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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,541
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:20pm Jan 10, 2008 1:20pm
Quoting 24HourTrader
This chart highlights something I've been wondering about. The black fib was broken through upwards first, and hit the 138%. However, you kept your fib the same and it broke down and hit the bottom 138%. Why didn't you erase the fib when the first upper 138% was hit and that new high was made at the 138%?

Could it be that unless a 138% is broken, you consider the cycle still active?
Leave it to the Edina guy (cake eaters)...lol

It's not that the cycle ended or not, it's whether or not it's still useful. If it doesn't reach it's target or reaches to the pip, I'll leave it on the chart to see if price will react to it. If it does, I'll take a cautious trade - if I can follow the price with another fib.
Robonacci com
  • #1,542
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:26pm Jan 10, 2008 1:26pm
definition of a Professional trader?

I think Brunite nailed it........

not sure if this applies to Skunny's thread but as a tangent along the lines of becoming and behaving like a Professional trader and having a well rounded "Pro" education. I would suggest everyone also go read the "Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread by fti.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639

This thread is a great read and it's not really a method or system thread for me as much as it is a thinking thread that will stretch your mind on the psychological aspect of trading. Some regulars here on Skunny's thread have posted their too. I have already used some of his ideas on warfare to fight hard and battle a bad trade "at all costs". Stuff I never knew or even thought about till I read his thread have helped me immensely.

MickD has a great signature line from fti's thread.......
"damage is part of the battle, recovery is essential , victory is the objective." - fti
trading naked.......
  • #1,543
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:28pm Jan 10, 2008 1:28pm
Quoting Bobokus
Im cooking up some tomater gravy N bisckits, you ont me ta fedex ya sum.

I ont your recipe!

I've been reading, and studying, and really enjoying this thread. I can hardly wait to get all the way through it. This is really the Moley Grail of Holy Grails so far. I had began to wonder if I could ever find the consistency in trading, you guys know what I'm speaking of - you do all the prep work, place the trade, and 30 minutes later it turns the other way. There is hope! Thank you all, Skunny, Bobb, and Blueruby for your great work here and dedication.

Kathy
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #1,544
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:33pm Jan 10, 2008 1:33pm
i wanted to share some thoughts right or wrong and soundboard

. I have been following ej and reverse engineering skunny's chart (s)and drawing fibs all morning here is the end result
Price goes up and down

based on charts I have seen and light testing... it is my current opinion that price moves in 132 cycles. A cycle is complete once a both 132's are touched. This leads me to test, that a valid cycle has to complete for price to move on so it follows a touch of 132 means then next 132 is next.


I have to chart this my self but look at skunnys charts... the break of the polar 132 signal a new cycle and old measurements are invalid.

It was bugging me why Skunny always had "what I thought" were completed cycles open on his charts. I never had a touched 132 on my charts after it was hit.

I THINK price moves along say a "sine wave comprised of mini sine waves..boxed in and completing many equidistant resistance zones that apparently happen to be the fib 132...

this tech we see one zone or measure it... and by virtue of know where one is the fib shows us the other. prices is contantly going "somewhere" and that somewhere is defined by the cycle until a smaller cycle takes it out of there.

Since this is not discretionary so you HAVE to be able measure the swings precisely (not guess) this is what will cause bad trades IMO.

I am working on this..

Skunny's ej chart had a zero I couldn't fib on that tf using fibs i was wayy off...
but on 5m I think? it was dead on I think you can have at least two sets of fibs rocking at once dynamically top to bottom and bottom to top if that makes sense.

I think this is what caused my frequent, fabulous fibbing failures and the following frustration from failing fantastically.


