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Attachments: Where is the EDGE in trading? The most important thing in trading!
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Where is the EDGE in trading? The most important thing in trading!

Quoting Mr Breakout

Now look again at this 1 min chart and tell me if it is any different than the 1h, the 4h, the daily, the weekly or the monthly chart.
Hold on Mr Breakout, let me write this profound idea down before I forget: "if we have never seen the difference in something before then there is no difference, period".

Marvelous! Simply brilliant! Why didn't I think of this before?
Quoting newyear498
Hold on Mr Breakout, let me write this profound idea down before I forget: "if we have never seen the difference in something before then there is no difference, period".

Marvelous! Simply brilliant! Why didn't I think of this before?
Are you guys both making money? then if so what are we arguing about?
Time hides Nothing
Quoting CindyXXXX
Are you guys both making money? then if so what are we arguing about?
Why some people think that it is impossible to make money on the lower time frames (1, 5, 10, 15 min) is really beyond my comprehension.

It is as stupid as saying that the Law of gravity only works on large objects, not the small ones.

Anyway, I am done with this thread.
Quoting Mr Breakout
Why some people think that it is impossible to make money on the lower time frames (1, 5, 10, 15 min) is really beyond my comprehension.

It is as stupid as saying that the Law of gravity only works on large objects, not the small ones.

Anyway, I am done with this thread.
I think it is certainly possible to make money on lower time frames,

why do you care what other people think?

Talking about the edge to trading.. caring what other people think is likely a signature trait of the losing traders. "I think the eur/usd is going to go up.."

looking for facts would be different however.. but anyways this goes back to what I was saying.. you seem to be looking for confirmation bias rather than the facts.
Quoting Mr Breakout
Why some people think that it is impossible to make money on the lower time frames (1, 5, 10, 15 min) is really beyond my comprehension.
Like newyear498 said, there hasnt been a single EA making constant profit (at least 1 year+) on 1 min time frame charts. I have seen it in my life either. Not only that, i havent met a trader that did. Only exception could be fap-turbo but im not sure if it was trading on 1 min and if it did last for 1 year.

Quote
It is as stupid as saying that the Law of gravity only works on large objects, not the small ones.
Effects of gravity on very very small objects are negligible. Just like effect of daily volatility are negliglibe on large time frames.

Simple question...Why would large time frames (which are determined only by the fundamentals) be acting the same as small times frames which are determined by so many different factors and barely by fundamentals?
Quoting Mr Breakout
Why some people think that it is impossible to make money on the lower time frames (1, 5, 10, 15 min) is really beyond my comprehension.

It is as stupid as saying that the Law of gravity only works on large objects, not the small ones.

Anyway, I am done with this thread.
I like your thinking
ok, let's prove this once and for all with a little experiment. quick, someone tell me if the chart below is a 1m chart or a daily chart?

http://cf.ydcdn.net/1.0.0.2/images/i...ck%20chart.jpg

so is it a 1m chart or a daily? it's pretty obvious which one!

clearly the answer is................ THE CAST OF TV's BLOSSOM!!!! yay woooooo

http://mediamikes.com/wp-content/upl...07/blossom.jpg

from this little test it's clear that you can't tell the difference between a 1m chart and any others. durrrr durrrrrr durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. fin.

it's also clear that you can't tell when it's lunch time by looking at a clock. you can't tell if there are clouds in the sky by looking out your window. and you can't tell if you are smart or not by asking the muppet in the mirror.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
Quoting makingpips
I only take a position in my preferred market if 47 to 67 pips on offer on the first move (so I tend to go for 57 pips with a limit in place to take profits automatically).........beyond that the next move should deliver 67 to 100 pips (or more) and again I would aim for probably 87 pips on a limit order. I do not use leverage. I do not monitor my positions I just let the market do its thing after entry based on what PA has indicated.
Just out of curiosity, why would you not use leverage if you consistantly make those type trades?
Quoting reres
Lets say that we solve all the problems with traders psyhology and money managment. Lets say money managment is perfect and the trader is trading like a robot. Knowing that trading is just a probability game and not having problems accepting losses.

Than to make a profit he still needs to have an edge. Just like casino has an edge and it doesnt care if someone wins a jackpot once in a while.

So where excatly is an edge in trading??

