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  • Post #641
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:34pm Nov 22, 2012 10:07pm | Edited 10:34pm
  •  Mpt
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 2,582 Posts
Quoting tashkent
Disliked
nice. i do not believe and do not use wave theory. it is very interesting, no question, but it is just one of the thousand theories around. trading waves does not make sense because it only tries to explain the force or psychology behind the moves which already happened. but you can not know exactly the next move. what wave it is going to be? maybe it was just retracement or bounce? you will know it after it happens. but before that you take a position. so you anticipate. you will hope that it will be that wave you are expecting. and...
Ignored

As are many, you are not entirely correct in your assumptions. Yes, wave theory is very much open to interpretation. It's very subjective. And when a possible wave is deemed to be identified there must always be an alternative. That's what most people do not do. They simply throw out an idea and presume it to be correct.

There is a "science" if I can use that term loosely around wave trading that DOES offer viable stop targets for waves, but yes, they may not be correct. However wave trading is one of few trading methods that can offer you a direction and POSSIBLE extension targets, and in so doing may offer you an "edge". The various major component legs of a wave usually have a fibonacci relationship to each other, but you still never know whether that will be a 1.6, 2.6. 3.6 etc multiple. Non-impulsive waves (retracements) have set rules or patterns (in general). For example, yesterday I suggested a stop on this part of the move at 132.3 or so. Purely on wave length proportions. After that, though, I also found it coincided with certain TLs and channel resistance. But the wave proportions were the first tool I used. And, yes, this move may yet continue after a reasonable move down, but we won't know for a while.

You still have to couple waves with all the other tools. Used on its own, it can be a total and complete waste of space. It's just another tool - after you've bothered to learn it properly - which (a) takes years and (b) is usually thrown around and used incorrectly by heaps of people on forums such as this (ie FF).

Anyway, I thought my anecdote pretty much reflected the general "theory" behind human psychology in markets. Hope you enjoyed it. Best wishes
 
 
  • Post #642
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  • Nov 22, 2012 10:44pm Nov 22, 2012 10:44pm
  •  tashkent
  • Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
Quoting Mpt
Disliked
As are many, you are not entirely correct in your assumptions. Yes, wave theory is very much open to interpretation. It's very subjective. And when a possible wave is deemed to be identified there must always be an alternative. That's what most people do not do. They simply throw out an idea and presume it to be correct.

There is a "science" if I can use that term loosely around wave trading that DOES offer viable stop targets for waves, but yes, they may not be correct. However wave trading is one of few trading methods that can offer...
Ignored
a sound post. i am not arguing if it is correct or wrong. as you have mentioned i was trying to say it it just one of those tools around which stimulates traders to take a position. yes it increases the probability of wining trade. so does pinbar, so does any other indicator. yet nothing is guaranteed. in market everything works you are good at. yet everything fails at some point. psychology side of the theory is definitely interesting and worth recalling time by time.
you may use waves, TLs, SR, candle formation and other things and try to find points coincide all. however trading, in my opinion has to be kept simple. too much analysis has more harm than benefit, no matter how hard you try market will not follow you. i think we are trying to say the same thing in different languages.
As Above, So Below
 
 
  • Post #643
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  • Nov 22, 2012 10:56pm Nov 22, 2012 10:56pm
  •  Mpt
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 2,582 Posts
Quoting tashkent
Disliked
a sound post. i am not arguing if it is correct or wrong. as you have mentioned i was trying to say it it just one of those tools around which stimulates traders to take a position. yes it increases the probability of wining trade. so does pinbar, so does any other indicator. yet nothing is guaranteed. in market everything works you are good at. yet everything fails at some point. psychology side of the theory is definitely interesting and worth recalling time by time.
you may use waves, TLs, SR, candle formation and other things and try to find...
Ignored
If there is one thing of which I am guilty ... that I do tend to over-analyse. But I guess I'm not alone in that regard.

Have a good day
 
 
  • Post #644
  • Quote
  • Nov 22, 2012 11:08pm Nov 22, 2012 11:08pm
  •  tashkent
  • Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
Quoting Mpt
Disliked
If there is one thing of which I am guilty ... that I do tend to over-analyse. But I guess I'm not alone in that regard.

