Interesting day to test a new approach today.
I suppose the thing we don't know about how Endroute trades this is whether he will just take every touch regardless so long as it's a one candle retrace or whether he use more discretion than that, looking at pivots, S+R, RN's and price action.
These two charts are from 5.00am ish GMT to 3.00pm ish GMT. They include some price action trades around the MAs and some touch trades off the 5+10. Black = winner, white = loser.
The pound obviously had a rocky day and fell a long way in a big and pretty even trend. The thing about trends of this nature is that once you are past the ADR for the pair, you find yourself thinking "it must be over by now". trading this way though, I just think you've got to take every touch and accept that the losses will come, especially as the trend ends on you. Don't worry too much about ADR, maybe just keep it mind and don't try to chase after too much if it's over it.
EJ was a very different animal. It ranged tightly until NY and then broke out in a volatile sorta way. Even so, keep taking the touches and they paid dividends. You obviously need these mas roughly lined up but I think when it's breaking out of a tight range, you have to accept that they won't always be totally parallel. You will notice that some of the trades with a ring around are in the middle of the candle. Obviously, some touches are at the right point but then price goes against you for a period before either taking your stop or coming back around into profit so the touch ends up in the middle of the candle.
All in all, I make it 4 good price action setups at the mas but these are far more subjective.
8 sound touch trades
3 failed trades
About 70% success rate if you'd taken all those trades but a lot less if you weren't happy with the price action setups. That said, if you are letting those winners run, you would still be fine at 50%.
The other thing to note is although that sounds like a fair few trades, you wouldn't catch them all and some would overlap others if you are letting your winners run - unless you are brave enough to add to your position.
Hope this helps, i will do some more later in the week.
I suppose the thing we don't know about how Endroute trades this is whether he will just take every touch regardless so long as it's a one candle retrace or whether he use more discretion than that, looking at pivots, S+R, RN's and price action.
These two charts are from 5.00am ish GMT to 3.00pm ish GMT. They include some price action trades around the MAs and some touch trades off the 5+10. Black = winner, white = loser.
The pound obviously had a rocky day and fell a long way in a big and pretty even trend. The thing about trends of this nature is that once you are past the ADR for the pair, you find yourself thinking "it must be over by now". trading this way though, I just think you've got to take every touch and accept that the losses will come, especially as the trend ends on you. Don't worry too much about ADR, maybe just keep it mind and don't try to chase after too much if it's over it.
EJ was a very different animal. It ranged tightly until NY and then broke out in a volatile sorta way. Even so, keep taking the touches and they paid dividends. You obviously need these mas roughly lined up but I think when it's breaking out of a tight range, you have to accept that they won't always be totally parallel. You will notice that some of the trades with a ring around are in the middle of the candle. Obviously, some touches are at the right point but then price goes against you for a period before either taking your stop or coming back around into profit so the touch ends up in the middle of the candle.
All in all, I make it 4 good price action setups at the mas but these are far more subjective.
8 sound touch trades
3 failed trades
About 70% success rate if you'd taken all those trades but a lot less if you weren't happy with the price action setups. That said, if you are letting those winners run, you would still be fine at 50%.
The other thing to note is although that sounds like a fair few trades, you wouldn't catch them all and some would overlap others if you are letting your winners run - unless you are brave enough to add to your position.
Hope this helps, i will do some more later in the week.