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EURUSD High Frequency Trading

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  • First Post: Nov 19, 2012 8:07pm Nov 19, 2012 8:07pm
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
I want to start a thread for those of us that have a dream of scalping a currency pair at a reasonably priced broker profitably in an automated program.

Is this a possible question or an impossible dream? I think it is possible. I am close to getting this up and running but I think that
I will need some folks that can bring accurate technical indicators to the table to help with medium term trends.

What do I mean by high frequency, trades happen every 3-5 minutes and profitability targets are in the 0.7-1.5 pip range with stop losses on each
trade around 2 pips. For this to work we need accuracy north of 70%. Long term I am still a few tenths of a pip off using all in broker commissions.

The types of things that you need to take into account are:

i) A relatively fast feed and co-location near the "brokers cage" (Meaning where they send there rates from - I have found a way to get this done for < $50 a month - which really is a miracle)
ii) An understanding of how the broker marks up their trades and what they are adding to the spread
iii) Coding done in an efficent manner using multi threading and a relatively efficient language (C++ or C##)

You can see where I am at the moment below. I am looking for any ideas that when combined with a High Frequency Algorithm, I gain the edge I need. Some of the algorthms that I have built are pairs (covariance models) between markets (futures vs spot), skew algos (evaluating the book and one sideness over time), dynamic models (a combo of several models list) and mean reversion/trending models)

My plan is to distribute this auto pilot program once it is thoroughly tested. A portion of the proceeds will be paid out to those whose models are used. Realtime tracking will provide the necessary incentives.

What I need now are some really smart people who have viable models and would be willing to help this project off the ground.
The incentives are as described above.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353367085


  • Post #2
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  • Nov 20, 2012 12:10pm Nov 20, 2012 12:10pm
  •  markcout
  • | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
Pairs18 - How close are you to getting this done?

Quoting pairs18
Disliked
I want to start a thread for those of us that have a dream of scalping a currency pair at a reasonably priced broker profitably in an automated program.

Is this a possible question or an impossible dream? I think it is possible. I am close to getting this up and running but I think that
I will need some folks that can bring accurate technical indicators to the table to help with medium term trends.

What do I mean by high frequency, trades happen every 3-5 minutes and profitability targets are in the 0.7-1.5 pip range with stop losses on each...
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Nov 20, 2012 5:34pm Nov 20, 2012 5:34pm
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
I think what I am missing right now is a very good trending indicator that tells me where the pressure is during the scalping.
I would much rather "mine" small pips during a "trend", be it major or minor, than look for big wins.

Because with "big" wins, come potentially big "losses".

Nothing is free
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Nov 21, 2012 11:40am Nov 21, 2012 11:40am
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
I should also point out that you can easily set this to trade other pairs, especially if they are large markets and have active and deep limit order books. The reason I am starting with EURUSD is simply because it has the lowest cost of entry (spread) and depth of book.
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Nov 24, 2012 5:44pm Nov 24, 2012 5:44pm
  •  trend_master
  • | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
I have always had interest in programming a higher frequency model so that I can potentially reduce my volatility. Does anyone out there have a technical add on that could potentially help?
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Nov 24, 2012 9:16pm Nov 24, 2012 9:16pm
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
I have a thread on high frequency and I would like those with successful trading strategies to help me out.
I have already built a platform that attemps to scalp the EURUSD through several high frequency type strategies, including pairs correlation, skew analysis and others.

I am looking for an overlay strategy that will kick me over the profitability line.

I am close.

Please reply to my thread. Thanks

Thanks!
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Nov 24, 2012 9:25pm Nov 24, 2012 9:25pm
  •  aerotrade
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: only dead fish swim with the stream | 486 Posts
Quoting pairs18
Disliked
I think what I am missing right now is a very good trending indicator that tells me where the pressure is during the scalping.
I would much rather "mine" small pips during a "trend", be it major or minor, than look for big wins.

Because with "big" wins, come potentially big "losses".

Nothing is free
Ignored
i am not sure to understand very well your exact need indicator like OBV and its div or other indi that make the bridge between volume and price might help you to be in the right side of the market (tick volume reflect real volume with 90% accuracy in FX according to some studies ) - Comparing OBV and ROC can also be a good filter against fake move , the second solution is to exit the volume and time from the chart by using Tick chart / 21 ticks chart - 89 ticks work very well -unfortunatly will it will be complicated if you use MT4 i recommend software like multichart esignal or ninjatrader

Hope it will help , good Luck
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi ~ Thus passes the glory of the world
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Nov 24, 2012 11:00pm Nov 24, 2012 11:00pm
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
Thanks alot areotrade.

Those are new "terms" for me so I will look them up and give them a try.
Are there standard definitions on how to calculate those?
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Nov 25, 2012 12:37am Nov 25, 2012 12:37am
  •  Mtinifx
  • Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Member | 6,018 Posts
Quoting pairs18
Disliked
Thanks alot areotrade.

