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  • Post #21
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:49pm Feb 20, 2010 6:28pm | Edited at 6:49pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Self Control and Patience are a Prerequisite
(Training exercise)

It's been several months, my account isn't looking good. I have taken the time to make some self-assessment after trading. One of the behavior I have is an impulsive finger. Click, click, click... going against my trading plan, well not going against it but clicking the mouse way early before my entry signal.

There is a lack of focus. I have found that each time I entered early before my trade, I was feeling greedy. I felt that I can catch a big move, I felt excited and a rush. I also felt that I was missing out on a great opportunity to make some profits.

This is out of control, I need to control this urge. I need to stay composed and in control. I need to develop self control and patience.



========================
Explanation:
Self control and patience are a prerequisite in trading. As with life (not just in trading), impulsive decisions, impulsive actions or impulsive behaviors usually lead to problems.

As much as you would like to tell yourself to be patient and be in control, it wouldn't help very much in changing the behavior. Mark Douglas (trading in the zone) suggests that you try to catch yourself during those moments when you lose control/being impatient and try to get some control at that moment. This is one way of changing the behavior, but it is not the efficient way. This is not getting to the root of the problem. Trying to get some control during those moments would be to late. Most often, the moment you realize that you f***ed up, everything has already been done.

You see, you have got to come to the battlefield prepared. If this happens, this is what you do... when that happens, then this is what you do next. You shouldn't go into battle, not knowing what to expect, then meet the circumstance and say, "What do I do now!?". You should be prepared and know what you are doing, way before you enter the battlefield.

Can you imagine a surgeon not prepared in the operating room (battlefield). He takes a scalpel, cuts the patient open and then says, "What do I do now!?" So why would you go into trading not prepared?


Training Exercise:
During my developing years, I set aside training days (not demo-ing days). To train myself in self control and patience, I set a trading day (Friday) as one of my training day. Not weekends, but during live trading hours.

Friday was a day of no trading. I would simply sit and watch the market moved for 6 hours. I watched the market moved up and down, made lovely breakouts, skyrocketed to new heights and plummeted to extreme lows. I watched myself as I went into an emotional roller-coaster ride; the greed, the rush, the disappointments, the confused and all the mixed emotions you can ever have in trading.

I did this for 2 years (every week), slowly seeing the results the effect it had on me. I still perform and continue this exercise once every month (last trading day of the month).

Valuable lesson:

You will develop self control and patience. It does this by molding your mind into a belief that everything is fine, that everything is OK, that everything is safe when you miss a trade/don't trade. It molds your mind into a stronger belief that opportunities are abundant. When you hold such perception (everything is safe, abundant opportunities), your behavior will act accordingly; self control and patience.


Training exercise: Whether you are a scalper, short, medium or long term trader, set a day of the week (during trading days) to watch the market intensely. No Trading during this training. The beauty of it is that you don't even have to take any notes (if you don't want to). You don't have to analyze the charts. Just sit there and watch it. Just be aware of the emotions and feelings that are running through you.

IMPORTANT: Even if you see the best setup occur, the biggest move happening... it is STRICTLY NO TRADING. Just sit and watch, nothing else.

This is a very important exercise. This is the fastest way I know how to instill self control and patience.


I can hear most are whinging/sulking already. It is like a person who wants to become a doctor, but says he doesn't want to deal with piss, shit and vomit. If you don't want to deal with it, you are best to be in another Profession. These are the roads you must take to become a Professional trader. I have more than 10,000 hours of looking at live charts, and that's the difference between you and me. One drawback of medium-long term traders are that they don't get enough live screen time.

Mold the mind, don't mold the behavior. The way to mold the mind is to train it. Training, training, training, ... You must be prepared long before you enter the battlefield.
It is OK to miss a trade... But it is NOT OK to miss a trade because of laziness.
 
7
  • Post #22
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:26pm Feb 27, 2010 7:26pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Forex: The Greatest Brain teaser

I've always love brain teasers, I guess that's the reason why I've been hooked on trying to crack Forex. Of all these years I've been searching for the secret, the holy grail. I guess, I could say that I have found what I have been searching for. I should have known from the beginning, that the answer to any brain teasers are quite mundane and very simple.



========================
Explanation:
Here is an example of a brain teaser:
"A basket contain 5 apples. Do you know how to divide them among 5 kids so that each kid has an apple, but 1 apple must remain in the basket.
(Each kid must have an apple, not half or quarter of an apple, but a whole apple. You cannot cut the apple. The answer is at the end of this post.)"