Have a good day
Ignored
successful trades to you. now i have to look at my charts and try to recover from drowdown i eat recently
As Above, So Below
 
 
  • Post #645
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  • Edited 5:07am Nov 23, 2012 4:36am | Edited 5:07am
  •  IndigoPingvi
  • Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 604 Posts
Quoting Mpt;6223676[B
Disliked
]If there is one thing of which I am guilty ... that I do tend to over-analyse[/b]. But I guess I'm not alone in that regard.

Have a good day
Ignored
Excellent! So you are the right man to ask; it's a black Friday, i know we can expect volatility and choppy market, but when will spending results be published from this Friday? Today or some other day?

Edit:Found it, on Monday sales for Thanksgiving weekend are published.
 
 
  • Post #646
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  • Nov 23, 2012 9:47am Nov 23, 2012 9:47am
  •  IndigoPingvi
  • Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 604 Posts
I wonder if we'll not get a right shoulder on H&S formation on 4H chart...
 
 
  • Post #647
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:53am Nov 23, 2012 9:53am
  •  forex_J
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
Denied all 23 hrs of work in 1.5 hours. Cable going crazy
 
 
  • Post #648
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:03am Nov 23, 2012 10:03am
  •  Olu
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 5,605 Posts
Quoting forex_J
Disliked
Denied all 23 hrs of work in 1.5 hours. Cable going crazy
Ignored
I got nailed on this one I was expecting a retracement...

Olu
Find a trend and milk it for all it is worth. That's how to be profitable
 
 
  • Post #649
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:59am Nov 23, 2012 10:46am | Edited 10:59am
  •  Mpt
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 2,582 Posts
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Disliked
I wonder if we'll not get a right shoulder on H&S formation on 4H chart...
Ignored
I know what you're thinking. But we really won't know until we see price under about 129.2. There are two ways of looking at this pattern. One is that we'll fall back to eventually hit around 119 (possibly with a H&S break below neckline at about 125). The other one could take us over 135 after a bounce. Depends whether that "TL" holds or those peaks at 129.6 (or should we say Left shoulder??)provide support.

But that's for next week.
 
 
  • Post #650
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 11:22am Nov 23, 2012 11:22am
  •  forex_J
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
Cable going way too crazy today....WTF?
 
 
  • Post #651
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 11:27am Nov 23, 2012 11:27am
  •  IndigoPingvi
  • Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 604 Posts
Quoting Mpt
Disliked
I know what you're thinking. But we really won't know until we see price under about 129.2. There are two ways of looking at this pattern. One is that we'll fall back to eventually hit around 119 (possibly with a H&S break below neckline at about 125). The other one could take us over 135 after a bounce. Depends whether that "TL" holds or those peaks at 129.6 (or should we say Left shoulder??)provide support.

But that's for next week.
Ignored
I hear you! I have to say I am very disappointed about me today I mean I trade Emas. And instead of taking 50 pips cumulative profit, I took 150 pips loss... I was expecting price to cross 20 EMA on 4H chart, it was 41 bars ago since we touched it (that's a long time ago). I should have known that with such momentum price will probably find support. We got a Doji from it, then a Bullish pin (second touch and rejection from 20 EMA)/Inside bar, then brake of the inside bar and fly up. This was 101 PA f**k up!
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  • Post #652
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:01pm Nov 23, 2012 12:01pm
  •  tashkent
  • Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Disliked
I hear you! I have to say I am very disappointed about me today I mean I trade Emas. And instead of taking 50 pips cumulative profit, I took 150 pips loss... I was expecting price to cross 20 EMA on 4H chart, it was 41 bars ago since we touched it (that's a long time ago). I should have known that with such momentum price will probably find support. We got a Doji from it, then a Bullish pin (second touch and rejection from 20 EMA)/Inside bar, then brake of the inside bar and fly up. This was 101 PA f**k up!
Ignored
hi, did you cover your longs? i f you remember i advised you to keep some amount of your longs. all TFs are too bullish starting with monthly.
trying to scalp today took many losses. it is not for me. now i am back to my intraday trading.
i do not use crosses but interested in pinbars and dojis, but they seem dont work as a reversal in trending market. now i will use them only for confirmation end of bounce. for example trend is down and it bounces then forms pin bar, this is sign of continuation. now look at this pair and you see countless failed pins in all TFs.
As Above, So Below
 
 
  • Post #653
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:03pm Nov 23, 2012 12:03pm
  •  etabeta
  • | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 33 Posts
Is rocketing again.... directly to 133,50 Big boys are working even on Friday!
 
