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  • Post #5,081
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  • May 18, 2022 10:42am May 18, 2022 10:42am
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
This is another current live trade I am in.
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  • Post #5,082
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  • May 19, 2022 5:34am May 19, 2022 5:34am
  •  Karmaw
  • | Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Member | 20 Posts
Welcome snakecharmer,

I personally dont open trades with the trend when the adr has been blocked because the price is more likely to turn than the price to continue.
 
1
  • Post #5,083
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  • May 19, 2022 5:55am May 19, 2022 5:55am
  •  LauraT
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,285 Posts
Quoting snakecharmer
Disliked
After a couple of weeks and 256 pages here is my first post. I would like to say thank you to Laura for using simplicity and common sense to explain her theories and strategy in a way that could make Richard Feynman pleasantly surprised. And also to every single person that contributed substantially to this thread trying to help people like me, thank you. I took the trade when I saw a good direction of the price and a retracement to the ADR that could possibly continue. At the time of the entry, 1M and 5M were green and the RSI was around 60 ...ish,...
Ignored
Hi - welcome. And congratulations on the mammoth task of getting through the whole thread!

In terms of your trade, there isn't a lot wrong with it. The structure was good when you entered and everything else suggested a continuation to the upside.

After you entered though, the market rose and fell then created a lower high followed by a lower low and another lower high. That is micro-structure becoming bearish. If I was in the trade it would most likely have resulted in me scratching it for slightly worse than breakeven.

Having said that, I also recognise that applying analysis of micro-structure can result in being shaken out of 'good' positions too often. So it's really a case of having to choose your poison. Either you take those early warning signals or you ignore them and stay focused on the bigger picture.

Best of luck with Roadmap and look forward to seeing more of your trades.
 
2
  • Post #5,084
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  • May 19, 2022 6:34am May 19, 2022 6:34am
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
Quoting LauraT
Disliked
{quote} Hi - welcome. And congratulations on the mammoth task of getting through the whole thread! In terms of your trade, there isn't a lot wrong with it. The structure was good when you entered and everything else suggested a continuation to the upside. After you entered though, the market rose and fell then created a lower high followed by a lower low and another lower high. That is micro-structure becoming bearish. If I was in the trade it would most likely have resulted in me scratching it for slightly worse than breakeven. Having said that,...
Ignored
Thank you very much for your reply Laura, very much appreciate it.

Discretion is a part of trading that newbies like me completely overlook, but I think that can only come with time and experience for being a trader. I am happy that I followed the rules in the trade discussed but I also think now looking back and after your advice that it would have been better to cut my losses short and look for a better trade.

Here is the outcome of yesterday's Eur/Jpy trade I closed half of position on that big spike down and as you can see and I closed the rest almost at the low of the day. I am very happy with that trade even though I had a lot of emotions around the TP area.
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And this is Eur/Chf that I just closed a few moments ago. I saw a very strong spike below the two Daily Open and Daily Low levels, Laura's roadmap showing a strong red allover downtrend also the SMA being fairly close and price being below it for a long time. SL was just above the first ADR. Moved SL just above the HH of the candle that closed on the other side of the trendline.
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  • Post #5,085
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  • May 19, 2022 8:16am May 19, 2022 8:16am
  •  LauraT
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,285 Posts
Quoting snakecharmer
Disliked
{quote} Thank you very much for your reply Laura, very much appreciate it. Discretion is a part of trading that newbies like me completely overlook, but I think that can only come with time and experience for being a trader. I am happy that I followed the rules in the trade discussed but I also think now looking back and after your advice that it would have been better to cut my losses short and look for a better trade. Here is the outcome of yesterday's Eur/Jpy trade I closed half of position on that big spike down and as you can see and I closed...
Ignored
Nice trades - well done.

Taking some profit on spikes in your favour is a very good habit to get into.
 