Forex is the greatest brain teaser. It will have you believe that you have the answer, then at a blink of an eye, it will prove you wrong mercilessly. It will have you believe in pattern formations, just like looking at clouds and seeing an elephant shape, telling you to buy/sell now.

It will prove you wrong again and again. And every time it proves you wrong, you go and try a more complex approach, thinking that the puzzle is complicated. And that is what Forex or any good brain teasers do: it makes you look the other way when the answers are right in front of you. It fools you deceptively; the illusion of delusion. You are deluded into thinking the opposite. Heck, it is one of the greatest illusion/magic show on earth.

But what do magic tricks and brain teasers have in common? The answer is that they have a very simple solution. Do you remember when you solved a brain teaser or a magic trick? You were like, "oh DUH!!!(so simple, why didn't I think of that)"

Here is the simple answer to Forex: Trade with the trend and Money management. By following these 2 points alone, you don't require a so-called edge (system/edge). Trading with the trend possess' great edge (most people don't see that). Add money management with trading the trend... you then have an great system.

(Answer to brain teaser: Give 4 kids an apple each. The 5th kid gets an apple in a basket. All 5 kids have an apple each.)
 
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  • Post #23
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:49pm Mar 1, 2010 9:49pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Socrates' Wisdom: Secret to Success

Attached Image


A young man asked Socrates the secret of success. Socrates told the young man to meet him near the river the next morning.

They met the next morning.

Socrates asked the young man to walk with him towards the river.

When the water got up to their neck, Socrates took the young man by surprise and ducked him into the water.

The man struggled to get out but Socrates was strong and kept him there until he started turning blue.

The young man struggled hard and finally managed to get out and the first thing he did was gasp and took a deep breath.

Socrates asked. "What did you want the most when you were under water?" The man replied, "Air".

Socrates said, "That's the secret to success. When you want success as badly as you wanted air, you will get it."

"There is no other secret."
 
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  • Post #24
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:31am Mar 5, 2010 4:01am | Edited at 4:31am
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Stop Predicting the Market

"We will merely chart our course and steer our ship in the direction of the prevailing wind. When the economic weather changes, we will change our course with it and WILL NOT try to forecast the future time or place at which the wind will change."
~ William Dunnigan



========================
Explanation:
This is one major turning point in my trading, a crucial point.

I don't try to predict the market. I don't have an opinion about the market. I don't do any analysis of trying to figure out turning point/swing/fib levels. I trade the GBP/USD. I don't have a single clue where it will be in an hour/day/week from now. And I prefer to keep it that way. Ironic as it may sound, I became profitable when I stopped predicting the market.

There is only one thing which is very important to me whenever I trade. And the first and only thing I ask myself, "Is it an uptrend or a downtrend?". Once I figure this out, I simply wait for my entry signals.

How much will the market move and where will it go? These are irrelevant points. What's important, the Crucial Point: is that you are sailing along in the direction of the prevailing wind. The market will go where it wants to go, not where your opinion think it will go. Stop Predicting the market.
 
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  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:07am Mar 7, 2010 4:07am
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Wrong Combination of Indicators

I've been stacking indicators one over the other in search for a better confirmation. I was fooled because the standard setting of these indicators were different, so in turn they look different when compared together. But when I changed the settings, they closely gave the same signals. The conclusion is that there is not much of a difference between them.



========================
Explanation:
Certain combination of indicators will produce the same results. You need to understand how to use an indicator and how they work.

Instead of using 4 different indicators, you can actually just use 1 indicator and have 4 different values. The result would be the same and identical against 4 different indicators. Combining the wrong indicators are very detrimental to your trading.

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  • Post #26
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:31am Mar 7, 2010 7:13am | Edited at 7:31am
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Converting Multi-Time Frame trading into one Time Frame

I find trading multi-time frame very useful. I wonder if it can simplify this approach? I feel that looking at all of these time frames plus the other indicators (used for entries and exits) are overloading my senses.

Talk about information overload, focusing on a task requires a lot of energy when you have all these information to take in. I want to simplify this approach.



========================
Explanation:
I only use one time frame (actually 2) - 1 minute and tick. The tick is for my pin-point precise entry and exit, but I can trade without my tick chart and using only 1min chart. I don't use any other time frame.