So to not confuse myself ,

I am just going to crack the 15m of the GY because... if this bears out.. that is all you need. maybe even just a 5/15m a 1m . If this is in anyway true I am going to laugh at myself a lot for over complicating things. then eat ice cream. I love ice cream. mmmmm

Anywho.. if my hypothesis is right...( since it is untested )we shoud hit 215.42 . right now the only thing I "know" is the next main target is the bigger bear tp. I am just going to watch it play out. but I would buy on spikes under 216

Sizz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,545
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:35pm Jan 10, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting Skunny
Leave it to the Edina guy (cake eaters)...lol

It's not that the cycle ended or not, it's whether or not it's still useful. If it doesn't reach it's target or reaches to the pip, I'll leave it on the chart to see if price will react to it. If it does, I'll take a cautious trade - if I can follow the price with another fib.
Haven't been called a cake eater in awhile LOL!

So as long as it's not broken, it may still be useful. Interesting! So when you say you may take a cautious trade if you can follow with another fib, where would you start this new fib with which to "follow"? It doesn't look like you added a new fib from that first 138%, so where else could you fib from? Thanks a bunch!
  • #1,546
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:01pm Jan 10, 2008 2:01pm
Quoting Skunny
I'm not sure at this point. It's been a roller coaster and it concerns me a little tiny bit. It's been creating a web of fibs today

That was a nice 51 pips for me. Now what will it do? lol
  • #1,547
  • Edited 2:13pm Jan 10, 2008 2:08pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting sizzler
i wanted to share some thoughts right or wrong and soundboard

. I have been following ej and reverse engineering skunny's chart (s)and drawing fibs all morning here is the end result
Price goes up and down

based on charts I have seen and light testing... it is my current opinion that price moves in 132 cycles. A cycle is complete once a both 132's are touched. This leads me to test, that a valid cycle has to complete for price to move on so it follows a touch of 132 means then next 132 is next.


I have to chart this my self but look at skunnys charts... the break of the polar 132 signal a new cycle and old measurements are invalid.

It was bugging me why Skunny always had "what I thought" were completed cycles open on his charts. I never had a touched 132 on my charts after it was hit.

I THINK price moves along say a "sine wave comprised of mini sine waves..boxed in and completing many equidistant resistance zones that apparently happen to be the fib 132...

this tech we see one zone or measure it... and by virtue of know where one is the fib shows us the other. prices is contantly going "somewhere" and that somewhere is defined by the cycle until a smaller cycle takes it out of there.

Since this is not discretionary so you HAVE to be able measure the swings precisely (not guess) this is what will cause bad trades IMO.

I am working on this..

Skunny's ej chart had a zero I couldn't fib on that tf using fibs i was wayy off...
but on 5m I think? it was dead on I think you can have at least two sets of fibs rocking at once dynamically top to bottom and bottom to top if that makes sense.

I think this is what caused my frequent, fabulous fibbing failures and the following frustration from failing fantastically.


So to not confuse myself ,

I am just going to crack the 15m of the GY because... if this bears out.. that is all you need. maybe even just a 5/15m a 1m . If this is in anyway true I am going to laugh at myself a lot for over complicating things. then eat ice cream. I love ice cream. mmmmm

Anywho.. if my hypothesis is right...( since it is untested )we shoud hit 215.42 . right now the only thing I "know" is the next main target is the bigger bear tp. I am just going to watch it play out. but I would buy on spikes under 216

Sizz
Sizz,

Sounds like you are going pretty much exactly the same road I've been 'splorin. You described it in a way I never could! (lol) Like you said....it's a hypothesis I've been trading real time to see how well it holds. Weird thing.....a bunch of additional things keep showing themselves.....new tangents that need looking at.....all good stuff that helps pinpoint targets and reversals (still hard to believe we are talking in such terms).....still trying to organize everything.

Bottom line.....PA does appear to have order behind it.....it's not random.......I'm down and dirty in the 1M & 5M & 15M.