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  • Post #5,086
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  • Edited at 9:36am May 19, 2022 8:48am | Edited at 9:36am
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
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Update on the trade.
Closed it with a small loss.
This time I used trendlines to help my exit instead of waiting for the break above the channel, the 1M TF and indexes is maybe something I should stay away from now.
I zoomed in more on this chart so you guys can see the picture more clearly and what I did.
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  • Post #5,087
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  • Edited at 4:03am May 20, 2022 3:12am | Edited at 4:03am
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
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Closed for a loss.
When the trendline was broken I was still considering to stay in the trade. But once the ADR line appeared I immediately closed the trade. One mistake I think it was not closing half of the position on that spike.
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  • Post #5,088
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  • Edited at 7:06am May 20, 2022 5:09am | Edited at 7:06am
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
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And that's the second loss today, closed the trade on the break of the trendline.
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  • Post #5,089
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  • May 23, 2022 8:41am May 23, 2022 8:41am
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
My first trade of the day, another loss.
RSI 38 and the 5,15,30 TF all red at entry time. SL just above the DAILY high.
Looking at the trade I think it was a bad entry because the trendline wasn't broken.
Also I didn't consider the daily low line anymore because it was already broken twice before the entry. I don't know it this is a good approach I am looking forward to your advice.
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I apologize in advance if I am spamming the thread I am just looking for help, so please let me know if I am posting too many charts. Thank you.
 
 
  • Post #5,090
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  • May 23, 2022 9:30am May 23, 2022 9:30am
  •  LauraT
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,285 Posts
Quoting snakecharmer
Disliked
My first trade of the day, another loss. RSI 38 and the 5,15,30 TF all red at entry time. SL just above the DAILY high. Looking at the trade I think it was a bad entry because the trendline wasn't broken. Also I didn't consider the daily low line anymore because it was already broken twice before the entry. I don't know it this is a good approach I am looking forward to your advice. {image} I apologize in advance if I am spamming the thread I am just looking for help, so please let me know if I am posting too many charts. Thank you.
Ignored
Hi,

A couple of subtle elements come to mind with this trade.

The first is that the price action was such that it was likely to break the 200 to the upside again. If we look at the deep drop overnight, it was followed by a retracement of almost 100%. The channel went from above the SMA to below to above again. Generally speaking, this means volatility will continue to be wide. If you think about the overall structure, it was quite likely that the market would want to make a lower high following your entry. The increased range of price made the likelihood of that lower high breaking the SMA (both in terms of price and the channel).

If you look at the chart I've attached below, you will see that the whole structure was part of a wider contraction phase. You probably will be better avoiding such scenarios.

The second element is the overall slope/direction of the SMA. Although it's broadly headed down, it's quite flat. This tends to mean price action will spend a lot of time on both sides of the SMA. Not ideal.

Best approach is to look for more 'obvious' trades, where there is a clear directional bias established or establishing.

Hope this helps and please feel free to post as many charts as you like. I can't promise I'll always be able to reply quickly but I will do my best to check in regularly.

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  • Post #5,091
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:58pm May 23, 2022 2:44pm | Edited at 3:58pm
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
Quoting LauraT
Disliked
{quote} Hi, A couple of subtle elements come to mind with this trade. The first is that the price action was such that it was likely to break the 200 to the upside again. If we look at the deep drop overnight, it was followed by a retracement of almost 100%. The channel went from above the SMA to below to above again. Generally speaking, this means volatility will continue to be wide. If you think about the overall structure, it was quite likely that the market would want to make a lower high following your entry. The increased range of price made...
Ignored
Thanks for your time Laura, means a lot to me, I will try to post just a couple of trades per day that I take for your consideration or for the thread participants to review and wait for a reply before posting anymore.

I will definitely take on board and implement to the best of my ability the points you made regarding the structure contraction and the SMA being overall flat.

Here is another couple of trades that I took today. One loss, one win.

RSI 59 and 15, 30 dashboard green at the time of entry. SL just below the Daily HIGH.
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RSI 65 and dashboard all green at the time of entry. SL just below the Daily LOW.
In this trade I didn't consider the daily high an obstacle because it was already broken in the past. The important r/s for me was the daily OPEN> I was hoping to get a tap on the line to cut half of my position but it didn't happen so I decided to TP when Price hit the lower channel. Once it also closed below the daily Open I closed the entire position.
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Thank you for you time.
 
 
  • Post #5,092
  • Quote
  • May 25, 2022 3:02pm May 25, 2022 3:02pm
  •  LauraT
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,285 Posts
Quoting snakecharmer
Disliked
{quote} Thanks for your time Laura, means a lot to me, I will try to post just a couple of trades per day that I take for your consideration or for the thread participants to review and wait for a reply before posting anymore. I will definitely take on board and implement to the best of my ability the points you made regarding the structure contraction and the SMA being overall flat. Here is another couple of trades that I took today. One loss, one win. RSI 59 and 15, 30 dashboard green at the time of entry. SL just below the Daily HIGH. {image}...
Ignored
Apologies for the delayed response.

