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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #581
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:31am Apr 26, 2020 6:31am
Does someone have the indicators ( or similar) of the first page in mtq5 format?
  • #582
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:33am Apr 26, 2020 6:33am
Quoting Jordi
{quote} Thank you very much for your quick answer. It's a great example . Another question regarding the stop loss. If the risk-reward ratio is less than 1, do you take the trade? what ratio do you usually use to enter a trade?
Remember you will not know your 'true' risk in advance, so you can afford to take trades with a negative R:R. Also bear in mind that, if taking partial profits, the remaining segment can turn into a runner, vastly exceeding your original take profit point. With that in mind, I am comfortable with 0.5+ (because that figure is based on an emergency stop rather than a real exit point).
  • #583
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:41am Apr 26, 2020 6:41am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Remember you will not know your 'true' risk in advance, so you can afford to take trades with a negative R:R. Also bear in mind that, if taking partial profits, the remaining segment can turn into a runner, vastly exceeding your original take profit point. With that in mind, I am comfortable with 0.5+ (because that figure is based on an emergency stop rather than a real exit point).
A crucial piece of info is missing here as a system which is market structure/price behaviour.
Good luck to you all.
on a postive roll...
  • #584
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:44am Apr 26, 2020 6:44am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Remember you will not know your 'true' risk in advance, so you can afford to take trades with a negative R:R. Also bear in mind that, if taking partial profits, the remaining segment can turn into a runner, vastly exceeding your original take profit point. With that in mind, I am comfortable with 0.5+ (because that figure is based on an emergency stop rather than a real exit point).

laura thank you for the wonderful system i still struggle to comprehend how exactly would a channel break and a channel cross would look like? could u please share a few pictures?
  • #585
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:54am Apr 26, 2020 6:54am
Quoting anjane
{quote} laura thank you for the wonderful system i still struggle to comprehend how exactly would a channel break and a channel cross would look like? could u please share a few pictures?
Channel break:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 40 KB


Channel failure:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cf.png Size: 41 KB


Hope this helps.
  • #586
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:57am Apr 26, 2020 6:57am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Channel break: {image} Channel failure: {image} Hope this helps.
thank you so much
  • #587
  • Apr 26, 2020 7:47am Apr 26, 2020 7:47am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Hi Erebus, Do you mind to share the template and its components of that chart? Would be much appreciated.
Here is the Template and list of indicators

Your mission, Jazz, should you choose to accept it, find as many of them as you can.

As always, should you or any of your Roadmap Force be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions.

This post will self-destruct in 24 hours. Good luck, Jazz.



Attached Image


Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 0_Jazz1964_RoadMap_.tpl   37 KB | 732 downloads
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #588
  • Apr 26, 2020 8:04am Apr 26, 2020 8:04am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Channel break: {image} Channel failure: {image} Hope this helps.
for clarification: do you know wait for the retrace/break of upper:lower bounds after a channel break? In my first read through, I assumed this entry was upon the first pull back into band AFTER SMA cross... but in this example it looks like just after the bands cross you’d enter straight away?
  • #589
  • Apr 26, 2020 8:13am Apr 26, 2020 8:13am
Quoting tradeChaser
{quote} for clarification: do you know wait for the retrace/break of upper:lower bounds after a channel break? In my first read through, I assumed this entry was upon the first pull back into band AFTER SMA cross... but in this example it looks like just after the bands cross you’d enter straight away?
Those examples were just to point out what a channel break and channel failure look like.

Entries can take place inside the channel or on the 'wrong' side of the channel.

Hope that helps.
  • #590
  • Apr 26, 2020 8:26am Apr 26, 2020 8:26am
Hi
Nice thread and just going through this now.

Question: what do you mean by high and low of EMA 8? How is the channel created. Can we use Bollinger band of setting 8 instead. I am just trying to understand about that channel.