I am seeing signifigence with every movement of every bar at every TF....once the road turns a certain way....things "have to" continue along in sequence.....with signposts aplenty along the way......weird science for sure! Yet.....so broad in nature that one person can be buying while one is selling at the same point and they both still make money....
  • #1,548
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:20pm Jan 10, 2008 2:20pm
Quoting sizzler
i wanted to share some thoughts right or wrong and soundboard

. I have been following ej and reverse engineering skunny's chart (s)and drawing fibs all morning here is the end result
Price goes up and down

based on charts I have seen and light testing... it is my current opinion that price moves in 132 cycles. A cycle is complete once a both 132's are touched. This leads me to test, that a valid cycle has to complete for price to move on so it follows a touch of 132 means then next 132 is next.


I have to chart this my self but look at skunnys charts... the break of the polar 132 signal a new cycle and old measurements are invalid.

It was bugging me why Skunny always had "what I thought" were completed cycles open on his charts. I never had a touched 132 on my charts after it was hit.

I THINK price moves along say a "sine wave comprised of mini sine waves..boxed in and completing many equidistant resistance zones that apparently happen to be the fib 132...

this tech we see one zone or measure it... and by virtue of know where one is the fib shows us the other. prices is contantly going "somewhere" and that somewhere is defined by the cycle until a smaller cycle takes it out of there.

Since this is not discretionary so you HAVE to be able measure the swings precisely (not guess) this is what will cause bad trades IMO.

I am working on this..

Skunny's ej chart had a zero I couldn't fib on that tf using fibs i was wayy off...
but on 5m I think? it was dead on I think you can have at least two sets of fibs rocking at once dynamically top to bottom and bottom to top if that makes sense.

I think this is what caused my frequent, fabulous fibbing failures and the following frustration from failing fantastically.


So to not confuse myself ,

I am just going to crack the 15m of the GY because... if this bears out.. that is all you need. maybe even just a 5/15m a 1m . If this is in anyway true I am going to laugh at myself a lot for over complicating things. then eat ice cream. I love ice cream. mmmmm

Anywho.. if my hypothesis is right...( since it is untested )we shoud hit 215.42 . right now the only thing I "know" is the next main target is the bigger bear tp. I am just going to watch it play out. but I would buy on spikes under 216

Sizz

hey sizz glad to see we are on same page on our lil experiment..... looks like 215.42 is approx the 50 fib on my lil daily looks like a great tp area....but maybe only the daily 38? lets see.... of course she may go 100 u never know....at least i dont .... but here is where i am at after the pentration today of the 0 .... i set a sell stop below that level (ON DEMO) casue when she comes back down in days weeks to come should be a smasharooney right through to AT least the 138 ext..... assuming i fibbed ok.... time will tell....maybe we start catchin on soon eh! keep them posts coming

PS I peed in my shorts laughing when i saw your chart said SNORT instead of short!
  • #1,549
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:22pm Jan 10, 2008 2:22pm
Quote
I am seeing signifigence with every movement of every bar at every TF....once the road turns a certain way....things "have to" continue along in sequence.....
'Nother Gold Nugget!
The Path of Least Resistance.

Quote
with signposts aplenty along the way
If you're looking for them .

Some people "drive" straight past their freeway exits.
Some don't see the road turning into a "1-way system" around the next corner, and get hit head-on by a truck delivering bull 'n bear manure.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #1,550
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:25pm Jan 10, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting 24HourTrader
Haven't been called a cake eater in awhile LOL!

So as long as it's not broken, it may still be useful. Interesting! So when you say you may take a cautious trade if you can follow with another fib, where would you start this new fib with which to "follow"? It doesn't look like you added a new fib from that first 138%, so where else could you fib from? Thanks a bunch!
I had more than 1 chart going. I delete fibs and use fibs for different reasons. Some I leave on a chart just for s/r not to specifically trade from. I guess cautiously isn't a good word as I always cautiously enter a trade.
Robonacci com
  • #1,551
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:27pm Jan 10, 2008 2:27pm
So far I think I could just follow price around indefinitely taking trades...swing fibs all over getting brain damage.

look at this chart she a beaut


Also Skunny, those Gann lines are awesome I am geeked. I love LINES. except at the dmv...there..I hate lines.

