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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #59,741
  • Apr 7, 2016 1:48pm Apr 7, 2016 1:48pm
Quoting cbb
{quote} Went long as well. Think there is plenty of room to drop even more.
It wouldn't retrace until next week end i guess. 1st week of April was a big crash for UJ so it should retrace a bit in the month and continue downtrend and touch 105 till month end is what i feel. but anything can happen with this volatile pair. lets watch n see.
Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #59,742
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:24pm Apr 7, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting akash14
{quote} It wouldn't retrace until next week end i guess. 1st week of April was a big crash for UJ so it should retrace a bit in the month and continue downtrend and touch 105 till month end is what i feel. but anything can happen with this volatile pair. lets watch n see.
I think next stop could be support around 106.50 - the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from October 2011 lows to last June's highs.
  • #59,743
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:18pm Apr 7, 2016 4:18pm
updated EW projection on USDJPY. More downside eyed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #59,744
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:19pm Apr 7, 2016 5:19pm
Quoting asgcorp
updated EW projection on USDJPY. More downside eyed. {image}
​I agree, a pull back before further downward movement, eyes on 107.00 zone.
  • #59,745
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:20pm Apr 7, 2016 9:20pm
Any idea why the pair is getting so volatile nowadays ?
atheer1
  • #59,746
  • Edited 6:17am Apr 8, 2016 5:18am | Edited 6:17am
Did not managed to break the 50MA on 1h chart. Should go more down once Wall Street is open. Next break should be 108.58/50 (daily pivot/ psychological levels) and below that at 108 (multi-month lows).
  • #59,747
  • Apr 8, 2016 5:27am Apr 8, 2016 5:27am
Is a trip back to 107 a realistic shot before the weekend? I opened a short at 107.9 yesterday. Hurting me now.
  • #59,748
  • Apr 8, 2016 6:02am Apr 8, 2016 6:02am
Quoting dejcire13
Is a trip back to 107 a realistic shot before the weekend? I opened a short at 107.9 yesterday. Hurting me now.
First it needs to break 108.50 and then hopefully the rally will continue. It is possible. Lets wait for the New York market to open in an hour.
  • #59,749
  • Apr 8, 2016 6:52am Apr 8, 2016 6:52am
Quoting dejcire13
Is a trip back to 107 a realistic shot before the weekend? I opened a short at 107.9 yesterday. Hurting me now.
108.22 is a monthly support. If price breaks this it might fall bad or would stay above it for this week. But next target of 105.5 is still not ruled out. Sellers on yen pairs are still maintaining their positions.
Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #59,750
  • Apr 8, 2016 8:07am Apr 8, 2016 8:07am
still look a sell to me, Im going to hold my position until next week, and of course it all depends on the margin and pretty much everything around me.
will keep an eye on COT data too...
I still believe its going to touch 105.00 but might not be an easy road.
  • #59,751
  • Apr 8, 2016 8:30am Apr 8, 2016 8:30am
Quoting gnajra
still look a sell to me, Im going to hold my position until next week, and of course it all depends on the margin and pretty much everything around me. will keep an eye on COT data too... I still believe its going to touch 105.00 but might not be an easy road.
I agree. I will keep my position open as well. So far it did not manage to break MA50. Only touch it again.
  • #59,752
  • Apr 8, 2016 8:57am Apr 8, 2016 8:57am
UJ got a lot more room to fall, until retail cuts their longs to 50% at least, it's a short sell and hold game.
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  • #59,753
  • Apr 8, 2016 8:58am Apr 8, 2016 8:58am
Quoting gnajra
still look a sell to me, Im going to hold my position until next week, and of course it all depends on the margin and pretty much everything around me. will keep an eye on COT data too... I still believe its going to touch 105.00 but might not be an easy road.
It looks like a sell to me too, and I think it might even reach 103.80 - 103.00 next week. I don't think it will break below 107 this week though.
  • #59,754
  • Apr 8, 2016 9:21am Apr 8, 2016 9:21am
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  • #59,755
  • Apr 8, 2016 9:32am Apr 8, 2016 9:32am
Quoting asgcorp
{image}
looking at UJ monthly chart the above does make a lot of sense.
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  • #59,756
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:03am Apr 8, 2016 11:03am
Quoting dejcire13
Is a trip back to 107 a realistic shot before the weekend? I opened a short at 107.9 yesterday. Hurting me now.
Getting closer to your order.
  • #59,757
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:09am Apr 8, 2016 11:09am
Well I just hope the weekend gap won't hurt further come Monday's opener.
  • #59,758
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:25am Apr 8, 2016 11:25am
I would leave the stop loss higher in case of gaps ! I also added another lot to my sell position at 109.00
  • #59,759
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:14pm Apr 8, 2016 4:14pm
I just checked the cot report, and it looks promising,
would like to know everybody's opinion,
  • #59,760
  • Apr 8, 2016 5:34pm Apr 8, 2016 5:34pm
Looks like just a correction movement, downside movement continues. 108.00 still act as immediate support level.
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