In the first chart you were fighting against bearish momentum. This is quite a common problem for people starting out with Roadmap. There's a section in my Journal that may help.

Notice the difference in the second trade - bearish momentum had finished and the bulls were taking control.
 
1
  • Post #5,093
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:34pm May 25, 2022 4:24pm | Edited at 4:34pm
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
No problem, I am sure you are very busy, so I really appreciate that you are taking the time to reply to me.

I have read your journal many times ( thank you for making all that information available to us) but I will go over it again in more detail regarding the trendlines and momentum.

Another couple of trades that I took today. Again one loss one win.

RSI 33, dashboard all red at the time of entry, SL at 159.80 level.
Once I saw the counter trend line being broken then price moving below the SMA and the two resistances, I decided to let the price come back to the upper channel and wait to clear the resistance area and after that see what happens. It eventually closed below the EMA channel and the two possible resistances (ADR, Day OPEN) that convinced me that momentum is on my side and that's when I took the trade.
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RSI 55, dashboard 1,5,15,30 green at the time of entry, SL below the Daily LOW.
The first take profit (half off the position) that you can see was because at that time the ADR line was there at that point in time, after that I took another half off when it touched the Daily HIGH and the closed the remaining when the channel completely crossed the SMA.
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  • Post #5,094
  • Quote
  • May 26, 2022 2:23am May 26, 2022 2:23am
  •  LauraT
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,285 Posts
Quoting snakecharmer
Disliked
No problem, I am sure you are very busy, so I really appreciate that you are taking the time to reply to me. I have read your journal many times ( thank you for making all that information available to us) but I will go over it again in more detail regarding the trendlines and momentum. Another couple of trades that I took today. Again one loss one win. RSI 33, dashboard all red at the time of entry, SL at 159.80 level. Once I saw the counter trend line being broken then price moving below the SMA and the two resistances, I decided to let the price...
Ignored
Both trades look fine. The first one was just one of those trades where nothing is wrong but it doesn't work out.

However, I've noticed at least a couple of trades from you where it has gone in your direction and then reversed on you. It perhaps might be prudent to think about booking some profit earlier. On your GBPJPY trade for example, taking something at 30-40 pips profit wouldn't be insignificant.
 
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  • Post #5,095
  • Quote
  • May 27, 2022 12:30am May 27, 2022 12:30am
  •  albe84
  • | Joined Oct 2017 | Status: Member | 9 Posts
Hi LauraT
Just discovered this interesting thread and thank you for sharing your knowledge
Are this trades correct? And, if not, why?
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  • Post #5,096
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:43am May 27, 2022 11:15am | Edited at 11:43am
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
Quoting LauraT
Disliked
{quote} Both trades look fine. The first one was just one of those trades where nothing is wrong but it doesn't work out. However, I've noticed at least a couple of trades from you where it has gone in your direction and then reversed on you. It perhaps might be prudent to think about booking some profit earlier. On your GBPJPY trade for example, taking something at 30-40 pips profit wouldn't be insignificant.
Ignored
Thank you for your reply.

Yes, I started taking profits more often based on spikes, trendline/structure breaks, I am using them more in addition to the usual s/r like daily levels or adr range.

I have a couple of trades from today for your consideration. One loss, one break even.

RSI 60 and dashboard all green at entry moment.
I waited for the price to break the trendline and close above the Daily OPEN before I took the trade. I have to mention here that the ADR level wasn't there at the moment of entry, it appeared a few minutes later, I am not sure why the reason is behind that. My SL was around 8490 level.
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RSI and dashboard all in good parameters at the moment of entry. This is a more advanced type of trade based on Laura's roadmap system that I have been trying to use lately or similar setups when price is very close to the SMA and look for a break of structure in confluence with adr/daily levels. I took the trade when I saw the move above the Daily HIGH but also a break and close above the trendline ( a few candles late on the entry). Because It's not a one of the fundamental type of entries like the Channel Break and Channel Failure trades, I use trendlines or adr/daily levels to manage, take profit and exit trades, please advise if you consider this correct. Here I closed the position completely on the break of the first trendline. SL was at the ADR 1844 level.
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Thank you.
 
