fOcuS @ EUR/USD

we want to see 15500 break before we go down to 15400 to complete the wave. for now, hanging there to see if there is chance to short at pull back.
current resistance is 15550

051908 update

looks like we have forming 4H rasing wedge. the 15500 looks going to hold for a while. i dont see setup for short due to support still hold. we might want to see short term long run.

keep updating.John,,,

NIce to read ur journal!!


sonic

here is one issue i found today.

4h macd current forming two wave that seems like negative divergent, but it isnt qualify for the divergent rule. does any situation we an consider as double top macd that potential on turining direction? or this will be some kind of wave process before the real divergent form? feel free to join the discussion.

also, from my update few days ago, i only found 4h histogram negative divergent. this bring the price down to 15500 today. I think it isnt top of the price yet, due to potential rasing wedge formig at 4h. price might going little higher to form the real divergent.

feel free to join the discussion.

wow, price hit 161.8 fib ext target since bounce from 15500.

for the update, watch out for resistance 15550 and 15600.

this trade is current found in 15min.

a=15486, b=15524, c=15493

fib ext 1618=15542

if 15550/15575 break up, we will look for next target price at 15600 retest.

find the deep to long as the best chance of entry.

05-20 update

price had broken 15600 last night as we exect after it bounce from major support of 15500.

our next target is 15750. current suport at 15600-15631. but watch out the major price resistance which is 15700. it might get little tough to get trough.

we are in long mode. watch out for the pull back.

p.s. rasing wedge still in shape.

histogram divergent found in m30. we want to see other signal to confirm the short position.

short trade setup formed.

first target 15635
second target 15609
current resistance 15700

Good short

update, resistance is the same as 15700
support=target change to 15550

last confirmation for the short position.

m30 macd divergent, sto divergent. price get reject from major level of 15680=fib ext 127.

if price break 15631, we are looking price to 15608. or pssible 15562.

keep eyes on 15634 its a majort suppot.

15634 did not break out, and it make a new high to the new fib 127 target.
we will see from here if it make any pull back due to a clearly macd divergent and histogram divergent gona complete at major resistance level.

this level is 15750 also 4h 618 fib retrace level.
we still need to watch carefully with major support break fo short trade. it is 15700.

we are in the up trend mode that price move slowly to target of fib1618. this 1618 if from a=15300 b=15565 c=15400.
also, 1618 hit major price line 15800. this also the fib retrace 38.2 from 4h chart.

The macd divergent found in h chart at this area. this tells us the up trend move need a break now.

my expectation of the next move is pull back to 15750 or 15700. if one of them hold the price, we want see the new high going to kick in. otherwise, we will look for deeper pull back.

pirce level 15800 successfully hold the price with h macd negative divergent.

our fib 1618 ext=15700 is our first taget to hit. a=15750 b=15800 c=15783

this setup found in m30. price is going to test 15700 level.

if there is sign of break down 15700 level, i will wait for pull back to short and aim next target at 15600 if i found a,b,c forming.

m~ price is pull back to major resistance=15750 area now.
good time for another short. ^^

following target is 15650 then 15600. let see which one will hold....

analysis update

15750 do have a very stron resistance level. watch it out closly you will find the line custer with 4h 618 down trend, 4h 382 down trend, and 15750 major price ine.

i will expect it going down to 15700 or 15650 area.

let see if this is a big retrace down or the start of the new down trend move.

retracemnt fail to break 15700.

keep eye on 15800 break or hold.

Due to I am currently upgrading my trading strategy, I did not post journal for a while.

I will begin to post once again.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

(06-09-08)

since last time i mention 15800 is a major resistance, it formed a double top back at 5/27/08 and confirm the resistance hold.

I enter trade once again price hit 15800 again at 6/9/08 for short.

o 15769 / sl 15740 / tp 15704

as the result profit 65 pips.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

(06-10-08)

today, due to the top been reject, enter another short and aim target price 15400 for major support. this support had been bounce back 06-05-08 as round bottom.

open 2 position first one target 15500, second one target 15400.

first position close

o 15580 / sl 15704 / tp 15504

result profit 76 pips.

second position remain open,

so fart 100 pips profit. going to hold till 15400 and slowly move the stop down.



---------------------------------------------------------------------