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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #6,221
  • Apr 10, 2018 3:31am Apr 10, 2018 3:31am
Quoting Lock
As a second scenario, a liquidation is always possible, considering the weakness of this market. But remember that upside we got 41735 pit poor high, 41823 GB poor high and 41995 Tokyo poor high that are all weak levels left upside from March. A third and last scenario could be rotation around major composite poc 4156.
Inside period, balance rules apply. Furthermore those weaknesses are still there and now we also got a new GB poor high....

4200 almost sure.
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  • #6,222
  • Apr 10, 2018 3:43am Apr 10, 2018 3:43am
Always remember that this is a very weak market and, as in any situation like this, we should always remember that weak participants could be forced out in any moment by stronger ones (now probably observing them)
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  • #6,223
  • Apr 10, 2018 3:45am Apr 10, 2018 3:45am
Quoting Lock
Always remember that this is a very weak market and, as in any situation like this, we should always remember that weak participants could be forced out in any moment by stronger ones (now probably observing them)
How I know this market is ruled by weak hands? Have a look at the last 2 periods lows almost exactly at open price level 4147: who do you think is buying at such an exact level? Stronger hands or weak ones?
And furthermore have a look at the first GB period low (A period) just a pip above yesterday GB close level 4135: again, who do you think was buying there, weak or strong participants?
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  • #6,224
  • Apr 10, 2018 3:52am Apr 10, 2018 3:52am
Quoting Lock
{quote} How I know this market is ruled by weak hands? Have a look at the last 2 periods lows almost exactly at open price level 4147: who do you think is buying at such an exact level? Stronger hands or weak ones? And furthermore have a look at the first GB period low (A period) just a pip above yesterday GB close level 4135: again, who do you think was buying there, weak or strong participants?
Now, this does not mean that price action cannot continue higher towards the old March weaknesses underlined previously (btw I'm betting on this), but it means that you should be prepared to at least a second scenario in which stronger hands could decide to punish, in any moment, those weak hands aiming at such result.
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  • #6,225
  • Apr 10, 2018 11:50am Apr 10, 2018 11:50am
Quoting Lock
As a second scenario, a liquidation is always possible, considering the weakness of this market. But remember that upside we got 41735 pit poor high, 41823 GB poor high and 41995 Tokyo poor high that are all weak levels left upside from March. A third and last scenario could be rotation around major composite poc 4156.
Of the March weaknesses left upside today price action already removed pit 41735 and GB 41823. Anyhow all what we saw during current US session is very very poor and right now we already have 2 back to back pit poor low left downside: 41227 (made yesterday) and 41537 (made today). Furthermore we still are in the zone of attraction of major composite poc 4156.

