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MW's trading journal

I added to the position at 165.75. I knew it would retrace back to this area at least, so I put in the market order for it. The reason I knew this was because price faced resistance at the 165.90 level.
I dream, therefore I become.
I added a few more about a minute ago or so at 165.46. This is the last of the buyins for this trade as I keep sound money management principles and refuse to break them. I could see this trade turning out for the longer term as the weekly charts show that this was a retracement week and so next week should continue the climb upwards. Just my thoughts.
I dream, therefore I become.
Yikes, took profit on the 165.46 trade, but got stopped out on all the others. I took profit on it at 165.80 for a gain of 34 pips. The other ones stopped out at 165.20 for a loss of 30 pips and a loss of 55 pips. You have to take your winners with your losers, and this was humbling as I wasn't expecting it. I am not invincible, even though I thought I was. Now, back to making trades and money. I'll post as they come about, or I may take the day off as it is friday.
I dream, therefore I become.
Based on the dailies, I think we will see a reversal signal soon on the Eur/Jpy for the climb back up. I still am thinking bullish on this pair. We are at the bottom of the daily range now, so I think we will see that reversal on sunday or monday.
I dream, therefore I become.
I've decided that I am going to add another position to any of my trades and take profit on it fairly low to compensate for a loss if I were to take one. I mean that I will add another position and take profit anywhere from 20 to 40 pips as a precautionary measure, compared to looking for the larger gain on the other trades that have been taken. It seems that most of my trades will at least move this much in my direction before reversing if it would reverse. Either way, I think it will make me more profitable. Does anyone think of this as a bad idea, and if you do, could you explain as to why. Thanks.
I dream, therefore I become.
I'm not seeing anything worth trading now as all the big moves happened earlier in the day. I'll post over the weekend if I see any solid weekly trades.
I dream, therefore I become.
I think we are going to see a solid buying opportunity in the Eur/Usd. It moved down to the support and has moved back up away from it, creating a pin bar on the 4 hour charts. I will wait for the bar to close, and then take the trade if it closes as a pin.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • Post #88
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:40pm Nov 9, 2007 3:40pm | Edited 4:40pm
I've decided to place a buy order on the Eur/Usd. It is a bit premature, however, and I still think we will see more downwards momentum before continuing upwards again. If the daily candle closes at or around this level, then I think we could possibly see the 1.4620 area, before moving back upwards. I will be placing buys all the way down to this area. If it doesnt move down to this area then I am going to keep placing buys on the dips from now on as I think we will see 1.50. A little bit of crystal balling going on there but I have solid reasons to believe this.

I bought in at 1.4677. Didn't say that at first, I forgot.
I dream, therefore I become.
I agree we will most likely see 1.5000 sometime... but maybe a bigger correction first ?? What makes you say back only to 1.4600 ???

How about the weekly PB on USD/CAD...??? The drop on GBP/USD ???


Quoting mike w
I've decided to place a buy order on the Eur/Usd. It is a bit premature, however, and I still think we will see more downwards momentum before continuing upwards again. If the daily candle closes at or around this level, then I think we could possibly see the 1.4620 area, before moving back upwards. I will be placing buys all the way down to this area. If it doesnt move down to this area then I am going to keep placing buys on the dips from now on as I think we will see 1.50. A little bit of crystal balling going on there but I have solid reasons to believe this.
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Well the reason I am saying to 1.4600 again, and I doubt it will even get there, is that the buying pressure is too strong for a large pullback just yet. I do realize that we will most likely see a pin bar on the daily charts that is bearish, but it will be trading into support so I think we will see an immediate reversal move back upwards. The way that I have my fib levels plotted out is very short term, and I will post them in a second. This is the reason that I think we will see just that low of a level for this retracement.

As for the Usd/Cad pin on the weekly, if you look at the daily charts, that's just the retracement (in my eyes). I wouldn't buy in this downtrend. Yes, that could be a solid trade for around 75 pips from the level we are at right now (.9425). But you would be trading against the trend and into resistance the whole way up, and your stop loss would be huge compared to the reward. I'd rather wait for more movement downwards and then sell again.

Now the Pound has more room to roll with. This looks like it could become an excellent trade. A pin bar on the weekly charts and a bearish engulfing on the daily charts. I could see this moving up to 200 pips down to the 2.07 area. I'll post a chart for my reasoning with this as well.

