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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #9,201
  • Sep 12, 2016 8:32am Sep 12, 2016 8:32am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Reading your book now
it requires a follow up one... i have refined my trading style since then greatly...
  • #9,202
  • Sep 12, 2016 8:34am Sep 12, 2016 8:34am
Quoting Igrok
{quote}it requires a follow up one... i have refined my trading style since then greatly...
Thank you, good to know, but do you agree with me that it is a good start to understand your point of view or have changed totally the approach?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #9,203
  • Sep 12, 2016 8:38am Sep 12, 2016 8:38am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Thank you, good to know, but do you agree with me that it is a good start to understand your point of view or have changed totally the approach?
nothing has changed... everything is still in working order... just got a lot more to share...
  • #9,204
  • Sep 12, 2016 8:47am Sep 12, 2016 8:47am
look how swissy got trapped in the narrow angle... the outburst is gonna be fast and furious... and before the end of the year... most likely us election related...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly CHF A0-FX.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #9,205
  • Sep 12, 2016 10:44pm Sep 12, 2016 10:44pm
Quoting Igrok
look how swissy got trapped in the narrow angle... the outburst is gonna be fast and furious... and before the end of the year... most likely us election related... {image}
Do you expect a break on the upside or downsize? Targets? Why?
  • #9,206
  • Sep 13, 2016 12:10am Sep 13, 2016 12:10am
Quoting marcb
{quote} Do you expect a break on the upside or downsize? Targets? Why?
from my perspective the probability is bigger for the move to be usd negative... though my reasons might look weak because they are not quite conventional...
1. so far current yearly range is way below average... just about half the size of its normal... likely to be extended within the remaining period...
2. MMY is down...
3. market has an absolute memory and never forgets or disregards anything... swissy made its freakish move on that well remembered SNB actions to as low as 0.74 and then covered the upper side of that incredible spike... therefore it might want to revisit the lows on a more conventional and sustainable basis...
4. the whole eur/usd trend from 1.40 to 1.05 looks to me like one huge unpaid debt... from my perspective it should be fully covered no matter what... and perhaps in just one huge short-term spike similar to that we have seen of the swissy though likely still with a way slower speed...
5. the risk of the upcoming us election is obviously on the usd negative possible scenario... it seems that out of over 300 million of the us people we somehow now came to the point where we have to chose between two presidential candidates: one of which is apparently barely alive and another one is passionately hated by the establishment... anything might happen under those circumstances... huge political risks has to be taken into consideration this year as never before...
  • #9,207
  • Sep 13, 2016 12:50am Sep 13, 2016 12:50am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} from my perspective the probability is bigger for the move to be usd negative... though my reasons might look weak because they are not quite conventional... 1. so far current yearly range is way below average... just about half the size of its normal... likely to be extended within the remaining period... 2. MMY is down... 3. market has an absolute memory and never forgets or disregards anything... swissy made its freakish move on that well remembered SNB actions to as low as 0.74 and then covered the upper side of that incredible spike......
I understand what you mean about the risk of US elections. This is clear. So it is expected that CHF or JPY will be beneficiaries of the situation against USD. But I also expect the Fed to be the only sensible bank to start raising rates soon which would logically be positive for the USD. So I expect USD to strengthen against Euro and GBP, while losing again the risk aversion currencies. So in my mind USD Index might move a little but there will be huge shift in the balance of USD internally.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #9,208
  • Edited 1:19am Sep 13, 2016 1:06am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I understand what you mean about the risk of US elections. This is clear. So it is expected that CHF or JPY will be beneficiaries of the situation against USD. But I also expect the Fed to be the only sensible bank to start raising rates soon which would logically be positive for the USD. So I expect USD to strengthen against Euro and GBP, while losing again the risk aversion currencies. So in my mind USD Index might move a little but there will be huge shift in the balance of USD internally.
i never take any financial reasons into consideration... therefore don't put lots of faith into any fundamental analysis or expectations of this sort... though political risks is a different story... they happen quite fast but more predictable as events usually unfold over some longer period of time and visible with a naked eye... now we also can add to the political equation the fact that we seems to be losing the war on Syria and Ukraine to Russia... if we cant somehow force Russia to become one of our vassals like all the other European countries are then we might find ourselves either in some sort of an armed conflict with them or to lose political credibility among our European minions... so, the danger of a serious war is also there and growing every day... this is why swissy might also be considered as a potential safe heaven..
  • #9,209
  • Sep 13, 2016 2:01am Sep 13, 2016 2:01am
a couple of examples regarding the market's absolute memory... and about the importance of gaps in forex...
first example is about eur/usd... in Feb-April 2003 the market was forming a continuation diamond shown here on the daily chart... on Friday, March 21 the market closed at 1.0519 and then opened next week with 2 pips gap and went up leaving the gap uncovered... so, it took 12 years to come back and fill it on March, 11, 2015... still the current low of the corrective down trend on the eur/usd is in that area at 1.0459... so, the market was quite accurate about remembering the gap and filling it up after 12 years of trading above it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1Daily EUR A0-FX.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #9,210
  • Sep 13, 2016 5:43am Sep 13, 2016 5:43am
Good morning Igrok
I read your book is very good.
can you show the chart patterns of which the says that repeat
.

