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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #6,201
  • Mar 28, 2018 9:12am Mar 28, 2018 9:12am
Now, if we get acceptation back above yesterday pit low 41175 we could imagine at least the correction of today downside action up to 41995 and then in case of continuation up to 4244.

If instead we will see rejection above 41175 we could expect continuation downside towards the huge amount of weaknesses left there, down to 3982.

A note about the last 30 days: what a crazy market!
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  • #6,202
  • Mar 28, 2018 9:17am Mar 28, 2018 9:17am
We are between some almost equal major composite pocs: we have two of them upside at 4156 and 4261 and one downside at 3966. So, unless price will leave completely this zone, these levels are the safest places at which business has been conducted so far. I mean that they will tend to attract price in case of indecision. And markets are in a situation of huge indecision.
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  • #6,203
  • Mar 28, 2018 11:07am Mar 28, 2018 11:07am
Quoting Lock
Now, if we get acceptation back above yesterday pit low 41175 we could imagine at least the correction of today downside action up to 41995 and then in case of continuation up to 4244. If instead we will see rejection above 41175 we could expect continuation downside towards the huge amount of weaknesses left there, down to 3982. A note about the last 30 days: what a crazy market!
So price went exactly to 41175, didn't find acceptation above it, then liquidated. I do not like this high as it is too exact. Anyway I also do not like current low that is poor at 40905.

I mean, unless price will attempt again above 41175, finding acceptation above it, odds are now to liquidate. If instead price will attempt and succeed to gain acceptation above it we could imagine a complete reversal to 41995.
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  • #6,204
  • Mar 29, 2018 3:28am Mar 29, 2018 3:28am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So price went exactly to 41175, didn't find acceptation above it, then liquidated. I do not like this high as it is too exact. Anyway I also do not like current low that is poor at 40905. I mean, unless price will attempt again above 41175, finding acceptation above it, odds are now to liquidate. If instead price will attempt and succeed to gain acceptation above it we could imagine a complete reversal to 41995.

Price never tested again 41175 and then we got a liquidation.

Now, I suggest to note that yesterday GB session was an inside one. SO we are in an attempted breakout downside from balance: consequently level to check are Tuesday GB low 4090 and yesterday GB low 41335. For a confirmation of this attempted break we have to not return above these levels and specially to not obtain acceptation above them.

If so we could continue lower to 3982. If instead you'll see price accepted above them we could see a complete reversal of the balance range up to 41995 and more.
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  • #6,205
  • Mar 29, 2018 3:38am Mar 29, 2018 3:38am
Remember that 4028 is the half back of the entire major range from 26/01/2018 to 01/03/2018
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  • #6,206
  • Mar 29, 2018 4:53am Mar 29, 2018 4:53am
A short covering is not impossible but consider that current low is extraordinary weak and poor at 4034. So carry forward this info.
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  • #6,207
  • Mar 29, 2018 4:56am Mar 29, 2018 4:56am
Also remember, as I wrote this morning, that for a failure downside we need acceptation above 4090 and 41335. If not...

Quoting Lock
{quote} Price never tested again 41175 and then we got a liquidation. Now, I suggest to note that yesterday GB session was an inside one. SO we are in an attempted breakout downside from balance: consequently level to check are Tuesday GB low 4090 and yesterday GB low 41335. For a confirmation of this attempted break we have to not return above these levels and specially to not obtain acceptation above them. If so we could continue lower to 3982. If instead you'll see price accepted above them we could see a complete reversal of the...
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  • #6,208
  • Mar 29, 2018 11:13am Mar 29, 2018 11:13am
Quoting Lock
A short covering is not impossible but consider that current low is extraordinary weak and poor at 4034. So carry forward this info.
4034 taken out by US pit session.

Quoting Lock
Remember that 4028 is the half back of the entire major range from 26/01/2018 to 01/03/2018
And note price up and down 4028.

Finally current low is poor and weak again. 3982 is not impossible. At the same time do not forget what we are leaving upside, like the poor high of current pit session
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  • #6,209
  • Mar 29, 2018 11:27am Mar 29, 2018 11:27am
Note E inside period: balance rules apply.
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  • #6,210
  • Apr 9, 2018 2:10am Apr 9, 2018 2:10am
4156 is possible (composite poc)
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  • #6,211
  • Apr 9, 2018 2:16am Apr 9, 2018 2:16am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So price went exactly to 41175, didn't find acceptation above it, then liquidated. I do not like this high as it is too exact. Anyway I also do not like current low that is poor at 40905. I mean, unless price will attempt again above 41175, finding acceptation above it, odds are now to liquidate. If instead price will attempt and succeed to gain acceptation above it we could imagine a complete reversal to 41995.
I suggest to note that Tokyo tagged exactly 41175 that was already weak from 29.03 as a perfect tag of a previous Pit low (made during 27.03): so with this new tag we have now an extraordinary weak level there.