So I suggest to be very prudent because after the removal of 2 of 3 of the upper weaknesses odds are now neutral. (Even though I do not consider 4181 a possible good definitive pit high)
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  • #6,226
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:00pm Apr 10, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} How I know this market is ruled by weak hands? Have a look at the last 2 periods lows almost exactly at open price level 4147: who do you think is buying at such an exact level? Stronger hands or weak ones? And furthermore have a look at the first GB period low (A period) just a pip above yesterday GB close level 4135: again, who do you think was buying there, weak or strong participants?
Quoting Lock
{quote} Now, this does not mean that price action cannot continue higher towards the old March weaknesses underlined previously (btw I'm betting on this), but it means that you should be prepared to at least a second scenario in which stronger hands could decide to punish, in any moment, those weak hands aiming at such result.
And at last, here you have weak hands punished at 4147...
And note that the punishment occurred only after the correction of 2 of the 3 March weaknesses left upside...
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  • #6,227
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:03pm Apr 10, 2018 12:03pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Of the March weaknesses left upside today price action already removed pit 41735 and GB 41823. Anyhow all what we saw during current US session is very very poor and right now we already have 2 back to back pit poor low left downside: 41227 (made yesterday) and 41537 (made today). Furthermore we still are in the zone of attraction of major composite poc 4156. So I suggest to be very prudent because after the removal of 2 of 3 of the upper weaknesses odds are now neutral. (Even though I...
41537 today pit poor low removed (but new low again poor for now). So right now we got a weak high at 4181 and still 2 back to back poor lows (plus the weak GB level at 4135 left this morning.)
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  • #6,228
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:05pm Apr 10, 2018 12:05pm
Remember in any case the power of attraction of 4156 major composite poc: this market is very weak.
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  • #6,229
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:08pm Apr 10, 2018 12:08pm
btw this time I'm betting downside, but carefully monitoring the situation and being prepared to shakeout. See you later.
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  • #6,230
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:20pm Apr 10, 2018 12:20pm
Quoting Lock
Remember in any case the power of attraction of 4156 major composite poc: this market is very weak.
All the way back to comp poc 4156...
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  • #6,231
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:24pm Apr 10, 2018 12:24pm
Quoting Lock
Remember in any case the power of attraction of 4156 major composite poc: this market is very weak.
Quoting Lock
btw this time I'm betting downside, but carefully monitoring the situation and being prepared to shakeout. See you later.
And this was very tricky: being not prepared for shake out and being not aware of the power of attraction of composite poc 4156 could have been lethal....
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  • #6,232
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:27pm Apr 10, 2018 12:27pm
Fire cracker effect to 4181 possible now.
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  • #6,233
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:30pm Apr 10, 2018 12:30pm
But the game remains the same: 4156 still pole of attraction and weaknesses left downside (meaning weak buyers into this).
So let's see: it could remove the weak 4181 and then retrace downside again (as we are in a rotational environment). Or remove 4181 and then attempt a spike to 4200
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  • #6,234
  • Apr 10, 2018 12:38pm Apr 10, 2018 12:38pm
Quoting Lock
But the game remains the same: 4156 still pole of attraction and weaknesses left downside (meaning weak buyers into this). So let's see: it could remove the weak 4181 and then retrace downside again (as we are in a rotational environment). Or remove 4181 and then attempt a spike to 4200
In case of spike to 4200, remember that 42285 is March highest close level: so a test there is not impossible.
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  • #6,235
  • Apr 10, 2018 1:02pm Apr 10, 2018 1:02pm
Too weak market for now. 4156 too strong. I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
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  • #6,236
  • Apr 10, 2018 1:08pm Apr 10, 2018 1:08pm
Quoting Lock
Too weak market for now. 4156 too strong. I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
wait a moment here...
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  • #6,237
  • Apr 10, 2018 1:09pm Apr 10, 2018 1:09pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} wait a moment here...
The fact is that I've a buy at 41615 and I cannot decide to close it.

This market is very weak and I should go but I do not want to see price spike just a second after my close
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  • #6,238
  • Apr 10, 2018 1:53pm Apr 10, 2018 1:53pm
Quoting Lock
[...]. Furthermore we still are in the zone of attraction of major composite poc 4156. So I suggest to be very prudent because after the removal of 2 of 3 of the upper weaknesses odds are now neutral. (Even though I do not consider 4181 a possible good definitive pit high)
Quoting Lock
Fire cracker effect to 4181 possible now.
Quoting Lock
But the game remains the same: 4156 still pole of attraction and weaknesses left downside (meaning weak buyers into this). So let's see: it could remove the weak 4181 and then retrace downside again (as we are in a rotational environment). Or remove 4181 and then attempt a spike to 4200
Quoting Lock
Too weak market for now. 4156 too strong. I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
...5 minutes later (in the meanwhile price tagged my entry level but was not able to continue any lower)

Quoting Lock
{quote} wait a moment here...
Quoting Lock
{quote} The fact is that I've a buy at 41615 and I cannot decide to close it. This market is very weak and I should go but I do not want to see price spike just a second after my close
well... sometimes patience means reward.. spike and 4181 eventually taken out

now let's see if it will retrace towards 4156 or if it will continue to 4200 (this morning I considered 4200 an almost sure level to take out, then market during GB session slowed down completely and we spent the entire day in a wearying liquidation)
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  • #6,239
  • Apr 10, 2018 2:02pm Apr 10, 2018 2:02pm
I generally do not post my entries but because I wrote about it today, I'm forced to:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-04-10_20-58-18_patience and reward.jpg Size: 27 KB
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  • #6,240
  • Apr 10, 2018 2:08pm Apr 10, 2018 2:08pm
Well, see you next days. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
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