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AUD/USD

  • #96,381
  • Apr 14, 2016 2:12am Apr 14, 2016 2:12am
Quoting dab
{quote} rsi changing that quickly suggests you are on too low a timeframe.
I am using D1 timeframe...
  • #96,382
  • Apr 14, 2016 2:41am Apr 14, 2016 2:41am
Quoting Benard10
{quote} I am using D1 timeframe...
there is no way daily timeframe would have changed from overbought to oversold that quickly. If yours has I suggest you check the settings. As a guide to go from overbought (70+) on daily to oversold (30 or less) requires at least 400 pip move or significant time.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,383
  • Apr 14, 2016 2:51am Apr 14, 2016 2:51am
Quoting dab
{quote} there is no way daily timeframe would have changed from overbought to oversold that quickly. If yours has I suggest you check the settings. As a guide to go from overbought (70+) on daily to oversold (30 or less) requires at least 400 pip move or significant time.
My settings are Overbought 60 and Oversold 60. Here's a screenshot...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Chart.PNG Size: 35 KB
  • #96,384
  • Apr 14, 2016 3:05am Apr 14, 2016 3:05am
Quoting Benard10
{quote} My settings are Overbought 60 and Oversold 60. Here's a screenshot... {image}
60 & 60, no wonder! Seriously I'm not sure what I'm looking at as can't see any rsi on that screenshot.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,385
  • Apr 14, 2016 3:08am Apr 14, 2016 3:08am
Quoting dab
{quote} 60 & 60, no wonder! Seriously I'm not sure what I'm looking at as can't see any rsi on that screenshot.
So what are your recommended settings for Overbought and Oversold?
  • #96,386
  • Apr 14, 2016 3:22am Apr 14, 2016 3:22am
Quoting Benard10
{quote} So what are your recommended settings for Overbought and Oversold?
Hi Benard.

With all due respect, if you haven't checked this site out, you should. It is a very good basic resource and a productive exercise for anyone new to forex or anyone that wants a refresher course: http://www.babypips.com/school

Also, here is a nice overview of the RSI: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...ngth_index_rsi

Best wishes in your trading endeavors!

Note: Everyone has their own way of using the RSI. Much depends on the period setting and the time frame. For instance, it isn't uncommon to see an RSI reading of 10 or 90 on the 5 minute time frame. This could happen in an hour or two during a strong burst of momentum. In contrast, to see a reading of 10 or 90 on the daily time frame would only occur in a very strong trend over many days or weeks.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #96,387
  • Apr 14, 2016 4:29am Apr 14, 2016 4:29am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Hi Benard. With all due respect, if you haven't checked this site out, you should. It is a very good basic resource and a productive exercise for anyone new to forex or anyone that wants a refresher course: http://www.babypips.com/school Also, here is a nice overview of the RSI: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...ngth_index_rsi Best wishes in your trading endeavors! Note: Everyone has their own way of using the RSI. Much depends on the period setting and the time...
well said
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,388
  • Apr 14, 2016 4:32am Apr 14, 2016 4:32am
Quoting Benard10
{quote} So what are your recommended settings for Overbought and Oversold?
You are using the RSI just like everyone else that lose money - forget that overbought and oversold mentality
  • #96,389
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:18am Apr 14, 2016 7:18am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Sometimes the best trading is just "waiting" COT shows alot of traders pulling out of AUD longs and shorts. ATM its far too risky to go long and no signal to short. Short entry was above .76900. Wait for aud employment data and will get some direction.
Yup lesson learned. NEVER EVER NEVER EVER trade on the day of AUD employment data. I thought the data being published another timezone another market away wouldn't affect the PA that much, I was wrong.

AUD was great for the past several weeks but starting this week, its PA's been piece of shit. Done with this currency. Not interested in a currency that is not in the driver's seat to control its own destiny and instead just allows itself to be dragged all over the place.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #96,390
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:23am Apr 14, 2016 7:23am
AUD employment data has always been good as of late - there's a lot of controversy about those figures.

Quite a lot of data in the next 24h, with some US data in 10 minutes. After reviewing my charts on all timeframes, my thesis is that the AUD has just hit a double top and will go down. Not sure how far down, but not a small amount. Very interested to see if this thesis holds.

