TOP 100 best edges on forex charts: post good edges here

I will make a list: top 100 best edges on forex charts.

So please post good edges in this thread.

Good edges are considered:
- stimulating your perspective in the market
- any trader should know about and should have seen at least once
- getting inspiration for your own system
- (naturally, I don't consider a good edge: profitable in trading. The purpose of this thread is solely increasing our mindset and depth in the market by analysing different kind of edges.)(Note: a losing strategy of 90% loss to 89%)


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List of good edges:
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1.
2.
3.



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List of great websites to read about forex edges
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1. The number 1 website every trader should definitely know is the new version of Forex TSD (mladen) which is https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....8480&t=8430755 . (Recommended)
2.


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Thread 101-rules:
- Let's make an interesting thread like this: * What is an edge: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=161214

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Goal:
- Do the assignments to confirm if this is a forex edge.

Assignments in this thread:
- #1: (post 2: 0.01 vs 0.02 ratio) https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post11412630. Is this an edge: yes or no?
- #2: (post 9: only winners in a row) https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11413158. Is this an edge: yes or no?
- #3 (post 11: Do you agree that correctly worded edges are on the page) https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=784994. Is this an edge: yes or no?
- #4 (post 31: winners in a row using Risk Ratio) https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post11422286. Is this an edge: yes or no?
- #5: (post 32: "theory 70/20 rule" - Mark Boucher) https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post11422836. Is this an edge: yes or no?





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Hello reader, welcome to the discussion.

Discussion:
- What do you consider an edge?
--> me: consistent and positive (research) expectancy.
--> your opinion

- What forex myths are not considered an edge?
--> me: crossovers, divergences
--> your opinion

- How can one find an edge?
--> me:
- by reading charts 1 year 8 hours a day. It does help to view charts in different perspectives (using indicators, grids, visuals, a link). Do you agree?
- by finding reference points in the market and obtain a ton of statistics based on those points. Or are some edges non-statistics based, in your opinion?
- Here's the paradox: You need to know what you're looking for before you can find it. But, how do you know what to look for? That's why, in my own case, I'm looking to the market itself - rather than criss-crosses on the surfaces of charts. Do you agree?
- simple advantages like trading from Wednesday 0:01AM instead of 0:00AM already gives you a 1% edge. Everyone that is reading this thread knows about this edge, but please note, that this is also considered an edge. So everyone here will be able to contribute because we all have gained various edges in our experience, no matter how small.
--> your opinion

- There are 100s of edges. Do you agree that some edges can be found on naked charts, and others not?
--> me: yes
--> your opinion

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Edges explained:
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- What types of edges exist?
1. increase win rate
2. increase the average reward per win
3. increase frequency of trades

- What kinds of edges exist?
1. edges for ranged market, trend market, small reversal, momentum, timing, slopes, visuals, risk management, Market Structure & Orderflow, Pairs Correlations
- Edges exists of:
1. technical edges (computer with high CPU, knowledge of hotkeys, knowledge of adjusting your code, semi EA over manual, three ISPs)
2. forex chart edges
3. additional visuals
4. additional resources (psychological, independent feed data, tools (news feeds) and information)

Edge or bust?
Please tell your opinion if you think these edges are correct or a myth buster. How can you check if an edge is not just random luck?

Will this give an edge?
1. 1-2 risk reward (or rather 30:1)
2. Slow lotsize technique #1 (add lotsize if previous trade hits SL, remove 0.01 lotsize if previous trade hits TP
3. trade in the direction of the main trend
4. Sell LL, buy HH
5. market profile
6. Averaging

My opinion:
1. Bust
2. Correct
3. Correct
4. Correct
5. Correct
6. Correct

You can use this template to reply:
Your opinion about edges, is:
1. Correct/Bust
2. Correct/Bust
3. Correct/Bust
4. Correct/Bust
5. Correct/Bust
6. Correct/Bust


Let's make an interesting thread. If you'd like to see more interesting threads of this series:
- TOP 100 best indicators: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=767254
- TOP 100 best EAs: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=811119
- TOP 100 best threads: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=767232
- TOP 100 best things to-do in a Skype group: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post11578786
- Do you have affinity to give a helping hand on the other side? Then collect and filter data in a new thread named:
--> this is how to make profit: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=784994
- Is collaborating the goal in forex/forexfactory? https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post11218730

Maybe you, with your vast experience could solve the questions. Everyone in this thread will benefit from it. We appreciate it a lot!

