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GBP/JPY

Quoting pabloski
Of course! I'm not offended. But I don't like not constructive posts like this one: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post6228185
let it go pabloski.
market is the greatest teacher.
As Above, So Below
Quoting IndigoPingvi
No, no, I see myself mainly as a Price Action guy, but GBPJPY many times disregards PA. I do use EMAs as a dynamic pivots and general direction help, but I don't trade EMAs in the sense of the specific strategy. They represent maybe 20% vote at the decision making. I don't use 50 SMA, but since you mentioned it, it is in very close distance to the EMA that I do use on the weekly chart (about 40 pip below the 50 SMA monthly). Honestly I would prefer for a market to copy two red moves from several weeks ago and don't just go ballistic up.
======================================
What can you read from BOJ Governor Last Speech? Mon 26 Nov 2012 ???
What are your expectations of the Yen Value?
I believe that the decreasing values of other currencies will help the Yen to go up a little bit and thus we may witness entrancement to 128 for GBP/JPY ??? Eur/ JPY 103???? USD/JPY 80 ??????
Quoting gentlelove30
======================================
What can you read from BOJ Governor Last Speech? Mon 26 Nov 2012 ???
What are your expectations of the Yen Value?
I believe that the decreasing values of other currencies will help the Yen to go up a little bit and thus we may witness entrancement to 128 for GBP/JPY ??? Eur/ JPY 103???? USD/JPY 80 ??????
If I copy paste from Action forex:

"The minutes also revealed that 2 members Takehiro Sato and Takahide Kiuchi suggested changing the language of the minutes to 'the Bank will continue with this powerful easing until it judges that the 1 percent has been steadily maintained'. Yet, the idea was defeated by the majority vote and the wordings remained as 'the Bank will continue with this powerful easing until it judges the 1 percent goal to be in sight'."

What basically this means is that jap's f*** up the statement. If market fells through the channel there are good chances for the price to go for the test of the red trendline. Oups, while writing this it already crossed the channel on my chart, but other traders have the channel a few pips lower.
Very nice, 4 open positions +85, +64, +59 and +49
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Quoting KillerWhale
Very nice, 4 open positions +85, +64, +59 and +49
Congratulations! Where may I ask is your TP? I am running 2 positions with triple size lot each, at 50+ and 70+ pips. I am looking into 129.9 area currently but I would like to see how price behave...
101 pips in 6 hours Asia trade
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Quoting IndigoPingvi
Congratulations! Where may I ask is your TP? I am running 2 positions with triple size lot each, at 50+ and 70+ pips. I am looking into 129.9 area currently but I would like to see how price behave...
129.9 is doable
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Quoting KillerWhale
129.9 is doable

I've done many hours of analysis of this thing over the last day or ten, and I suspect I know where the channel top and bottom for GJ might be. And we have never visited either.

Without labouring the fact with boring details, we are in a very similar situation to the move where it held up ( to use a rugby term) at 133.5. We're again stuck between two major channel crossover lines (one from 163 and the other from 118.5)/centre line of the entire channel

To put it in plain speak, a move and hold above about 131.6~7 sends the bear view down the toilet and could bring back the old view that Guicci and I held of a long term expanding triangle, with a possible top up at about 146!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A break above would easily take it past 133.5, which, I suspect, would then hold no real significance.

A break below 129.65 sends it back down and means it lives in a bearish triangle which takes it to bottom sometime next year.

50/50. 131.6/129.65. Take your pick.
And one more post - directed to those who seem to firmly believe in the "fundamentals" story. Not too many years ago, the USDJPY traded at around 300. The Americans and few others beat up on them and forced them to revalue their currency, in what is known as the Plaza Accord. The yen rose in value at a time coinciding with a massive crash in Japanese property prices. Since then, the Japanese economy has been stuffed. Deflation set in, and the rest is history. We're talking early 1990's.

Every year since then, people have lost bucket loads of money assuming that Tokyo would finally get around the problems. The highly paid analysts have, very year, said "this is the year". Wrong wrong and wrong again.

Lately, these same dickhead analysts are again saying "this is the year". And the financial markets seem to "believe" that a new Japanese Govt will fix the problems. But what happens if Abe does not win?? And even if he does, he'll probably spend weeks working out a viable coalition. By then we're talking well into 2013.