Thanks for your time and efforts. The system does look promising.
  • #591
  • Apr 26, 2020 8:29am Apr 26, 2020 8:29am
Quoting Hetal.Mehta
Hi Nice thread and just going through this now. Question: what do you mean by high and low of EMA 8? How is the channel created. Can we use Bollinger band of setting 8 instead. I am just trying to understand about that channel. Thanks for your time and efforts. The system does look promising.
When applying your EMA8 indicator to the chart, you want to apply two of them. One is set to the high, the other is set to the low (instead of the close). No need to use BBs.
  • #592
  • Edited 9:02am Apr 26, 2020 8:33am | Edited 9:02am
Someone asked me to work through an example with them of position size relative to a 10k account. I'm posting the summary they produced after our discussion in the hope that it might be helpful for others.

______

Trade Management (Using Emergency Stop)

Step 1: Figure out your the percentage you are willing to ultimately risk per trade. (We will use 1% in this example)
Step 2: Figure out where your emergency stop is going to be in any one trade (We assume EURUSD to be 50 pips and GBPUSD to be 100 pips in this example)*Take note that your emergency stop is going to be mostly out of reach, such as on the other end of the of the channel where you can allow your trade to breathe until proven wrong*
Step 3: Calculate your position size.In this example, risking 1% of a $10,000 account would be $100 risk.

  1. EURUSD (standard lot = $10/pip) would give you a 0.2 lot position trade on a 50 pips emergency stop

  1. GBPUSD (standard lot = $10/pip) would give you a 0.1 lot position trade on a 100 pips emergency stop

Do note that even if you do win a trade, you probably would not get 1% profit while risking 1% of your account.But the bottom line is that by doing so and not placing tight stops in your trades, you disallow the broker from taking you out of your trades due to tight stops, giving you the freedom and sole responsibility to manually exit trades and be proven wrong by your strategy instead of your broker.So start to think of trading in Profit Factor,Gross Profits / Gross Losses.

______

Remember, your true risk is different to your theoretical risk. Getting into the habit of using Profit Factor to evaluate your results will be worthwhile.

  • #593
  • Edited 9:31am Apr 26, 2020 9:14am | Edited 9:31am
Hi Laura,

This is my first post on this thread. The system looks interesting and I read through all the posts - there are some which are not clear, I'll ask those questions in the subsequent posts. Some were asking if this can be traded on Daily or Weekly - After eye balling the chart on both TF with the template, it certainly looks trade-able on those time frames, there may be very few entries on the Weekly / Daily compared to H4 or H1. Also as you stated - the potential profit and losses can be large. I'm no expert in trading, the attached analysis is based on what I understood - so take it with a lot of salt.

I'm assuming any one looking to trade Daily / Weekly will want to hold the position for a longer period and stack the positions, more and more over the time. Looking at the chart at the Daily - there are multiple opportunities over the last 3 years ( I know it is old data - but gives an idea) - depending upon where you enter there is going to be some cases where the price might not move in your favor and those will be either big loses or result in hefty draw down based on your position size / # of trades.

And with Daily TF - I think the only way to trade is if you ignore other parts of the system like MTF, RSI etc and purely depend on the channel and PA inside the channel. By the time the MTF, RSI aligns on Weekly, Monthly TF the channel would be far away from the SMA. Attached is the EU chart for reference, if any one want to look into - there MAY BE a recent potential entry on EU Daily.