Hello reader,

Please help us make this thread active.

In your opinion, what do you think of the slow lotsize technique:

Situation:
Let's assume we are using YOUR trading strategy and we combine this with my lotsize technique.
You strategy has 90% loss ratio, and 10% win over 1000 trades.

We can get an edge from 10% win ratio to 11%,
- if we increase the lotsize by 0.01, if previous trade is a loss.
- and also, if we decrease the lotsize by 0.01, if previous trade is a win.

What is the edge here:
1. Now the winning trades will always have higher lotsize than the losing trades. Do you agree?
2. What would you prefer: infinitely increase lotsize by 0.01 for each loss or only use 2 fixed variables which are 0.01 and 0.02?

My opinion:
2a) infinitely means you may run into deadzones and margin calls (aggressive, high DD)
2b) fixed means you avoid deadzones and margin calls (conservative, low DD)

What is your opinion? Is this an edge for you? And if so, would you use it in your strategy? Why or why not? Let's make an interesting thread.

You are talking abaut good old fashion martingale and with a 10% winratio i can say at once you will bust because with that winrate you could easily go on 30 straight losses and then you would have busted the available lotsize you start with 0.01 then 0.02 and then you go 0.04-0.08-0.16-0.32-0.64-1.28-2.56-5.2 and then 10.4 that is 11 losses straight and even with a 50/50 winratio this can happen and that will dig into your account bigtime.....But if you scale into a trade doubbleling lotsize for every 20 pips ore so the possebility too get out at breake even ore with a profit are substancial but if you get a move of 240 pips and more going straight against you...You will bust with that also...It isnt very often you get a 240 move straight against you without some retraise but today i watched USD/CAD going 70-80 pips straight down so it can happen and if it does you are bust....It needs too be backtested too get data on it...This is someting i did quick soo dont shoot me if i made some wrong in the mathematics here.....With some luck this can be very proffiteble someting i dont have if the market have the possibility too go against me it does ...I have too work for every penny and keep disiplined too make this work....I understand that this tread is abaut finding an edge and not only abaut dubbling lots...because you said here too increase lots with 0.01 at the time will not get you into profit on next trade because say if you do 0.01 loss then 0.02 loss thats a total of 0.03 with 20 pips on all 3 the third trade will get you too breake even you can increase the lotsize with 0.01 at the time if you increase the TP with 5 pips at the time that is a way too do it...There are many variables here you can try out,but after struggeling with binaryoptions for a long time i have experienced that martingale fail in the end...This is just my toughts on it i am sure there are many others having different opinions and that is greate would be boring if everybody tought the same...Happy trading all..

Thank you for your reply. I really appreciate it. It's great that you are thinking out of the box with todays USD/CAD that went 70-80 pips short.

I agree with your point about "infinitely means you may run into deadzones and margin calls (aggressive, high DD)". Even adding 0.01 at each loss (order 2: 0.02, order 3: 0.03, order 4: 0.04, order 5: 0.05 lotsize) incasu 5 consecutive losses, in the end a margin call may come.

Then, how do you view the second method 2b? Here the result will be different:
Situation 1:
order 1: 0.01
loss
order 2: 0.02
loss
Order 3: 0.02 (the maximum is 0.02 lotsize, it won't increase. Because here the lotsize is fixed: 0.01 or 0.02.)
loss
Order 4: 0.02
win

NETTO: relative loss
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Situation 2:
order 1: 0.01
loss
order 2: 0.02
win
Order 3: 0.01
loss
Order 4: 0.02
win

NETTO: relative profit (because losses have 0.01 lotsize, winners have 0.02 lotsize)

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Situation 3 (rule: only consecutive winners gets 0.02)
order 1: 0.01
loss
order 2: 0.01
win
Order 3: 0.01
win
Order 4: 0.02 (because 2 consecutive wins)
win
Order 5: 0.02 (because 3 consecutive wins)

NETTO: relative profit (because losses have 0.01 lotsize, 1 winner has 0.01 and 2 or more winners have 0.02 lotsize)


My opinion:
Assume the total loss of a run is 1% DD maximum. Then 2b is better than 2a (low DD). The only disadvantage is (like 2a), a consecutive row of losses (all 0.02 lotsize) results in lower profits (of 0.01 lotsize of winners). Unfortunately, one cannot slow down NETTO loss, if he increases the amount of fixed variables and resets immediately after a win. In situation 3, we see something really interesting because we are forcing consecutive winners to have more lotsize. Now the only way to reach NETTO loss is, if 2 consecutive winners are lining up with 1 loss. Do you think situation 3 gives an edge?