The best review I recently read was by a Goldman Sachs fellow. Basically he said that "finally the Japanese sound like doing what we were all suggesting back in the early 1990's. Maybe it's time, he said, to bring the old team back out of retirement to work with them. Then he finished by saying that he didn't think the YEN would be going anywhere for some months.

By that time, the Yen pairs will probably have finished whatever it is that they "want" to do. Until then, TECHNICALS RULE, OK???

Of course, not that you will read this, nor understand it. Because, heck, as everyone knows, the YEN pairs only ever go up.
JFYI - Its making a Bullish Ascending Triangle on 1 HR Chart.. Prepare for a Bullish Ride soon on GBPJPY.

138++ is the target
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
Quoting aviz12
JFYI - Its making a Bullish Ascending Triangle on 1 HR Chart.. Prepare for a Bullish Ride soon on GBPJPY.

138++ is the target
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Quoting KillerWhale
200, and then some?
I agree pretty much with your analysis on this. I would only add that we could see a drop to the 129.72 regoin and then spring back up from there.



Quoting Mpt
I've done many hours of analysis of this thing over the last day or ten, and I suspect I know where the channel top and bottom for GJ might be. And we have never visited either.

Without labouring the fact with boring details, we are in a very similar situation to the move where it held up ( to use a rugby term) at 133.5. We're again stuck between two major channel crossover lines (one from 163 and the other from 118.5)/centre line of the entire channel

To put it in plain speak, a move and hold above about 131.6~7 sends the bear view down...
Quoting zephyru
I agree pretty much with your analysis on this. I would only add that we could see a drop to the 129.72 regoin and then spring back up from there.

Ah, yes, that's what I was alluding to. Should it get there, there is a very real chance that could be the bounce point. However, should it follow the path it's currently taking, it may stop just short of that level, build up a resistance line etc etc. It happens often.

Yes, it looks like a rising wedge, yes it even looks like part of an expanding triangle. And both patterns would terminate at 139 or above. Or it could just end up being the 3rd wave in a bearish triangle.

Lets see how long it takes to even get below 130.7
Quoting Mpt
Ah, yes, that's what I was alluding to. Should it get there, there is a very real chance that could be the bounce point. However, should it follow the path it's currently taking, it may stop just short of that level, build up a resistance line etc etc. It happens often.

Yes, it looks like a rising wedge, yes it even looks like part of an expanding triangle. And both patterns would terminate at 139 or above. Or it could just end up being the 3rd wave in a bearish triangle.

Lets see how long it takes to even get below 130.7...
Too long, I collected all short profits earlier and have a small long now
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Quoting KillerWhale
Too long, I collected all short profits earlier and have a small long now
Am always willing to be proved wrong, but should it go north, those are viable targets. However I haven't got a bullish bone in my body. With a little help from the cut and paste department, this is one version of my view going forward:

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  • Post #697
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  • Edited Nov 27, 2012 12:21am Nov 26, 2012 11:48pm | Edited Nov 27, 2012 12:21am
Price is definitely compressing, it wants to give appearance that it rejected 20 EMA with a Bullish Pin, but Price keeps closing below the Trendline channel. IT will burst heavy or it will just range for quite some time, but I expect at least another move down like it recently was on small time frame. I can't tell direction, but my bias is Bearish.

Edit: Well since it broke the Pin upward it might just go to the Trendline Highs of the recent Daily bars. If it brakes that ...
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Quoting KillerWhale
I do not mind the Laugh.
I am a trader, likewise yourself.
We are here in a professional field, so lets enjoy the profitable ride together
Thanks.
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
Quoting aviz12
I do not mind the Laugh.
I am a trader, likewise yourself.
We are here in a professional field, so lets enjoy the profitable ride together
Thanks.
Okay, but 1.38++ is just a bit too much for me.
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Quoting KillerWhale
Okay, but 1.38++ is just a bit too much for me.
I wonder what your view was 600 pips ago? My view was bullish and forex guru laughed at my view saying it is a comedy! If you have something constructive to say then present your view with analyses so we can all learn, but don't mock at traders because they have different view than you do! No one is 100% right all the time and no one knows everything.
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