats the normal during news event?

thanks. if you can kindly reply. sorry for my poor english. thanks again

hi vv,
thank u for ur answer dear

btw, i'm newbie in forex (knowing forex since half year ago). i'm giving up in indicator because i don't understand the logic behind that n i'm suck in math. btw, english is not my mother tongue, i'sorry if i use some strange english language. how do i start to learn news? its same like fundamental analysis right? any book recomendation to learn it?

I'll give you one piece of advice.
You need to read the topic a bit and you will definitely find all the answers,
Which you interisuyut.

Hello gals and guys,

Useful links to help you understand/answer your questions about news trading. They are free.

Investing.com calendar: (https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/)

Fast Streaming Economic Calendar: (https://www.cashbackforex.com/en-us/....aspx?r=weekly) Historical deviations.

Fast Economic News Calendar: (http://www.fasteconomicnews.com/fx_calendar.aspx) Sec-by-sec charts of all historical news events.

Economic news are recurring events on a monthly basis (some are quarterly). This means you only have to go back vvFish's past one month posts with charts of his trades and how many pips he has gained (yellow numbers on his charts are the gains in pippets).

His style is manual entry/trailing EA exits. One will need a lot of practice and may take months until you get to his level, if at all.

Straddle pending orders have merits/demerits. You only realize the effect of it by test driving the EA over a few/several months.

AC (auto clicker)'s performance is commensurate with the cost of service including vps rental. There was a free one called fng (free but very good latency) but unfortunately they stopped the service since the turn of the year. I know people who are successful with AC, but they pay hundreds of dollars a month to get the near-zero latency between news announcement and clicking action.

Test any of the above three methods and feel free to post your results with charts. Use the script (in paper clip) to show your gains on charts.

Very few people do this. So you are encouraged to participate actively.

Cheers,
RS

My pre analysis for today's news gives the following numbers:

Straddle EA
Pending Orders distance: +/- 80 points

AC triggers
1) UK Manufacturing PMI consensus
cns=56.4;
deviation triggers:
posdev=+1.5; // buy GBP/USD
negdev=-1.5; // sell GBP/USD

2) US ISM Manufacturing PMI consensus
cns=55.0;
deviation triggers:
posdev=+1.0; // buy USD/JPY
negdev=-1.0; // sell USD/JPY

After the news, check how these setting have resulted in probable trade(s), using the 10 sec charts from the aforementioned sites.

This is just for info only for demo trading.

Thanks, RisingSun

Hi Rising Sun, I first want to say thank you for your additions and ideas on news trading. It's good to see others putting helpful things out into the communitiy instead of haters just critisising others.

One thing that is a little concerning is your idea of demo trading news spikes or straddles. I have used straddles, spikes and auto clickers for the past 4 years with varying results and continue to news trade today but it is only one strategy of the multiple I use and I generally only trade a couple of forex strategies, one indicies strategy and a couple of stock strategies.The biggest variable is your broker. I am yet to find a MT4 broker that wont either increase splippage or spreads during news time. You might even get away with some profit to start with until the broker decides they wont their money back. If you just demo you will think this strategy is great but in reality it will not past the test of time unless you have a broker that works. I no longer use MT4 brokers as MT4 is too easy for brokers to manipulate.

Of course demo trade for nobbies to get use to the EAs and the news events but take your results with a grain of salt as the real world doesn't work the same. Just my two cents worth, just don't want too many traders getting ahead of themselves and quitting their jobs thinking they're going to get rich off of their demo trades. Besides that keep it up to all the people like VV and RisingSun who have been consistant teachers in this community for many years, much respect.

Comparison of entries.
1st - 1 sec before (vvFish method)
2nd - straddle
3rd - AutoClick