What is your opinion? Why would or would you not use this technique in your trading strategy? Would you prefer 5 fixed variables: 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 (where 5 is the maximum) so that 5 consecutive losses will still netto profit? In your opinion, how can one decrease the probability of consecutive losses? By increasing RR (as you said: increase TP)?

Impossible to share those edges .

I am not sure what you mean in situation 1 you have 3 losses and 1 winner and then in situation 2 you have 2 winners and 2 loozers how do that add up....but say you start with 0.01 loss TP 4 pips and then 0.02 TP 6 pips loss then 0.03 8 pips and so on but i am sitting here doing this in my head but i think at some point you need too go further than 4 pips for every 0.01 you increase... This will be the safest way too trade this and get an edge on the market after a win you start back at 0.01 and 4 pips...Atleast this is the way i think it will work....But this trading are very time consuming and you can use 1:1 ratio same SL as TP you can mayby when you come too that point you need too goo further than 4 pips increase TP with 4 pips and only increase SL with 2 pips.....Do i make any sence i hope soo...LOL

You should add "None of the above" to the poll.
I don't consider Risk/Reward and Position sizing as trading edges.

Trading edges are not static.
They don't live long due to effective market.
You'll always need to search for new edges while they last.

Good luck with the thread.
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PS: Michael, I just noticed that you opened a bunch of threads titled "TOP 100 you name it".
My advice is to focus on one thing and put your effort into it trying to produce some value.

As i said before anyway you turn and twist its still martingale in different disquise and will probebly fail you in the end if you are not full of luck....

Thank you! What do you think about situation 3?

Thank you!

I agree with Abok and Magne. Because an edge should be related to the forex market (the chart itself), while grid trading doesn't relate unless you force it. Do you agree?
By forcing, take a look at situation 3. In situation 3, we see something really interesting because we are forcing consecutive winners to have more lotsize. Now the only way to reach NETTO loss is, if 2 consecutive winners are lining up with 1 loss. Do you think situation 3 gives an edge?

Situation 3 (rule: only consecutive winners gets 0.02)
order 1: 0.01 lotsize
loss (Stoploss is hit)

order 2: 0.01
win (TP is hit)

Order 3: 0.01
win

Order 4: 0.02 (because 2 consecutive wins)
win

Order 5: 0.02 (because 3 consecutive wins)

NETTO: relative profit (because losses have 0.01 lotsize, 1 winner has 0.01 and 2 or more winners have 0.02 lotsize)

My opinion: does situation 3 give an edge?
a) no, because there is no logical reason that price will follow exactly a grid of consecutive winners.
b) no, because making an L-pattern of 2 winners and 1 loser as risk, doesn't relate to the forex chart
c) no, because one cannot control consecutive winners
Do you agree with both a, b and c?


@magne:
In my opinion one cannot slow down NETTO loss, if he increases the amount of fixed variables and resets immediately after a win. So, I don't think this will give an edge even if you increase the TP. Also in situation 1 you lose 0.01, 0.02, 0.03 = 0.06 loss and only win 0.04 before resetting. Yes, you slow down the winners and losers, but not the relative NETTO profit. Do you agree? Will increasing TP give an edge if the reason is: martingale?