You can actually read a lot of information from a 1 minute chart. It is the same with any time frame (5min, 15min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, etc...). You don't need other time frames. You just have to learn how to read it and it's actually quite simple.

A 1-minute chart actually paints a clearer and detailed picture of the market than any other time frame. It is just a matter of looking back at the history. You can view the day's/hours high, low, support and resistance precisely.

Let's take a 1 minute chart... If you scroll back up until you get 1440 candlestick, you are actually looking at a daily. Scroll back 7200 candlestick and you are looking at a weekly chart. Scroll back 240 and you are looking at a 4hour chart.

You can actually use these numbers (as a moving average) to gauge whether the market is in an uptrend or a downtrend within the day, the 4hrly, the hourly, the 15 mins etc... all in the 1 minute chart. It gives a whole new meaning of using moving averages in this way; not as an indicator to buy or sell, but a language to define and give meaning to the structure of the market.

Heck, I think it's about time you use a moving average correctly! Whoever taught you to use moving averages as an indicator to buy or sell!?... Right, the marketer who doesn't even trade for a living!

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If you want to convert multi-time frame into one time frame... you have to use your ENTRY time frame or the smallest time frame you use. Example: If you use 5min, 15min, 1hr and daily... all you need is the 5 min chart. You can get rid of the other time frame because you can read them from the 5 min chart alone. Why complicate things when they can be as simple!?
 
3
  • Post #27
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:36pm Mar 8, 2010 8:29pm | Edited at 8:36pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Converting Multi-TF trading into one TF (round 2)

I wonder if I can simplify this approach without using moving averages?



========================
Explanation:
You can use horizontal lines instead of moving averages. I find the horizontal lines less distracting to my eyes.

 

  1. First, open your entry time frame or the smallest time frame you use.
  2. Second, choose the other higher time frame you want to use (in this example we will use Daily, 4hourly, 1hour and 15mins).
  3. Third, you will draw horizontal lines to represent each time frame (in this example 4 lines for the 4 different time frame).


You must plot the each line according to its time frames opening.
What is the daily opening price? what is the 4hourly opening price? what is the 1hour opening price, and lastly what is the 15mins opening price.

You must change the line after each of its cycle.
Change
the daily line after 24hours. Change the 4hourly line after 4 hours, the 1hour after an hour and the 15min line every 15 mins.

Here is the simple rule: Anything above any line represents an uptrend according to that line (time frame). Anything below any line represents a downtrend according to that line (time frame).

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You can convert 4 (and infinite number of TF) different Multi-screen Time frame into 1 single screen time frame with 4 lines representing each different time frame. Anything above the line is an uptrend, anything below the line is a downtrend.


A chartless Professional Trader would ask the price at time (x), the price in the last 4hours, the price in the last hour, the price in the last 15mins and then the current price... Once he knows these information he will simply go with the direction of the prevailing wind.
 
11
  • Post #28
  • Quote
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:42pm Mar 15, 2010 1:42pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
I Have Not Failed


Attached Image


"I have not failed.
I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."

~ Thomas Edison

 
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  • Post #29
  • Quote
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:08pm Mar 19, 2010 7:08pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Show Some Discipline in Your Life

My work station must remain clean at all times.



========================
Explanation:
Discipline is part of trading, whether you can admit it or not. Some people have more discipline than others. And those that has more usually feel it is not a major issue in trading (psychology) because they can perform it effortlessly and/or unconsciously.

Discipline is part of trading. Thus, if you lack discipline, you must try to exercise it more often. Most people who are disciplined traders are disciplined in their life (apart from trading). Some are health conscious of what they eat, others exercise regularly, some are neat and clean.

How can you be disciplined in trading when you cannot even enforce discipline in your own life? Part of being successful in any field is drawing success from other areas of your life experiences. If you are not clean and tidy, don't look after your health or don't even exercise... Where are you going to emulate discipline from?

Do you know why the defense force is strict on being clean, neat and tidy? It is definitely not for them to look good in front of their enemies. Also, being neat will definitely not going to stop an oncoming bullet.

It is all about being disciplined.

For goodness sake... Show some discipline in your life! When you do that, you will find it easier to harness the energy of being disciplined when you trade.
 
3
  • Post #30
  • Quote
  • Mar 23, 2010 11:03am Mar 23, 2010 11:03am
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
You Don't Know How to Trade

It's the end of the week and my account is negative. 5 days in a row and everyday has been a negative return. I'm reflecting on my week's daily trades at the moment.