1) Technical analysis doesnt work! All indicators are lagging and produce random results due to the fact that...
did you know that 2.5 out of 10 people make quaterly profits? for all who don't know see this http://forexmagnates.com/us-forex-br...t-for-q2-2011/. now first wrong thing is that you're asking about 1 edge as if all the profitable traders trade the same. second thing is this : getting to a good college and university, getting to a good job has even smaller odds of success than this line of work. if i were you i would be very ashamed that i did not find something that works in the market because so many others did. in the us there are 100000 accounts . that means that 25000 are in quaterly profit and that's a lot of people and a lot of trading ideas. for you and for others that did not make it i recommend the following book: elder alexander - come into my trading room.
Quoting nubcake
ok, let's prove this once and for all with a little experiment. quick, someone tell me if the chart below is a 1m chart or a daily chart?

http://cf.ydcdn.net/1.0.0.2/images/i...ck%20chart.jpg

so is it a 1m chart or a daily? it's pretty obvious which one!

clearly the answer is................ THE CAST OF TV's BLOSSOM!!!! yay woooooo

http://mediamikes.com/wp-content/upl...07/blossom.jpg

from this little test it's clear that you can't tell the difference between a 1m chart and any others. durrrr...

MR. NUBCAKE,

have you taken any physics class?

what do you think determine the sample size of data that is considered statistically significant given the experiment that you are performing?

let me make it clearer: if i am trying to determine the terminal velocity of a projectile, say, a v2 rocket that is moving from Peenemunde to london, do you think it makes more sense to look for a microsecond of data(1 millionth of a second which adds up to 1 second) or to look for 1 million seconds of data(which adds up to 11 days of data)?
i mean, they are both a million worth of data point, correct?

11 days of data will be more useful than a millionth of seconds adding up to 1 second.

ARE you familiar with time series analysis? stochastic processes?

YOU CANT PUT UP A CHART AND THEN ASK: tell me if this is 1millionth of a second put together or millions of a second put together. and then turn around and say: aha! gotcha!
Just because people cannot visually tell them apart, therefore, people shouldnt bother trying to predict and neutralizes a v2 rocket? Thinking that way shows that you've confused qualitative with quantitative. There is a qualitative difference between millionth of a second and millions of seconds. Just because they are quantitatively the same unit(million & million) doesnt mean they are necessarily qualitatively the same thing. The fact that you know what time frames your data points are coming from is part of the analytical process. You cant blind me to the time frames and then turn around and say : gotcha!
It makes no sense at all. Imagine doing that in a simple physics class where you are trying to determine the acceleration of an object!

ALso, IN physics and chemistry and engineering. we do a LOT OF CURVE FITTING. lOTS OF THEM. curve fitting is not necessarily a bad thing, until you abuse them: you need to know how much to curve fit or not.

my two cents.
Quoting dddd
MR. NUBCAKE,

have you taken any physics class?

what do you think determine the sample size of data that is considered statistically significant given the experiment that you are performing?

let me make it clearer: if i am trying to determine the terminal velocity of a projectile, say, a v2 rocket that is moving from Peenemunde to london, do you think it makes more sense to look for a microsecond of data(1 millionth of a second which adds up to 1 second) or to look for 1 million seconds of data(which adds up to 11 days of data)?
i mean,...
i like turtles.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
Quoting makingpips
Y
You can trade one market and make a great living...

Some people cannot accept what the markets do or they are so gripped by fear or greed they can only stick in a trade for a few minutes before bailing out. If you know your market then you will have a reasonable idea how far it will travel before a change in direction. It is not rocket science.

The edge is with the trader,
Most everything else is just BS.
I'm going to agree with everything makingpips has said. And yes it's possible to make money trading. And if you're making money, and focusing on a trading plan... all of the senseless arguments over absolutely nothing just causes others to shake their heads in disbelief at the lack of any actual effort.

Have fun.
Quoting nubcake
i like turtles.
well cooked, tastes delicious.

http://madaerah.org/images/turtle_2.jpg
Quoting moneymaker2
Just out of curiosity, why would you not use leverage if you consistantly make those type trades?
It took me around two years to get to the point where I could rely on my consitency or should I say the consistency of my preferred market in terms of what it offers and when.........plus I have no desire to watch the market once I am in trade. So I am very comfortable with my preferred approach and trade with reasonably high stakes. The upshot is I make a great living BUT I am not driven by the prospect of more and more money, not everyone is. Using leverage could upset my very well oiled machine !!!
Trading for me is about being comfortable, feeling comfortable with what I risk, being content with the reward then rinse and repeat.