Yes this is positive Martingale and a hole other ballgame we did the same with binary options if we took a trade for 10 dollar at 70% we took a trade for 17 and if win we took trade around 32 and then started at 10 again then you dont loose more than 10 dollars anyway it goes its the same with forex if you win a 4 pip win with 0.01 is 40 cent and then you take a 0.02 4 pips and win you have a free 0.03 pip trade and you can loose that without loosing anyting if you win you goo back too 0.01 ore if you loose the first one at 0.01 as you say you can do a 0.01 win and 0.02 win and the next trade of 0.02 is also a free trade.....The point beeing if you have a good winratio on your trades you can doo 3 trades like that and start over and have more profit than 3 trades with 0.01 fixed....But in the end its all abaut trying too win more trades than you loose ore get more positive pips than negative ones ore having this kind of moneymanagement(martingale)Then you can be red both with pips and winratio and still make money i take trades with high lotsize and 1 pip sl and 1-3 pips TP doing 1-2% pr pip and try and keep my winratio over 70% but today i shaved my account good because the mt4 frooze before i could put in the SL and with my luck it had gone over 30 pips against me before i had restarted the mt4 luckely it was a small account 800 dollars but anyway as i said before i have no luck in this so ihave gone down from 6 too 3 pairs now only trading the ones with 0.1 spread on my broker...I want too make sure this doesnt happen again and i added the tradingpanel again because there i can put on a fixed sl on 2.5 pips and close manually at 1 pip....So i need to redeposit a bit before trading tomorrow too have alittle too go on when i go in with a standard lot on 650 account....It sounds like way too much for a small account like that but this is the way i have done it for a while and with 1 pip stop i really dont risk more than 1.5% pr trade....The only problem is too bee disiplined eneugh too take the loss at 1 pip and not hope for it too turn around because as Sys.pus sais in the Killingfloor tread that with a 4 pip target the price will hit your target 90% of the time in a 24 our period but its that 1 out of 10 times you get it against you and get margincalled after loosing 45% of your account...Now its bedtime here in Norway starting my trading at 11.00 GMT 2 ours after London open when volitility have come down a bit...Happy trading and good night...

Thank you for your insight. I really like your mindset. I agree fully that most edges don't live long enough. We can bring ourselves to question whether the edges were the real deal or another stroke of luck. How do you recognize luck vs edge? Assuming chart based edges should relate to the market, then it makes sense that most edges are not static. I really appreciate your opinion, and I agree. But are all edges non-static? If so, why?

In my opinion, I don't think that all edges are non-static:
1. 20 degree slopes I consider the real deal and is in itself static.
2. main trend is static (based on: chart trend, MA trend, channel trend, figure trend)
3. horizontal lines and new swing high/low are static. Do you consider a suitable one, an edge?
4. A good system is one based on Law of large numbers. Also, more losses than winners, that let winners run are considered an edge. Do you agree? If yes, then it may contradict your statement "I don't consider Risk/Reward and Position sizing as trading edges." Because increasing RR, will give just that, unless you have another viewpoint that you'd like to share.
5. Do you agree that correctly worded edges are on the page: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=784994

Now, bringing ourselves back to the goal of the thread, an edge could be related to the forex market which is based on news events, SD mindset, swings, certain moments where price has high volatility, ranges or trends. Luck /= Edge. So what are edges based on or do they have features at all in your opinion?

Very much agree with Khalil. Imho, I don't consider you get an edge from charts. I may be wrong, but for me the edge comes from the trader and how they trade.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

charts are historic , they are road maps, there are no edges on charts.How can you get a edge on a map?

Thank you.

I think it is important to differentiate between odds and edges.
Odds are factors that add to the probability of success, and these are usually known to all traders.
A trading edge is how a specific trader (or a limited group of traders) reads and acts on a certain set of odds to make profit.

Two traders trade in trend direction

1. trader1 makes huge profit while suffering minimum draw down
2. trader2 makes small profit while suffering huge draw down

Two traders may even take the same trade:

1. trader1 makes huge profit, trader2 makes tiny profit
2. trader1 makes profit, trader2 makes loss
3. trader1 makes profit, trader2 exits at break-even
4. trader1 exits with small loss, trader2 exits with huge loss
5. .....

You can lose trading with the trend, and you can win trading against the trend.

Entry price/time, Exit price/time, and trade management are equally important.

Charts tell a story, people learn different lessons hearing the same story.

Trade exits should be reasonable with entry time frames.
It is not reasonable to trade M5 with 100 pips target, and it is not reasonable to trade D1 with 10 pips stop loss.

People interpret same things differently, trading is therefore 100 % psychological.Many traders will mess up profitable edges, all technical edges are worth zero , if they can't execute them.

The only edge traders have is their mental edge.

You get an edge by following a map by simply setting out a plan before hand. Most of us trader with some sort of bias which is what really keeps our accounts moving in the right direction. We have seen countless times people justify their positions becausw of numerous reasons only for the market to do the opposite. I think, it would be safe to say that an edge can be created once you have predetermined rules which will never be broken.
Most of us who are new and look for systems simply want it to work all the times, and if it doesn't we chalk it up to the market being, "random" or that the market is a "stop hunt call center".

Most 99 % of traders fail to follow their systems, so they have no edge left in system following.

EAS are systems , so how come there are no profitable EAS being sold?

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=809399

Why would you sell anything that works? Most people won't be able to afford such EA and you as a coder would earn more renting the EA wouldn't you?