If I had to guess all accurate effective analysis is basically showing different parts of the same skeleton. or the same skeleton but describing it differently.

a rose by any other whatnot is a you know.

Sizz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,552
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:28pm Jan 10, 2008 2:28pm
Quoting RBing
That was a nice 51 pips for me. Now what will it do? lol
Yeah, I should have stuck it out, but I thought I could buy in at a better price....Good job!
Robonacci com
  • #1,553
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:38pm Jan 10, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting sizzler
So far I think I could just follow price around indefinitely taking trades...swing fibs all over getting brain damage.

look at this chart she a beaut


Also Skunny, those Gann lines are awesome I am geeked. I love LINES. except at the dmv...there..I hate lines.

If I had to guess all accurate effective analysis is basically showing different parts of the same skeleton. or the same skeleton but describing it differently.

a rose by any other whatnot is a you know.

Sizz
Hey Sizz,


After you fry your brain on all the possibilities these charts have to offer you will be ready to create your own masterpiece using only the trades that you know are perfect. You'll get there. (try not to over analyze)



I'm not sure reverse engineering will help, but I'm not sure
Robonacci com
  • #1,554
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:52pm Jan 10, 2008 2:52pm
I just looked and you dont have any stars by your thread, your gonna have to start making some trade calls er somethin to get your ratings up and maybe you can become a 1 star.I just wanted you to know cause I put you in a 5 star so the other votes must be less than 1's because it didnt register.
  • #1,555
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:57pm Jan 10, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting Bobokus
I just looked and you dont have any stars by your thread, your gonna have to start making some trade calls er somethin to get your ratings up and maybe you can become a 1 star.I just wanted you to know cause I put you in a 5 star so the other votes must be less than 1's because it didnt register.
Very funny.....very funny, Mr Bo. just because people don't find my thread worthy of a rating doesn't mean you have to pick on me.


Oh......btw did you get this picture I posted of ya?
Attached Image
Robonacci com
  • #1,556
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:02pm Jan 10, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting Skunny
Very funny.....very funny, Mr Bo. just because people don't find my thread worthy of a rating doesn't mean you have to pick on me.


Oh......btw did you get this picture I posted of ya?

umm, yea and so has the rest of the world too now
  • #1,557
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:02pm Jan 10, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting sizzler
So far I think I could just follow price around indefinitely taking trades...swing fibs all over getting brain damage.

look at this chart she a beaut


Also Skunny, those Gann lines are awesome I am geeked. I love LINES. except at the dmv...there..I hate lines.

If I had to guess all accurate effective analysis is basically showing different parts of the same skeleton. or the same skeleton but describing it differently.

a rose by any other whatnot is a you know.

Sizz
hey skunny just am amazed.... THANK YOU!...here is another update.... 38 fib to the pip WOW!


I ALSO LOVE LINES...... TD lines Gann lines...all good .....


my chart is getting more an more naked not sure how I can get a wedgie then if thats the case? he he
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #1,558
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:12pm Jan 10, 2008 3:12pm
Thanks to all of you who have contributed to this thread...esp. Skunny and Bobokus.

I was caught in the indicators vicious cycle until reading John W's and this thread and am truly grateful for the insight. Probably saved me 6 months on my learning curve.

I don't know how to trade successfully yet...but at least i know now that i do not need to know whether the market is going up or down to trade it.

Just if its going up, then to where?...and if down, then to where...?

Price action... I LOVE IT!

Charlie
  • #1,559
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:16pm Jan 10, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting Skunny
I was going to post this earlier when I was a younger man. I think I'll take profit seeing no one will help me
Hey Skunny, do you trade off the 15m charts often? I don't think I've see you post one like the EJ this morning. That chart was a thing of beauty by the way. Dead on hits of the 38 on both ends and then a sweet run north for all the marbles.

I've been meaning to ask about the green pinbars, is that color something you do manually?
PipHunter
  • #1,560
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:19pm Jan 10, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting Skunny
You'll get there. (try not to over analyze)
Did I hear someone call my name?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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