fOcuS @ EUR/USD

Analysis of the day (02-13-08)

WK Chart: Price fail to break major support twice, and trendline is Forming
a potential uptrend triangle

D Chart: uptrend trendline hold price, and price fail to break major support three times. stochastic is up. price might test major resistance.

4H Chart: price forming tweezer bottom in major support.

o sl tp
Position open:14569 / 14536 / 14649

o sl tp
14569 / 14601 / 14648

move stop up to 14601

position been take out by stop

profit 32 pips into bank.

After my position been take out by stop loss, target price had reach 14648

New trade setup spot at Thursday Night.

Channel formed in h.
uptrend Trendline havnt break. macd and sto in 4h are both up.
day macd and sto are both up too.

potential retest next resistance from last night.

paper trade position open
o 14630 / sl 14574 / tp 14692

did not open in live acct. because winning and lost ratio is only 1:0.8 or less.

Result this morning. target price reached.

Sunday night

There is no long term setup, but some how, there is short term one.

Price reach major resistance at 14691.
4h sto cross down. so does macd
h sto cross down, macd is down too.

expecting a short retrace to the 4h uptrend trendline.
this is the level where major support 14645 is.

i do not take this trade, but for your reference, here is my paper trade position.

o 14678 / sl 14709 / tp 14655

target price of 14655 had reached.

paper trade success.

this is a dangerous retrace trend trade. i did not open i live acct instead of paper trade.

Short term trade setup found.

4H macd is down, but sto is up. potential retest the previous resisteance.

15m have channel after bounce from the 4H trendline.

this is not a worth trade to risk, instead, I will post this trade as my paper trade.

o 14662 / sl 14642 / tp 14689

14689= day resistance level.

the paper trade from last night successed reached the target price 14687.

due to this strong thrust appear at 4h chart that broke the major resistance, the price might go beyong the price and test the weekly resistance level which is 14830.

in other hand, this consolidate action since 11-23-07 might forming a uptrend triangle.

tonight, the setup isnt good for long. due to the resistance 14755 reached, we have to watch out for the pull back.

4H macd cross down, H macd and sto both are down. its a good short trade for counter trade.

but i still waiting for good setup for the long trade.
in tonight's action, i will still paper trade for short to the trendline.

o 14731 / sl14757 / tp 14713

due to the price is very close to the trendline, we dont know if its gona break. i will set the target very close to the trendline.

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my desktop break down >< cnt stay on the top of last nit's action

i see the result this morning. the paper trade i did last night had success reach target.

for the further action expectation, please see below.

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price reached weekly support and day trendline. this is a good chance to enter in low price, but i will need to see the confirmation of sto and macd cross up in 4H AND H. at this moment, i dont see any setup.

if macd and sto cross up, enter for long. expecting target price is next resistance 14826

if trendline break, macd and sto fail to cross up, we might want to see short trade setup. expecting target price will be 14592 for first support.

hopfully we can see clear setup for long trade tonight.

since this sunday i dont have much time to watch the trend for setup due to my kid's sickness. >< AND computer break down ><

i miss lot of opportunity this week, but any how, i am still here to write my trading journal.

this morning, i check the price had ALMOST reach the weekly resustance at 14830. this is how i expect since this sunday.

i saw a good setup for last night, but dont have chance to enter.

here is the analysis

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day macd is up. trendline hold for uptrend move.

4h trendline hold, price bounce twice from major weekly support level 14646 and day support level 14633. sto is cross up for good uptrend setup.

h since last night, macd is uptrend moving. this confirm the last night's setup.

if enter last night, o 14721 / sl 14664 / tp 14792

this is a very good trading setup.

risk 57 to gain 71 pip
ratio is 1:1.31

the open price is according to where i saw the chart last night at. (inverse hammar)

hopefully i can catch the trend next week ><

Analysis for the position:

day chart: price reached weekly resistance 14863
4h: trendline break down, macd and sto both down.
h: macd down for the downtrend confirmation.

o 14826 / sl 14865 / tp 14773

profit 58 risk 34
ratio 1:1.71

Hi, looking to the forum, i found your last post about eur-usd, i'm short from 1.4826, so it's nice to see that there is another "shorter" in the fxfactory Good luck

Here the image that explain my entry and my target.
http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/275...ysisek3.th.jpg

thx for post. i will update the result tomorrow.

this is looking better and better in this position for now.

happy trade ^^

this morning, position did not break down 618 ext level and reach 100 level.
in other hand, 4h sto had oversold, h macd cross up.
new trendline hold the price.

as the result, close position manualy with few pips gain.

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new openning position.

at this point, price might not break down instead test the high.
due to day macd is up, 4h sto had cross UP, h macd cross up.

position open

o 14831 / sl 14790 / tp 14888

62 profit 36 risk
1:1.72 risk and reward ratio

Yes, what a bad surprise, i get stopped out (3 pips profit :S), i still think that a down-move is probable, but i don't think i'll short again for today, and also not long. Good job anyway better +3 then a loss

move target price to 14852 and stop to 14810

100 fib ext from h chart

4h macd still down, target in h 100 instead of 4h 618 fib ext.

this trade still very dangerous. due to the week resistance is having pressure to the previous high. as the result, target price have to be close.

outch... my stop was too high, and i was been taken out.
well. anyway.. draw down is a part of the trade.

right now, the trend is forming the uptrend triangle, but combine to macd and sto in 4h, it looks like head and shoulder.

i might open the short for this, but i am not sure yet. still in mid of analysis.

ok. position open.

here is the analysis:
day sto cross down
4h up trend trendline break out, macd corss down in good parallel angel.
h macd cross down for down trend confirmation.

price pattern looks like head and shoulder. because 4h is down, h is down.
its better view then uptrend triangle.

o 14817 / sl 14846 / tp 14776

risk 27 profit 43
1:1.72 risk and reward ratio

this trade was half success.

the target almost reach (short 3pips), then it bounce back very hard before target price.

result draw down.

this is the long trade pull back i mentioned before. but it didnt reach 100 fib ext yet.

i might change to target price to fib ext 618 instead of 100 from now on. i feel it more safty to trade short target. cause we never know if 618 gona break and reach 100 or not. but for sure, 618 will be touch either side before that.

it about all i want to adjust my trading strategy.

Im sorry, I mean no offense, so with respect I might suggest you are over using technicals under these market conditions. I trade euro/usd and the trade has very clearly been long upon the break above 1.4700. Im weening off of the technicals and trying to learn the P/A methods and more fundamental. Just my two cents. Thank you for your blog.