Thoughts and Criticisms are both welcome
EDIT - Daily looks more predictable to trade when there is no crisis like what it is now, when there is crisis - it can become unpredictable with wild swings on either side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 236 KB
  • #594
  • Apr 26, 2020 9:19am Apr 26, 2020 9:19am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} When applying your EMA8 indicator to the chart, you want to apply two of them. One is set to the high, the other is set to the low (instead of the close). No need to use BBs.
Thanks a lot, this helps so much.
I trade mostly at support and resistance with price action. I do not use any indicators. I have been doing okay so far. I will try the system and see how it works. Thanks again.
  • #595
  • Apr 26, 2020 9:42am Apr 26, 2020 9:42am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Here is the Template and list of indicators Your mission, Jazz, should you choose to accept it, find as many of them as you can. As always, should you or any of your Roadmap Force be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. This post will self-destruct in 24 hours. Good luck, Jazz. {image} {file}
Ah thank you Erebus, that was quick.
Let me check and find the indicators, hope they are somewhere online.
Fun text Sir
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #596
  • Apr 26, 2020 9:51am Apr 26, 2020 9:51am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} {image} Here's an example of a trade where you'd be proved wrong. If you enter as the channel crosses the SMA, the trade becomes invalidated once the channel crosses back to the other side of the SMA. Hope this helps. I will aim to post some live examples next week if I get the chance.
Hi Laura,
Thanks for the super quick reply.
For some reason I had the idea that you have 3 ways to get out wirh a loss. There is the safety exit, fixed at the broker. Then there is the 'proved me wrong' exit with the EMA channel flipping to the wrong side of the SMA.
But then I had the impression you also exit in loss, somewhere where you feel it is going against you.
Am I wrong that you have such a third kind of losing exit which you trigger when you feel it is appropriateand to cut the loss before 'proved wong'?
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #597
  • Apr 26, 2020 9:52am Apr 26, 2020 9:52am
Quoting karun
Hi Laura, This is my first post on this thread. The system looks interesting and I read through all the posts - there are some which are not clear, I'll ask those questions in the subsequent posts. Some were asking if this can be traded on Daily or Weekly - After eye balling the chart on both TF with the template, it certainly looks trade-able on those time frames, there may be very few entries on the Weekly / Daily compared to H4 or H1. Also as you stated - the potential profit and losses can be large. I'm no expert in trading, the attached analysis...
Hi - thanks for your analysis

You are right, trading on the daily timeframe requires a strong stomach for losses. Although, it's mostly psychological as you can adjust your position size accordingly.

I was in a GBPUSD trade that netted me over 600 pips but the intraday swings meant that I would watch 280 pips be wiped off my profit on a retracement. It's definitely worth considering whether a trader could psychologically handle those types of swings.
  • #598
  • Apr 26, 2020 10:05am Apr 26, 2020 10:05am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Hi Laura, Thanks for the super quick reply. For some reason I had the idea that you have 3 ways to get out wirh a loss. There is the safety exit, fixed at the broker. Then there is the 'proved me wrong' exit with the EMA channel flipping to the wrong side of the SMA. But then I had the impression you also exit in loss, somewhere where you feel it is going against you. Am I wrong that you have such a third kind of losing exit which you trigger when you feel it is appropriateand to cut the loss before 'proved wong'?
You are sort of correct

In practice, I have one type of loss exit. Where the market proves me wrong.

In theory, I also have my emergency stop exit (in case I have a heart attack during trading and am rushed to hospital, or similar) and I also have the freedom to exit based on a feeling that the trade is going to go bad (but this is rarely used).

Hope this helps.
  • #599
  • Apr 26, 2020 10:20am Apr 26, 2020 10:20am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} You are sort of correct In practice, I have one type of loss exit. Where the market proves me wrong. In theory, I also have my emergency stop exit (in case I have a heart attack during trading and am rushed to hospital, or similar) and I also have the freedom to exit based on a feeling that the trade is going to go bad (but this is rarely used). Hope this helps.
Yes thanks. So, although rarely, a third loss concept without rules will be executed when you feel it is time to do so.
And that's okay.
Good to know it is rarely.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #600
  • Apr 26, 2020 10:45am Apr 26, 2020 10:45am
Laura
First, I very much appreciate what you're sharing with us.
We are very lucky that you let us into your trading method.

I have a question regarding the SMA200 Dashboard.
You mentioned you watch M1-M30 for short term trading.
But there is a big difference between trading M1 and M15.
Can you be a bit more specific what TF you watch when trading a specified TF.
Like for example: "when trading M15 I watch the SMA200 Dashboard M5, M30 and H1 to confirm direction"
"when trading H1 I look for H4, D and W to confirm direction"
Or maybe you don't have such strict rules? It would help me if you clarify.

I'm thanking you in advance!
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