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USD/JPY Discussion

seek to reload short now.
UJ 1H Chart Update:
Correction over?
[Hammer forming?]
Cheers, U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 150105 1H[2] USDJPY.png Size: 41 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
Quoting Idkurv
seek to reload short now.
Time to buy
Quoting x58
{quote} Time to buy
there is bullish harmonic pattern at 15M, yes it could be a buy.
but my view is still bearish, so seek to short when it gets higher.
Quoting Uturn2
UJ 1H Chart Update: Correction over? [Hammer forming?] Cheers, U2 {image}
better wait until H1 candle closes imho
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Nothing more than Economy worry world wide.. PS: Will weaken equally as fast then the move will happen and big
Thank you.
STING
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Thank you.

Let her figure herself out before jumping in of course.
2 scenarios can play out .

1st one is that wave 2 is incomplete in it's correction and is looking for a c wave down to 118.15 which is also weekly support 2 and 50% retracement of the 1st wave up. trend will hopefully resume up again after the correction.
chart attached.

2nd one being that 2nd wave correction is complete and this correction is a minor 2nd wave which is poised to touch weekly support 1 at 119.31 and is also a 76.4 retracement of minor wave 1 and then trend hopefully resumes up again. On H4 this point is also 89 sma.
chart attached.

Lets see which one plays out. In any case i am about 70+ pips in the red without a SL . Watching the movement every 30 minutes ... will have to put an SL before going to bed.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Uj scenario 1.JPG Size: 85 KB Click to Enlarge Name: UJ scenario 2.JPG Size: 91 KB
STING
Quoting stringfx
2 scenarios can play out . 1st one is that wave 2 is incomplete in it's correction and is looking for a c wave down to 118.15 which is also weekly support 2 and 50% retracement of the 1st wave up. trend will hopefully resume up again after the correction. chart attached. 2nd one being that 2nd wave correction is complete and this correction is a minor 2nd wave which is poised to touch weekly support 1 at 119.31 and is also a 76.4 retracement of minor wave 1 and then trend hopefully resumes up again. On H4 this point is also 89 sma. chart attached....
Where you based?

Are you gonna let yourself draw down until it reaches that point though?

I got stopped out at 119.95. Went short made some pips, then attempted to trade long on that percieved pinbar(h1) but stopped out again.

Now not trading it at all.

Looking at Oil dropping, EU and GU look like they need a bounce. So kind of hesitant to put in long on UJ at the minute. It breaks 118.85 and I will change my bias to short.
Quoting stringfx
2 scenarios can play out . 1st one is that wave 2 is incomplete in it's correction and is looking for a c wave down to 118.15 which is also weekly support 2 and 50% retracement of the 1st wave up. trend will hopefully resume up again after the correction. chart attached. 2nd one being that 2nd wave correction is complete and this correction is a minor 2nd wave which is poised to touch weekly support 1 at 119.31 and is also a 76.4 retracement of minor wave 1 and then trend hopefully resumes up again. On H4 this point is also 89 sma. chart attached....
Hello stringfx,
I hope you had a good holiday season.

What about this scenario (110.5), improbable?

Attached Image
Fail better.
Quoting Sunsilk
{quote} Where you based? Are you gonna let yourself draw down until it reaches that point though? I got stopped out at 119.95. Went short made some pips, then attempted to trade long on that percieved pinbar(h1) but stopped out again. Now not trading it at all. Looking at Oil dropping, EU and GU look like they need a bounce. So kind of hesitant to put in long on UJ at the minute. It breaks 118.85 and I will change my bias to short.
I am based in the middle-east. Heard of Dubai?

I usually trade the 4 hr and daily charts (only swing), so my SL is normally high, but if it breaks the current low, i will get out of this trade. SL is put now 3 pips below the current low. Yes, you r are right about oil. I thought 52.77 will seal it for sometime .. but now it's trading 200+pips below that target.

Let's see how it goes... good luck!
STING
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Hello stringfx, I hope you had a good holiday season. What about this scenario (110.5), improbable? {image}

everything is probable my dear. The market is vicious. It's out to bite every retailers bum. The index is overbought to the core but it keeps going higher. Now it's in a state that, it has to cover some more distance upward. (EW view)

Your chart could be the right one if the previous high is not taken out, so let's wait out and see which direction UJ is heading. If it breaks 115.54 which is the low, then UJ is heading into an abyss but my strong feeling is that we will see 127 before 115 (based on dollar strength).

Good luck on your trades.
STING
Looking at my chart I believe the 119.00 level looks like a very interesting level to long from for several reasons.................. first the bottom Bollinger band is around it and second the 200 MA and third the 119.00 level has had a lot of reactions to it in the past.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 59 KB
Quoting stringfx
{quote} I am based in the middle-east. Heard of Dubai? I usually trade the 4 hr and daily charts (only swing), so my SL is normally high, but if it breaks the current low, i will get out of this trade. SL is put now 3 pips below the current low. Yes, you r are right about oil. I thought 52.77 will seal it for sometime .. but now it's trading 200+pips below that target. Let's see how it goes... good luck!
I know Dubai never been though!

Cheers mate, Good luck with you as well!
US10y yields close to <2 and UJ is on steroids ?? someone's on the wrong foot..or the rules of the game are changed? maybe, BoJ stimulus distorted the markets but..there's to much divergence here. already in sell .
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
Quoting bikov
US10y yields close to <2 and UJ is on steroids ?? someone's on the wrong foot..or the rules of the game are changed? maybe, BoJ stimulus distorted the markets but..there's to much divergence here. already in sell .
Risk-off environment - if things turn around the yields likely to converge with UJ
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Risk-off environment - if things turn around the yields likely to converge with UJ
usually is said that the bonds are smart(er) money.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
Down
Quoting stringfx
2 scenarios can play out . 1st one is that wave 2 is incomplete in it's correction and is looking for a c wave down to 118.15 which is also weekly support 2 and 50% retracement of the 1st wave up. trend will hopefully resume up again after the correction. chart attached. 2nd one being that 2nd wave correction is complete and this correction is a minor 2nd wave which is poised to touch weekly support 1 at 119.31 and is also a 76.4 retracement of minor wave 1 and then trend hopefully resumes up again. On H4 this point is also 89 sma. chart attached....
Scenario 1 would be preferred but not looking like it.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes.

Look at what happened this time last year.
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