If what you do delivers what you want then why change it.

makingpips
Quoting Mr Breakout
Why some people think that it is impossible to make money on the lower time frames (1, 5, 10, 15 min) is really beyond my comprehension.

It is as stupid as saying that the Law of gravity only works on large objects, not the small ones.

Anyway, I am done with this thread.
Visually as far as i am concerned there is no difference between the look of a 5 min chart and a weekly chart.Where the differrence shows itself,from a TA or PA point of view is the risk taken to enter the market on the different timeframes.
What i look for ultimately is to find a low risk entry on a 5 min chart,and try to manoeuvre my trailing stop into a position at the start of a weekly trend,or just under a H/L of a weekly uptrend,or just over a L/H of a weekly downtrend.Taking daily profits of daily moves is imperative
I only look at candlesticks and horizontal lines nowadays(less for my very small brain to think about!).
WTF? Way too many people on these forums are desperate to prove that they're smarter than others. His point was quite simple to understand, but I guess you're too smart for that.


Quoting dddd
MR. NUBCAKE,

have you taken any physics class?

what do you think determine the sample size of data that is considered statistically significant given the experiment that you are performing?

let me make it clearer: if i am trying to determine the terminal velocity of a projectile, say, a v2 rocket that is moving from Peenemunde to london, do you think it makes more sense to look for a microsecond of data(1 millionth of a second which adds up to 1 second) or to look for 1 million seconds of data(which adds up to 11 days of data)?
i mean,...
Quoting DemoForever
Visually as far as i am concerned there is no difference between the look of a 5 min chart and a weekly chart.Where the differrence shows itself,from a TA or PA point of view is the risk taken to enter the market on the different timeframes.
What i look for ultimately is to find a low risk entry on a 5 min chart,and try to manoeuvre my trailing stop into a position at the start of a weekly trend,or just under a H/L of a weekly uptrend,or just over a L/H of a weekly downtrend.Taking daily profits of daily moves is imperative
I only look at candlesticks...
Price is price regardless of the timeframe and yet so many folks set their whole strategy around a certain TF........you can make money on any timeframe of your choosing BUT the higher the better as far as I am concerned. You get a better view of the market from higher timeframes.
But whatever floats your boat. Markets do not operate on TFs they are unaware of time.

makingpips
Quoting reres
Lets say that we solve all the problems with traders psyhology and money managment. Lets say money managment is perfect and the trader is trading like a robot. Knowing that trading is just a probability game and not having problems accepting losses.

Than to make a profit he still needs to have an edge. Just like casino has an edge and it doesnt care if someone wins a jackpot once in a while.

So where excatly is an edge in trading??

1) Technical analysis doesnt work! All indicators are lagging and produce random results due to the fact that...
Okay so for 1, technical analysis works fine for me. Buts its like a hammer, if you use it right its great, if you use it to try and cut wood, its not so good.

You may like this: http://www.amazon.com/Heretics-Finan.../dp/1576603164

for 2, price is not normally distributed (not 50/50) so whatever observations of price action we draw, we cannot call it random.

if you want to use price action, look for patterns price makes when it reaches certain levels, when its about to make big moves etc.

I know ur thinking, 'but when price was rising I saw a tonne of hanging men candles, then it rose!' . Yes, its not perfect. But it helps. its an extra clue.

for 3) I'd suggest you read Larry Williams, then get a strategy tester and just try out some of his ideas for yourself. Find out really whether it works or not.
Quoting makingpips
Markets do not operate on TFs they are unaware of time.

makingpips
I must agree with nubcake here. The lower the time-frame, the more you get into the sessions issue. London session: high volatility and setting direction, new york generally retracing and asian session either retracing or high volatility depending on the pair.

Markets are very aware of time of the day. You wouldn't expect a fund which has a position of billions of dollars to exit that position at the end of the new york session, when there is no liquidity. It would exit it during london session and preferably on the london open.
Quoting scottyfromau
Okay so for 1, technical analysis works fine for me. Buts its like a hammer, if you use it right its great, if you use it to try and cut wood, its not so good.

You may like this: http://www.amazon.com/Heretics-Finan.../dp/1576603164

for 2, price is not normally distributed (not 50/50) so whatever observations of price action we draw, we cannot call it random.

if you want to use price action, look for patterns price makes when it reaches certain levels, when its about to make big moves etc....
What evidence do you have that the markets are not normally distributed (not 50/50)

if you have any research I'd be interested to see it
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