 
  • Post #654
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:08pm Nov 23, 2012 12:08pm
  •  forex_J
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
All major USD pair going crazy except U/J... Ultimately, lifting all Yen pairs up as well. WTF?
 
 
  • Post #655
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:58pm Nov 23, 2012 12:58pm
  •  etabeta
  • | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 33 Posts
Quoting forex_J
Disliked
All major USD pair going crazy except U/J... Ultimately, lifting all Yen pairs up as well. WTF?
Ignored
BOJ + elections = long for next weeks
 
 
  • Post #656
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 1:56pm Nov 23, 2012 1:56pm
  •  tashkent
  • Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
looking back to charts, these blue boxes were the first signs to jump into. how far will it go? absolutely no clue, maybe 133.xx
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As Above, So Below
 
 
  • Post #657
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 7:40pm Nov 23, 2012 7:40pm
  •  etabeta
  • | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 33 Posts
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Disliked
And you recomend how many pips to be trailed behind?
Ignored
I don't use a fixed number of pips, but I move the SL few pips (double or triple the spread) under max/min
A fixed number means nothing.

Quoting IndigoPingvi
Disliked
Fundamental view started 8 trading days ago. It is slowly running out of importance I think.
Ignored
The fundamental view is increasing importance and it will be very important for next months (as several analist said)
So there will be panic selling of YEN and no important retracement (forget 129.0 for months)

Quoting IndigoPingvi
Disliked
For months you say? Don't you think this is over optimistic? And do you understand that Volume in MT4 is not an actual volume, but more like volatility indicator and is even different from broker to broker?
Ignored
Not only in MT4 but in the forex (I don't use MT4). Is not equal to the volume but is better than nothing and clearly show what's happening on huge movement.

Quoting IndigoPingvi
Disliked
Actually the way I see it, short position at 127 should have never been taken. Actually the last time short was in the game was whether 125 area or Trendline at 129 area. Now I am looking to short in 133-135 area depending the PA.
Ignored
I'm not looking to short:too dangerous.
 
 
  • Post #658
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:58pm Nov 23, 2012 9:22pm | Edited 10:58pm
  •  Mpt
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 2,582 Posts
It's probably in this consolidation top for a few days. Until it gets a boost north. Or the support below it runs out.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT But I suspect a likely double top on this move, or a move possibly extending to 132.4 ~132.6
 
 
  • Post #659
  • Quote
  • Nov 24, 2012 3:06am Nov 24, 2012 3:06am
  •  gentlelove30
  • | Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Member | 22 Posts
Dear friends...What are your expectations for the Yen (JPY) next week 26 November to 1 December 2012 ? Any ideas are appreciated
 
 
  • Post #660
  • Quote
  • Nov 24, 2012 4:26am Nov 24, 2012 4:26am
  •  Mpt
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 2,582 Posts
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Disliked
I hear you! I have to say I am very disappointed about me today I mean I trade Emas. And instead of taking 50 pips cumulative profit, I took 150 pips loss... I was expecting price to cross 20 EMA on 4H chart, it was 41 bars ago since we touched it (that's a long time ago). I should have known that with such momentum price will probably find support. We got a Doji from it, then a Bullish pin (second touch and rejection from 20 EMA)/Inside bar, then brake of the inside bar and fly up. This was 101 PA f**k up!
Ignored
You're an ema only kind of guy. Have you noticed your big happy friendly 50 SMA monthly inbound? It so much wants to be friends and join the action. It's come a LONG way since way back at 213.5.
 
 
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