CHF Trading

I am starting this thread for traders interested in the Swiss Franc (CHF). I am a swing trader and can see great potentials in the CHF across other currencies. It seems to be the lesser of the evils given current market conditions.

Reasons in support of the CHF:

1 - Safe Haven
2 - Economy not doing too bad (compared to EU, UK and USA)
3 - Risk Aversion and Carry Trade (stock markets dont look too good)

Attached weekly/daily charts of USD/CHF and GBP/CHF.

USD/CHF - Clearly long term (weekly) trends are down and even on the dailies the price action seems to have created a channel between 38.2 and 61.8% fib levels. In the last week - even some perceived good news (or not so bad financial results) from the US has not been able to decicively break any major resistance at 252 or 300 - So i am thinking Short.

GBP/CHF - Pretty much the same as above - a lot more convincing as UK economy is going downhill faster than thought, albeit this pair has gone down too fast - but if you look at the monthly charts, it has room to go much further. The dailies suggest a sort of traingle forming and i am thinking it could bounce off resistance at 50% fib at 2.0583 or earlier (trend line) - Thinking short again.

Would really appreciate input from fellow traders.

good luck mate

seems to be playing out just as i had thought .. suprised i havent had more input from active traders.

Are you using these spikes to get short?
I think even if you use these spikes to get short at 1:1 leverage you'll see 8-10% drawdown on USDCHF.
Swap on GBPCHF depending on your broker costs 2.16 pips/day. 2 months hold time is -129.6 pips. Understandably you can recoup this loss in a day.

My personal opinion is there is no reason to trade currencies with a 2month horizon. I watch indexes of individual currencies. When an index is overbought versus an index that is oversold I look for technical reasons to enter against the pair's trend and hold until I feel the new trend is over. I move stops to breakeven rather quickly as well. Attached is a chart showing CFP indicator which calculates index disparity of the pair being shown. Essentially you are seeing index usd minus index chf in the CFP here.

When CFP shows oversold I draw a trendline on price and trade when a close ocurrs on the top side of my trendline. As you can see I'm short USDCHF now. I do however see a 4hr long trend in progress and I will close this short soon and look for longs before CFP goes into oversold territory.

hi gmohata
im agree with veiwpoint about USDCHF and GBPCHF

Where are those fake 'real' traders who trade without stoplosses.I dare you to trade without stoploss again.With EuroChf falling 3000+ pips r.i.p to your forex accounts.i wish swissy rally got you naked with no SL . lol .it would be a lesson well learnt