In terms of positions, I have some longs from 76s which I'm still holding with SLs at 769, I want 4h confirmation of some sort before going short. I have closed about 60% of my total long positions an hour or so ago at 77.

If it does go up, I'm really not keen to take any further longs - I think it's less risky to then look for a good short opportunity. If it does down, 762-765 seems to be strong support at the moment.
  • #96,391
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:25am Apr 14, 2016 7:25am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
AUD employment data has always been good as of late - there's a lot of controversy about those figures. Quite a lot of data in the next 24h, with some US data in 10 minutes. After reviewing my charts on all timeframes, my thesis is that the AUD has just hit a double top and will go down. Not sure how far down, but not a small amount. Very interested to see if this thesis holds. In terms of positions, I have some longs from 76s which I'm still holding with SLs at 769, I want 4h confirmation of some sort before going short. I have closed about 60%...
at least 100-200 pips
  • #96,392
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:29am Apr 14, 2016 7:29am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
AUD employment data has always been good as of late - there's a lot of controversy about those figures. Quite a lot of data in the next 24h, with some US data in 10 minutes. After reviewing my charts on all timeframes, my thesis is that the AUD has just hit a double top and will go down. Not sure how far down, but not a small amount. Very interested to see if this thesis holds. In terms of positions, I have some longs from 76s which I'm still holding with SLs at 769, I want 4h confirmation of some sort before going short. I have closed about 60%...

Whichever way the AUD goes after news, there is quite likely to be a spike which will take out your SL at .769
  • #96,393
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:39am Apr 14, 2016 7:39am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Whichever way the AUD goes after news, there is quite likely to be a spike which will take out your SL at .769
Spike went other way

Anyway, all longs I just closed at about 7715, quite happy with that profit, I will wait for a reversal signal now to go short. If AUD keeps rallying, I'd be very surprised, but will do absolutely nothing about it.
  • #96,394
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:43am Apr 14, 2016 7:43am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Spike went other way Anyway, all longs I just closed at about 7715, quite happy with that profit, I will wait for a reversal signal now to go short. If AUD keeps rallying, I'd be very surprised, but will do absolutely nothing about it.

I'm with you Bud. Just before news, spikes often go one way, then the other with news, then back again before settling in true direction, I've been burned a few times by that, just thought I'd throw warning out there. I had longs too, closed one .7726, the other .7715
  • #96,395
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:57am Apr 14, 2016 7:57am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I'm with you Bud. Just before news, spikes often go one way, then the other with news, then back again before settling in true direction, I've been burned a few times by that, just thought I'd throw warning out there. I had longs too, closed one .7726, the other .7715
Did well to hold it up to .7726, think I'd have closed out before that point!
  • #96,396
  • Edited 10:23am Apr 14, 2016 9:33am | Edited 10:23am
Descending triangle (short term), taken a small short at 771 to test the waters.

Edit: Evening star on the 1h, 4h looking for confirmation but I need to go to bed.
  • #96,397
  • Apr 14, 2016 9:09pm Apr 14, 2016 9:09pm
Pretty obvious leak of Chinese data, I wonder who the big buyers were.
  • #96,398
  • Apr 14, 2016 10:49pm Apr 14, 2016 10:49pm
I have 2 targets at around 7750 and 7780 from previous smaller TF charts not hit on earlier up moves. Bulls may want to complete these 2 targets and given that those levels are very close to 78xx.......... the pair may not go too far below, 78xx may come first.

Below we have 7550-7580 and 7650 as supports.
  • #96,399
  • Apr 14, 2016 11:20pm Apr 14, 2016 11:20pm
AUDUSD is truly the pair that surprises, and it may well launch a bit higher, but it's looking really weak on the charts imo.
  • #96,400
  • Apr 14, 2016 11:33pm Apr 14, 2016 11:33pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
AUDUSD is truly the pair that surprises, and it may well launch a bit higher, but it's looking really weak on the charts imo.

Probably 7630-7650 will serve as support........ will buy the dip if it gets there.
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