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Technicals: short term vs long term

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Feb 23, 2008 9:22pm Feb 23, 2008 9:22pm
  •  scexglobal
  • | Additional Username | Joined Jan 2008 | 144 Posts
I have heard from several traders that technical indicators are more accurate on the higher time frames and give less false signals than on the low time frames. However, wouldn't fundamentals tend to override technicals on the daily/weekly charts? This seems to contradict this general assumption. What do you think?

scex
  • Post #2
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  • Feb 23, 2008 10:32pm Feb 23, 2008 10:32pm
  •  highway
  • Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Member | 1,352 Posts
Quoting scexglobal
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I have heard from several traders that technical indicators are more accurate on the higher time frames and give less false signals than on the low time frames. However, wouldn't fundamentals tend to override technicals on the daily/weekly charts? This seems to contradict this general assumption. What do you think?

scex
Ignored
OK - I will give it a try. On lower TF you see the charts reacting directly to every news that comes around. A good Asian morning Dow to a sharp drop during European and then going both ways during US. Fundamentals make the DOW fluctuates which then affect the currencies. Example a a good 1/4 ly profit report of a positive HP to a bad 1/4ly
loss of Texas instuments. Technicals are less likely to work well.
On the higher TF, interest rates etc. dictates the main direction which is then interpreted on the charts. For example when a few banks or instituitions gave a half annual forecast in June 2007 of the Eur-USD reaching 1.500 by the end of 2007, you will find that the technicals will always find its way again upwards even if your lower TF makes multiple dips. The higher TF bullish candle formations normally will set the Lower TF direction back to that of the Higher TF.
Probably not a clear explaination! - Just a try as I said.
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Feb 23, 2008 11:15pm Feb 23, 2008 11:15pm
  •  CounterTrend
  • | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: I trade against the trend | 286 Posts
Actually, technical analysis is more reliabe in the long term but does not mean it does not fail big time as well. It will still fail whether you view 1minute or 1month. The key point here is that technicals are less likely to change in response to quick and volatile price movements, therefore larger time frames filters the noise, and gives a clearer picture. It can still be true or wrong picture.
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Last Post: Aug 21, 2008 3:26am Aug 21, 2008 3:26am
  •  bmvmx
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 239 Posts
Quoting scexglobal
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I have heard from several traders that technical indicators are more accurate on the higher time frames and give less false signals than on the low time frames. However, wouldn't fundamentals tend to override technicals on the daily/weekly charts? This seems to contradict this general assumption. What do you think?

scex
Ignored
Totally agree, in fact, most of them were written for long TFs
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
 
 
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