tnx
  • #9,211
  • Sep 13, 2016 6:24am Sep 13, 2016 6:24am
Quoting mtl
Good morning Igrok I read your book is very good. can you show the chart patterns of which the says that repeat . tnx
today's usd/jpy pattern - standard 18.4 template...
  • #9,212
  • Sep 13, 2016 6:37am Sep 13, 2016 6:37am
[Quote = Igrok; 9136428] {} dzisiejszy cytat USD / JPY wzór - średnia 18,4 skórkę ... [/ quote]


I do not really understand
As for the figure of 18.4 from the book and if so, at what intervals?
Thank you for your answer
  • #9,213
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:18am Sep 13, 2016 7:18am
Quoting mtl
[Quote = Igrok; 9136428] {} dzisiejszy cytat USD / JPY wzr - średnia 18,4 skrkę ... [/ quote] I do not really understand As for the figure of 18.4 from the book and if so, at what intervals? Thank you for your answer

I can see that it is a USD/JPY 18.4 today to the upside but I dont understand why I should take this one when all the YD/W/M move are down, why take a 18.4 for the upside and where?
  • #9,214
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:38am Sep 13, 2016 7:38am
Quoting mymission
{quote} I can see that it is a USD/JPY 18.4 today to the upside but I dont understand why I should take this one when all the YD/W/M move are down, why take a 18.4 for the upside and where?
cause there is a gap on top of current week's range... all jpy crosses have it except for EJ
  • #9,215
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:43am Sep 13, 2016 7:43am
Quoting mtl
[Quote = Igrok; 9136428] {} dzisiejszy cytat USD / JPY wzr - średnia 18,4 skrkę ... [/ quote] I do not really understand As for the figure of 18.4 from the book and if so, at what intervals? Thank you for your answer
intraday...
  • #9,216
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:53am Sep 13, 2016 7:53am
Quoting mymission
{quote} I can see that it is a USD/JPY 18.4 today to the upside but I dont understand why I should take this one when all the YD/W/M move are down, why take a 18.4 for the upside and where?
you also have to chose your time frame... if you want to trade it intraday then 18.4 was good as a buy for usd/jpy today... if you want to trade it inramonth then you have to wait till about 103.20-40 to short it there with stops at either 104.32 or a bit lower at 103.82 because that was the top of the last diagonal in the small reversal diamond...
  • #9,217
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:54am Sep 13, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} cause there is a gap on top of current week's range... all jpy crosses have it except for EJ

Wasnt that filled on monday (in my chart)? Maybe we have to wait for 12 years?
  • #9,218
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:59am Sep 13, 2016 7:59am
Quoting mymission
{quote} Wasnt that filled on monday (in my chart)? Maybe we have to wait for 12 years?
like I said you trade on the template and not on the gap... gap is just a bonus in this case... though you have to chose your time frame in advance and also your risk tolerance... i usually risk with 1/3 of an average daily range for intraday positions while targeting for 2/3 of it...
  • #9,219
  • Sep 13, 2016 10:49am Sep 13, 2016 10:49am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} like I said you trade on the template and not on the gap... gap is just a bonus in this case... though you have to chose your time frame in advance and also your risk tolerance... i usually risk with 1/3 of an average daily range for intraday positions while targeting for 2/3 of it...
Yes, make a lot of sense!

Great 18.4 call on usdjpy, just reached ADR.

I know its been asked before, but what chart tool do you use?
  • #9,220
  • Sep 13, 2016 11:40am Sep 13, 2016 11:40am
[Quote = Igrok; 9136661] {} intraday cytat ... [/ quote]


Thank you for your answer
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