 
  • Post #5,097
  • Quote
  • May 27, 2022 4:38pm May 27, 2022 4:38pm
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
These are all my trades for the past week using Laura's Roadmap to the best of my abilities and understanding.

All trades are taken on the 5M chart. All trades have a maximum 0.5% position per trade out of the total account and never more then 2 trades on simultaneously for a maximum of 1% of account. I avoid trading any correlated assets as much as I can. As you can see here is a small sample and the win rate is roughly a over 60% to 65% taking into consideration some very close break even.

Fortunately, my first weeks results are on a plus but the results are nothing to write home about roughly we made 0.3% profit in total. Looking at the some of the trades , I am very disappointed with myself because sometimes my stops are too far away and that results in my wins being very small because it's very difficult to understand sometimes where to put the stop and extremely difficult to decide when to take a little profit when to decide to close the entire position and so on.

I do want to mention even though my results are very poor and almost borderline break even, to date these are the most consistent green results that I have had in my learning journey using Laura's teachings. So I would like say thank you again.


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  • Post #5,098
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2022 10:12am May 28, 2022 10:12am
  •  LauraT
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,285 Posts
Quoting snakecharmer
Disliked
{quote} Thank you for your reply. Yes, I started taking profits more often based on spikes, trendline/structure breaks, I am using them more in addition to the usual s/r like daily levels or adr range. I have a couple of trades from today for your consideration. One loss, one break even. RSI 60 and dashboard all green at entry moment. I waited for the price to break the trendline and close above the Daily OPEN before I took the trade. I have to mention here that the ADR level wasn't there at the moment of entry, it appeared a few minutes later,...
Ignored
EURGBP - look at the SMA. The bears still have a grasp on this market. I really wouldn't be looking for longs.

XAUUSD - I'm a bit confused about your description of this one, as you mention price being very close to the SMA. Whereas price is actually too far away from SMA to make the trade attractive. The SMA will act like a rubber band, pulling price back to it when it strays too far. I think this one had strayed too far by the time of your entry.
 
1
  • Post #5,099
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2022 10:22am May 28, 2022 10:22am
  •  LauraT
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Daylight Roadmapper | 1,285 Posts
Quoting snakecharmer
Disliked
These are all my trades for the past week using Laura's Roadmap to the best of my abilities and understanding. All trades are taken on the 5M chart. All trades have a maximum 0.5% position per trade out of the total account and never more then 2 trades on simultaneously for a maximum of 1% of account. I avoid trading any correlated assets as much as I can. As you can see here is a small sample and the win rate is roughly a over 60% to 65% taking into consideration some very close break even. Fortunately, my first weeks results are on a plus but...
Ignored
Thanks for updating your progress. Actually, I wouldn't say the results are very poor at all, considering where you are at on your journey. It's to be expected that decision making, position management etc will improve with experience.

With a win rate of circa 60%, I can understand your frustration in terms of only being slightly above breakeven though. I will have a think about how I can help you get your average winning trades closer to the value of your average losing trades. A lot of that is simply a case of gaining experience, but there might be a simple guideline I can provide to assist.
 
1
  • Post #5,100
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:41pm May 28, 2022 11:28am | Edited at 1:41pm
  •  snakecharmer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 105 Posts
Quoting snakecharmer
Disliked
{quote}This is a more advanced type of trade based on Laura's roadmap system that I have been trying to use lately or similar setups when price is very close to the SMA and look for a break of structure in confluence with adr/daily levels. I took the trade when I saw the move above the Daily HIGH but also a break and close above the trendline ( a few candles late on the entry). Because It's not a one of the fundamental type of entries like the Channel Break and Channel Failure trades, I use trendlines or adr/daily levels to manage, take profit and...
Ignored
Yes there is a mistake here, I am not sure what I was thinking about, I apologise.

What I meant here was that I use the Daily levels or perhaps the ADR levels that could act like a support after the break and take a trade from there if everything else looks good.

A better explanation is that I was trying to do what you mentioned in post 119, I see quite often a break, some sort of a test of the Daily levels, break, retest...
 
 
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