Those are new "terms" for me so I will look them up and give them a try.
Are there standard definitions on how to calculate those?
Ignored

Hi pairs18

Have you seen this: youtube.com/watch?v=6LQbT_MN2Pc


It's a great strategy - works well on low spread pairs.
 
 
  • Post #10
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  • Nov 25, 2012 4:33pm Nov 25, 2012 4:33pm
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
Looks very interesting jmtini. Thanks for the lead.
 
 
  • Post #11
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  • Nov 25, 2012 5:08pm Nov 25, 2012 5:08pm
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
I looked at OBV and it sort of reminds me of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) in a way. Where you are finding smart money.

I have a few things that trouble me about VSA, the most relevant is that VSA looks at bar data and by definition (since it is based on "bar" data), it smooths out information. It is the "tick" data granularity that I am using to decide whether we have predictive movement or not. My initial analysis is that inforamtion is lost when "tick" data is combined into "bar" data.
 
 
  • Post #12
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  • Nov 25, 2012 5:36pm Nov 25, 2012 5:36pm
  •  aerotrade
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: only dead fish swim with the stream | 486 Posts
Quoting pairs18
Disliked
I looked at OBV and it sort of reminds me of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) in a way. Where you are finding smart money.

I have a few things that trouble me about VSA, the most relevant is that VSA looks at bar data and by definition (since it is based on "bar" data), it smooths out information. It is the "tick" data granularity that I am using to decide whether we have predictive movement or not. My initial analysis is that inforamtion is lost when "tick" data is combined into "bar" data.
Ignored



it s good to include volume spread analysis to any trading system if you use bar representation. price bar give you what is happening while volume give you in what quantity OBV make the relation between volume and price ant that s why it s a good indicator to be compared with Rate of change indicator to identify market phase (if the both indi go togheter then you got an healthy trend if on contradict the other counter trend or retracement ...)

one other good indicator that can be interesting to improve entries is RSI applied on open 2 period if above 90 candle will close bearish or below 10 candle will close bullish provability is extremely high 85+%
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi ~ Thus passes the glory of the world
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Nov 26, 2012 7:10am Nov 26, 2012 7:10am
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
Thanks aerotrade.

Just so I understand, compare OBV with the rate of change of price? Do you know of any literature or description of the method to do this? I am sure someone has studied this. Love to see a few pictures if you happen to have some so I can get the idea.

Thanks again for your help. What I am in search of is a "macro overlay for my micro High Frequency Program." So in this context a "bar" discussion is not a bad idea I think. Definitely worth looking at
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Nov 27, 2012 1:49am Nov 27, 2012 1:49am
  •  sidhujag
  • Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Non-Member | 4,719 Posts
if you dont mind me asking what broker are you using and you arent using mt4 are you i hope not.

If your on an ecn thats dma then you shouldnt have any spread markup just commision. I see lmax fxopen ecn
or ic markets as pretty good
candidates for hft for a retailer. However lmax which offers 3ms times doesnt allow some predatory hft flow.

You are colocating to an isp close to the broker correct?

Well either way im in the field shoot me a pm and we can exchange ideas.
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:57am Nov 27, 2012 7:57am
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
Thanks Sidhujag. I will send over a PM so we can discuss.
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:28am Nov 28, 2012 3:28am
  •  Mtinifx
  • Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Member | 6,018 Posts
Quoting sidhujag
Disliked
if you dont mind me asking what broker are you using and you arent using mt4 are you i hope not.

If your on an ecn thats dma then you shouldnt have any spread markup just commision. I see lmax fxopen ecn
or ic markets as pretty good
candidates for hft for a retailer. However lmax which offers 3ms times doesnt allow some predatory hft flow.

You are colocating to an isp close to the broker correct?

Well either way im in the field shoot me a pm and we can exchange ideas.
Ignored
Hi sidhujag

I use IC markets. There are OK

What strategy are you guys using for scalping?
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:21am Nov 28, 2012 9:21am
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
Hi jmtini,

A relatively simple EMA Skew detection algorithm that is not working as well as it needs to.
Do you know of any other scalping methods using either pairs or limit order book that has any legs?


Thanks
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:46am Nov 29, 2012 8:46am
  •  Forex 101
  • | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
Is this a "swing for the fences" strategy? Those have scared me in the past.
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:44am Nov 29, 2012 9:44am
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
No this is the opposite of a "swing for the fences" strategy. The idea is to make lots of very small bets and have a reasonably high payout matrix.
Once you cross 65-70% your strategy will win. I am very close to that, just need a little push.
This thread was started to share ideas with others (which is happening).
I am open to sharing my program with those who have complentary strategies that can push me over the the profitable pnl threshold.
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:10pm Jan 11, 2013 12:10pm
  •  pairs18
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 61 Posts
Making significant progress here on Forex
It turns out that Triangular Arbitrage and Skew Vectors are a great match!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357924134
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: triangular_arbitrage_skew.jpg
Size: 250 KB
 
 
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