Positive news for the USD ...EUR/USD seem to be deaf to the news 
C'moooon, Mr Draghi, Mr Trump, say something stupid!
C'moooon, Mr Draghi, Mr Trump, say something stupid!
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- #1,120,582
- Jun 29, 2017 7:34am Jun 29, 2017 7:34am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: The New Legend™ | 4,846 Posts
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
- #1,120,584
- Jun 29, 2017 7:36am Jun 29, 2017 7:36am
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Impeccable | 2,829 Posts
It's just that market doesn't know how to react now. Well, I think this has a delayed fuse which will explode later today.
Self discipline It is a practice
- #1,120,585
- Jun 29, 2017 7:37am Jun 29, 2017 7:37am
- Joined Dec 2005 | Status: Com Member = Scammer | 5,408 Posts
- #1,120,587
- Jun 29, 2017 7:39am Jun 29, 2017 7:39am
- Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Trader | 10,364 Posts
It's just that market doesn't know how to react now. Well, I think this has a delayed fuse which will explode later today.
you mean this...???
- #1,120,588
- Jun 29, 2017 7:41am Jun 29, 2017 7:41am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,257 Posts
{quote} Good gdp +1 / bad unemployment -1 = 0000000000000000 (usd might crawl up a little)
Because US GDP (the final version) it's always (almost) been printed a little higher than the forecast (so no surprise there)
And the Claims are pretty bad actually...
even though, market's sentiment sends euro slightly down
I'll sell if 1.1393 is seriously broken
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- #1,120,590
- Jun 29, 2017 7:45am Jun 29, 2017 7:45am
- Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,445 Posts
I think people are confused with how the fed is going to "invert the yield curve" to slow the overheating credit/"buy room for the next crisis" to be able to lower rates when the ECONOMY is bad. Although this last part makes me 
I suspect that the US FED is actually going to BRING DOWN the long rates 10-30YEAR, and at the same time bring up the short term. I think people expected that they would just bring the short term rate up a ton to get closer to the long term without pulling down the longer term rate.
People think this:
I suspect it will be this:
And I think (not 100% sure) that the longer rates falling still like this is USD accomodative which means weakened USD when compared to everything else. Just my thoughts. I think that can explain why the US is in the ACTUAL tightening process (not just talk) faster than most, but that the USD is weakening... that and we are the "world GOLD" (USD standard - for now), and since people still always need us for CREDIT GENERATION, we are "forced" to keep the USD loose as long as the system is in place... Just my stuff about the long term though...
WELL: the other thing that explains the divergence in US actually tightening versus the weakening of the USD/price action is that the FX game is also largely about expectations. And the expectations for others are shifting more from "never going to tighten in 1 million years" to "oh, they might actually also do this."
I suspect that the US FED is actually going to BRING DOWN the long rates 10-30YEAR, and at the same time bring up the short term. I think people expected that they would just bring the short term rate up a ton to get closer to the long term without pulling down the longer term rate.
People think this:
I suspect it will be this:
And I think (not 100% sure) that the longer rates falling still like this is USD accomodative which means weakened USD when compared to everything else. Just my thoughts. I think that can explain why the US is in the ACTUAL tightening process (not just talk) faster than most, but that the USD is weakening... that and we are the "world GOLD" (USD standard - for now), and since people still always need us for CREDIT GENERATION, we are "forced" to keep the USD loose as long as the system is in place... Just my stuff about the long term though...
WELL: the other thing that explains the divergence in US actually tightening versus the weakening of the USD/price action is that the FX game is also largely about expectations. And the expectations for others are shifting more from "never going to tighten in 1 million years" to "oh, they might actually also do this."
- #1,120,591
- Jun 29, 2017 7:45am Jun 29, 2017 7:45am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Forex4Ever | 2,190 Posts
5M chart is showing the spike down 1411 atm !
short with 5 pips SL small lot size(2.5), b/c I dont trust this signal that much, temp target 1340 but could be closed before that !
Let see !
Edited: SL at BE
1
) Market freeze at that time, no moving lolEither hit my SL or first target at 1375
lol
- #1,120,592
- Jun 29, 2017 7:46am Jun 29, 2017 7:46am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Fooled by randomness | 8,361 Posts
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
- #1,120,593
- Jun 29, 2017 7:48am Jun 29, 2017 7:48am
- | Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,637 Posts
{quote} OMG, you are right, I take it back, is not so positive for the USD Because US GDP (the final version) it's always been printed a little higher than the forecast And the Claims are pretty bad actually... even though, market's sentiment sends euro slightly down
Final GDP q/q is very good/positive.
The price is at the level agreed by the central banks ECB and FED. The EURUSD drop is in the air...
I am who I am
- #1,120,594
- Jun 29, 2017 7:49am Jun 29, 2017 7:49am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts
Kinda weird, I clicked at 1411 but it gave me 14108(missing 0.2 pips here
I don't like such environment, tried to get few pips on AUDUSD, which I think might go down couple of ten of pips, but I am done for today. I wish you all nice rest of the day and many green pips. Diana out.
- #1,120,595
- Jun 29, 2017 7:49am Jun 29, 2017 7:49am
{quote} OMG, you are right, I take it back, is not so positive for the USD Because US GDP (the final version) it's always (almost) been printed a little higher than the forecast (so no surprise there) And the Claims are pretty bad actually... even though, market's sentiment sends euro slightly down
- #1,120,596
- Jun 29, 2017 7:50am Jun 29, 2017 7:50am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,257 Posts
Member
- #1,120,597
- Jun 29, 2017 7:51am Jun 29, 2017 7:51am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Forex4Ever | 2,190 Posts
{quote} Spread during data release
First time trade with 2.5 lots, very fun right now.
Most of the time I scalp 10 lots at least
How are you doing mate?
- #1,120,599
- Jun 29, 2017 8:01am Jun 29, 2017 8:01am
[quote=skillz16;10034535]I think people are confused with how the fed is going to "invert the yield curve" to slow the overheating credit/"buy room for the next crisis" to be able to lower rates when the ECONOMY is bad. Although this last part makes me I suspect that the US FED is actually going to BRING DOWN the long rates 10-30YEAR, and at the same time bring up the short term.
Fed has absolutely no rein over 10 yr treasury rates. They depend on market's (bond buyers') GDP growth and inflation expectations. That's exactly why 10 yr yields stay so low these days even though Fed keeps on saying it's going to keep on tightening. Market players (again read bond buyers) don't believe it as they don't believe in Trump's growth reforms and they see inflation staying subdued as well.
What you're right about however is that low 10 yr yields weight heavily upon dolar these days. I cannot see dolar getting any boost unless those yields move up. And they move up when both growth and inflation pick up. So yes, that way or another data is still important for what happens in fx.
I suspect that the US FED is actually going to BRING DOWN the long rates 10-30YEAR, and at the same time bring up the short term.Fed has absolutely no rein over 10 yr treasury rates. They depend on market's (bond buyers') GDP growth and inflation expectations. That's exactly why 10 yr yields stay so low these days even though Fed keeps on saying it's going to keep on tightening. Market players (again read bond buyers) don't believe it as they don't believe in Trump's growth reforms and they see inflation staying subdued as well.
What you're right about however is that low 10 yr yields weight heavily upon dolar these days. I cannot see dolar getting any boost unless those yields move up. And they move up when both growth and inflation pick up. So yes, that way or another data is still important for what happens in fx.
- #1,120,600
- Jun 29, 2017 8:03am Jun 29, 2017 8:03am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts
{quote} oh ok
But lucky to catch long EURNZD and GBPNZD during Draghi statement