So the verdict, I wouldn't take the Usd/Cad trade, but I am actually thinking of taking the Gbp/Usd trade- and I'm still long on the Euro. What do you think about this? Do you think it's justifiable to think that the Cable is going through a large retracement, enough so to take the trade with a good risk to reward ratio?
I dream, therefore I become.
According to my knowledge, the Euro loves the 38.2 fib level. This fib is around .XX20. I think we could see a little past his level actually, but not much. With that, I still feel confident that it is not going to make a huge retrace down to the 1.44 area. If it does break though, that would be where I would look to take profit if I would take a trade.
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I dream, therefore I become.
You can clearly see why I think the Pound will correct down to the 2.07 area on the daily chart, and I will make myself clear by the 4 hour chart. On the 4 hour chart, I think we will move to the second dynamic fib level before seeing a reversal to the upside again. By the time the pound moves down that far, it will have moved up to the 2.07 area, instead of being in the 2.06's.

These two are lining up perfectly for a solid profit target for a short, with price action telling us that the higher price was denied.
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I dream, therefore I become.
For the Eur/Usd trade that I am currently in, I am going to cose the trade as soon as I am in some type of profit. The reason is that I believe we will move upwards a little, but then we will move down south because of the pin bar on the daily charts. I will wait and get an entry at a better price, because it would be stupid to keep the entry at this higher price when I think that it will move lower. Instead, I will take profit for 10 pips or so and then wait for a reentry for a larger gain.
I dream, therefore I become.
I don't know.... I think you should give it a good think... GBP has already started down on a big weekly PB... Daily on EUR is not really a PB, but a doji... USD/CAD big weekly PB too... Dollar has gained some strength back... Maybe EUR coming down... But then... I could be wrong.... again..............

Quoting mike w
For the Eur/Usd trade that I am currently in, I am going to cose the trade as soon as I am in some type of profit. The reason is that I believe we will move upwards a little, but then we will move down south because of the pin bar on the daily charts. I will wait and get an entry at a better price, because it would be stupid to keep the entry at this higher price when I think that it will move lower. Instead, I will take profit for 10 pips or so and then wait for a reentry for a larger gain.
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Quoting Tiki Trader
I don't know.... I think you should give it a good think... GBP has already started down on a big weekly PB... Daily on EUR is not really a PB, but a doji... USD/CAD big weekly PB too... Dollar has gained some strength back... Maybe EUR coming down... But then... I could be wrong.... again..............
Yeah, you are right Tiki (well, to the best of my knowledge). I have been thinking about it since Friday now. I think your target of 1.44 could be easily seen now. If that's the case, then like I said I will wait for a reversal signal and buy in at the low. I don't really think the dollar is gaining much strength, I just think that we are in for a retracement. It's not the dollar gaining or anything else lowering, but the people in the market that is going to create this drop. Everyone is starting to want a lower price again, which is why I will go with that too. I'm just going to wait until I am in a small profit to close out my position. Thanks for the input Tiki!
I dream, therefore I become.
I agree with you on the Pound too, I think we will see at least a 200 pip downmove on it.
I dream, therefore I become.
I think I agree with everything you say here... it is all created... and now 'they' are thinking to bring USD a little stronger for a while... only a correction, yes... but lets make some pips on the correciton too...

Quoting mike w
Yeah, you are right Tiki (well, to the best of my knowledge). I have been thinking about it since Friday now. I think your target of 1.44 could be easily seen now. If that's the case, then like I said I will wait for a reversal signal and buy in at the low. I don't really think the dollar is gaining much strength, I just think that we are in for a retracement. It's not the dollar gaining or anything else lowering, but the people in the market that is going to create this drop. Everyone is starting to want a lower price again, which is why I will go with that too. I'm just going to wait until I am in a small profit to close out my position. Thanks for the input Tiki!
I hope you did not go ahead and buy EUR !!!
I already had the position in from last Friday. I just closed it for a loss of 15 pips. Oh well, I think we will get another great buying opportunity soon; within the next few days.
I dream, therefore I become.
Long GBP/JPY... anytime... sooner ther better... Target 231.30, stop, 224.50
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