MW's trading journal

Ok, on the 4 hour chart that is going to be closing in about a minute or two for me has signs of support and resistance. We just have to wait for a close and then for price action to tell us if it will hold or break.

First, the Eur/Usd is moving down to test the second dynamic fib level- and so I will be looking for PA to show a reversal signal on the next bar or so.

The GBP/USD has moved down to the third level or support for the dynamic fibs and with that Ill be looking for an imminent reversal as well. If this doesnt happen, the trend may have changed.

Overall, it looks as though the trends have all changed on the 4 hour chart from up to down or down to up. No trades as of yet.

Ok, this isnt a trade based on my dynamic fib theory. Im jsut taking this because we are in a downtrend and it looks good. EUR/JPY short at 161.71. This closed as basically a gravestone doji. Looking for the first lot to make 20 pips, and then the second lot doesnt yet have a profit target.

My stop loss is at 162.10, which may get taken out on a retracement IF we get a retracement that high. This will also just give me another area to sell into once I see solid price action telling me to.

I forgot to mention in the first few posts, while explaining this method that I am using for this journal, that I only sell or buy once the "tunnel" of the 24 and 28 EMA crosses in that direction. For instance, right now the Eur/Jpy has a tunnel moving downwards. I would not, for any instance, buy at the moment. It is in a clear downtrend on the hourly and 4 hour charts. Never go against the trend- except for a few cases, which may get discussed at a later time.

We will have to wait for the Daily candle to close, but it looks like there may be a solid opportunity on the USD/JPY. The exact opportunity that I talked about at an earlier date. This pair is at the bottom of the channel and looks as though it could have a close above it, in which case we would want to buy. Like I said, you don't want to trade against the dominant trend, but there are some cases in which it pays off. I would be looking for a target of around 116.00 for the first, and maybe lower actually. It all depends on this days bar close.

The first trade on the EUR/Jpy closed at 161.51 for a gain of 20 pips, while the second is still running. It is currently down and I think it will end as a loss, however it hasn't hit the stoploss yet. As I said earlier, this was just a good setup for a fast return. Im going to start looking for setups on the 4 hour charts in a moment.

The seond Eur/Jpy trade closed at - 40 pips. As mentioned earlier, this may be another opportunity presenting itself. For the time being, I am going to concentrate on the USD/JPY. As i said earlier, this played back up into the channel and is now showing a great buying opportunity. Just waiting now for the daily close.

Ok, with the daily close less than 5 minutes away I am going to go long on the USD/JPY with 3 trades. The first take profit will be at 115.00, second at 115.50, third at 166.00. These are not final, if I see that price will move straight through my take profit levels I will let them ride out. I feel that we will see a reversal signal around the 166 area though. If not, this could ride all the way to 117.00 (wishful thinking, which doesnt pay off - the realization of turnarounds does.). Im still thinking of a solid stop loss area. Does anyone have nay different thoughts on this trade setup? It looks good to me because it ended as a pin in confluence with the upwards channel that I had drawn.

I bought in at 114.50.

On the USD/JPY, I am thinking that we will see a lower price before the hike on back upwards.

Although I got stuck with an overall loss on the Eur/Jpy trade I took earlier, I still think that we will see more downside to this. This is because we just faced resistance and could not move through. This also was just a retracement from the previous downwards move. I didn't think the retracement would last that long and move that high, however I would be willing to say that it is going to keep with its previous trend downwards now. I am going to wait for a clear pattern within price action before selling again.

Hi mike_w. Patience. I think we will see an upward bump on the chart before heading down. Or not. Will see. But long term I think EJ will go down especially if EU will go down. Check my analysis.

OK here is my take on usd/jpy remember that on below daily time frames at least, the trend is down... so going long is more risky... I also would caution, that after closing the gap, the pair may decide to go right back to the down trend...

On hourly charts, if you can get past the 62 ema, then you may have a shot at the 800 sma and the 200 ema which is at the targets you have said...

Also, the GBP/JPY gap still has not closed... perhaps we can get that done tonight... would be nice... and that might bode well for your targets... another pro for your ideas is that after two down days on the stock market, may likely be a green stock market day coming up which will likely be good for USD/JPY to go up...

On the other hand... as we all know... I know very little... !!!

Hey Tiki, thanks for the input! I do see what you mean and this trade should have been analyzed a bit more perhaps. That up bar could have just been the retrace and it got caught at the right time to make a pin on the daily. I think I will still ride it out though, as this is all just part of the learning process. On the other hand, on the hourly charts we could be moving back upwards. I could see this as a solid opportunity if it plays out correctly. So like I said, I do see potential in this trade, it just has to break through a little bit of resistance first. I think we may have picked up the force to do so when it got down to the low levels that it did earlier today.

Just a quick update on the USD/JPY trade before I head out to school. Right now, it's up by around 40 pips and I will be looking to see a little bit higher but then a stall. After the stall, I will know what to do with this trade.

Ok, I didnt ge back on to trading until this morning. All USD/JPY trades were stopped out at +1. Ill be looking on the 4 hour charts to see if anything catches my eye today.

We may be seeing another trade opportunity on the hourly charts. There is a downwards trendline formed, in convergence with the resistance creted by the tunnel. If price action gives the go ahead, I will be placing a short order in this area at the next hourly close. Ill be back in about a half hour to post a chart and to see if it is still looking to be a good trade.

Trade taken on the GBP/JPY at 234.01. This is a short order that I've created through the usage of a downwards trendline, price action, and the dynamic fib theory. The pair could not break the resistance that had been created by the 'tunnel' and the downwards trendline. It also closed as a bearish candle, and so I feel fairly confident about it.

I will post targets. etc. when I get back from lunch with a lovely lady.

Lovely ladies will screw up your trading man... !!! I gotta live with that problem all day everyday !!!

Here is weekly gbp/jpy and a good H & S... if this helps your thinking any...

And here is gbp/jpy monthly with very nice bearish divergence.... This will take a while to pan out... but over all... down ?? !!!!!!!!!!!