Furthermore current GB session opened with a huge new gap upside from Friday GB session high 4025. SO, unless this new gap will be filled (and quickly filled) odds are in favor for a continuation upside)
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  • #6,212
  • Apr 9, 2018 2:19am Apr 9, 2018 2:19am
As a second possible (but less probable) scenario we could imagine a full liquidation towards Friday GB session poor low at 39832: but this will require a fast filling of current new GB gap upside (down to 4025) and a consequent acceptation back inside Friday GB range (below 4025).

For this to happen the first step has to be acceptation below Friday GB close level 40877. If not odds will remain upside oriented.
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  • #6,213
  • Apr 9, 2018 2:35am Apr 9, 2018 2:35am
About my last analysis:

Quoting Lock
{quote} 4034 taken out by US pit session. {quote} And note price up and down 4028. Finally current low is poor and weak again. 3982 is not impossible. At the same time do not forget what we are leaving upside, like the poor high of current pit session
During the last days, starting from 27.03, we saw price up and down 4028 and finally a spike test below 3982 and then a full correction upside.
I stressed previously the importance of 4028 as the mid level of the entire range from 25.01 to 01.03:

Quoting Lock
Remember that 4028 is the half back of the entire major range from 26/01/2018 to 01/03/2018
And as you see my analysis are based upon reasonable market generated information.
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  • #6,214
  • Apr 9, 2018 2:57am Apr 9, 2018 2:57am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I suggest to note that Tokyo tagged exactly 41175 that was already weak from 29.03 as a perfect tag of a previous Pit low (made during 27.03): so with this new tag we have now an extraordinary weak level there. Furthermore current GB session opened with a huge new gap upside from Friday GB session high 4025. SO, unless this new gap will be filled (and quickly filled) odds are in favor for a continuation upside)
I might say: 41175 served on a silver plate.

And now, after a more than probable test above 41175, for a serious continuation towards 4156 we need acceptation above it (41175) as a first step, then above 41335. If not, meaning if we will see no acceptation above both of them, we could imagine a new correction downside or balance around overnight poc (4095)
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  • #6,215
  • Apr 9, 2018 3:39am Apr 9, 2018 3:39am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I might say: 41175 served on a silver plate. And now, after a more than probable test above 41175, for a serious continuation towards 4156 we need acceptation above it (41175) as a first step, then above 41335. If not, meaning if we will see no acceptation above both of them, we could imagine a new correction downside or balance around overnight poc (4095)
C inside period: balance rules apply. Weak half back tagged twice at 4097 just a couple of pips above overnight poc 4095. Still very weak high at 41175 for now only tagged by GB and not tested above.
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  • #6,216
  • Apr 9, 2018 5:30am Apr 9, 2018 5:30am
Quoting Lock
{quote} C inside period: balance rules apply. Weak half back tagged twice at 4097 just a couple of pips above overnight poc 4095. Still very weak high at 41175 for now only tagged by GB and not tested above.
D and F periods attempted above C (retagging 41175 that is now exceptionally weak), they didn't find acceptation above it and then liquidated removing the weak half back at 4097: balance rules apllied.
Now, unless the liquidation will gain momentum downside, odds are clearly in favor to a correction (and a test above) of 41175
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  • #6,217
  • Apr 9, 2018 5:37am Apr 9, 2018 5:37am
Quoting Lock
{quote} D and F periods attempted above C (retagging 41175 that is now exceptionally weak), they didn't find acceptation above it and then liquidated removing the weak half back at 4097: balance rules applied. Now, unless the liquidation will gain momentum downside, odds are clearly in favor to a correction (and a test above) of 41175
I wrote "unless" because current market is extremely weak and uncertain (as seen in the last days and weeks) and in such a market momentum traders have always some possibilities to put themselves in serious troubles, even against any odds or rationality. But let's see.

An important factor (underlined this morning) is Friday GB close level 40877. For now we never got acceptation below it.
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  • #6,218
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:51am Apr 9, 2018 6:51am
Quoting Lock
{quote} D and F periods attempted above C (retagging 41175 that is now exceptionally weak), they didn't find acceptation above it and then liquidated removing the weak half back at 4097: balance rules applied. Now, unless the liquidation will gain momentum downside, odds are clearly in favor to a correction (and a test above) of 41175
And here we are again at 41175 as highly expected
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  • #6,219
  • Apr 9, 2018 8:53am Apr 9, 2018 8:53am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I might say: 41175 served on a silver plate. And now, after a more than probable test above 41175, for a serious continuation towards 4156 we need acceptation above it (41175) as a first step, then above 41335. If not, meaning if we will see no acceptation above both of them, we could imagine a new correction downside or balance around overnight poc (4095)
4156 major composite poc reached. Now we need to see if price will preserve current new pit gap higher from Friday pit session range high 41043. If so, 4200 is expected next.
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  • #6,220
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:06am Apr 9, 2018 9:06am
As a second scenario, a liquidation is always possible, considering the weakness of this market. But remember that upside we got 41735 pit poor high, 41823 GB poor high and 41995 Tokyo poor high that are all weak levels left upside from March.

A third and last scenario could be rotation around major composite poc 4156.
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