As much I'd like to make excuses of why the trades didn't go well, I've come to the end of the line. It's quite a shock, but I need to be brutally honest with myself. Despite of all my reasons/excuses... The bottom line is... I simply don't know how to trade.


========================
Explanation:
Have you watched the search for the American Idol? Simon Cowell was the brutally honest judge. He would simply bluntly tell people that they don't know how to sing. It was brutally honest, but did you see the reaction of the people? They were in shock and they couldn't accept the truth.

If you want to be successful in this field, you need to be honest with yourself. If you don't realize the problem, how can you solve and fix it? Before personal growth can occur, first you must realize that a problem exist.

Let me be brutally honest with you for a moment:
"F*** all of your excuses. You don't have a working system. You are not disciplined. You don't see the edge with following the trend. You don't see the simplicity of a pullback. You don't know how to manage your trading money. A blown account or an account that doesn't grow only says one thing; you simply don't know how to trade."

The Majors daily range average from 100 to 250 points... Give me one good reason WHY you are unable to take 10 points from it everyday?

I'm not advocating you to take only 10 points a day. I would advice you to take as much as you can. If your excuse to me is that it isn't possible to successfully take 10 points everyday, I would simply tell you that you don't know how to trade.

If Simon Cowell told you, "You don't know how to trade." How would you react? Would you reject it or would you take it as a positive awakening for your development?

Drop your guards/defenses for a moment and carefully think about it; The Majors move 100-250 points daily... and you're telling yourself 10 points consistently everyday isn't possible! I'd suggest you think twice and be brutally honest with yourself.
 
4
  • Post #31
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:18pm Mar 24, 2010 5:24am | Edited at 7:18pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
The Fallacy of Predicting the Market

I've been trying to test certain classic formations and how often they occur. Trying to get an estimate of percentages of the probabilities.

In conclusion, when you focus on a certain formation you will tend to see that formation again and again. Kind of like when I speed read. I filter all other information, but target only the information I require. But when you focus on the consistency of it occurring at a specific time and place, it does not happen... consistency breaks down.

This explains why hindsight sees all these perfect formations. But to predict it to occur at a specific point in time is inconsistent. A typical movement from low to high then a retracement can form various formations. It can become a wedge, or a double top or the classic abcd formation, etc... in fact it can grow into various patterns.



========================
Explanation:

When you plant an apple seed, it will grow into an apple tree. It will never grow into an orange tree.

This does not apply to chart formations. In fact, it can grow into various formations and not into a specific formation. In hindsight, the formation is done and created. That's why you can distinguish it as a triangle, head and shoulders, abcd, triple top/bottoms, etc. But whilst it is in formation, it can form into any type of formation.

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This is the deeper level nature of chart formations, 1 + 1 does not equal 2. The nature of charts is 1 + 1 = can be 2, or 3, or 4, or 5 etc. I guess that's why it's hard to comprehend, or grasp its nature by face value alone. Its true nature is somewhat illogical.

If it was as simple as 1+1= 2, then everyone would be rich You need to realize it doesn't work that way.
 
3
  • Post #32
  • Quote
  • Mar 27, 2010 2:49pm Mar 27, 2010 2:49pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Put Your System to the REAL Test

I was talking to my old man today and he gave me an idea. We were talking about how he would do diagnostic test on cars (part of his job). He was talking about how they would test the car and its mechanical parts to the extreme.

They would run tests at -50 degrees celsius right up to 50 degrees celsius. They would run the engines for a whole month, non-stop (24hrs) at high revolutions. They would test the mechanical parts to the extreme measures.

I just realized, I should also test my system to the extreme measures.



=======================
Explanation:
You might be aware that you should be testing your system. In my beginning years of my trading and system development, I would test my system. Most often I would get some good results, enough to have confidence to trade it live.

As you would know, hopefully by now, there will come a time and the system would just produce lots of negative result. Enough for you to conclude that the market changed, or the system broke down, or for whatever reason that may fancy your belief.

Later on, here is what I have come to understand; my system was never put to the real test in the beginning. I ran some back-testing, but that was not enough.

You need to put your system to the REAL test. Test it to the extreme measures:

 

  1. Can your system handle up to 30 consecutive losses?
  2. How does it handle in a high volatile conditions
  3. How does it handle in consolidating conditions
  4. How does it keep you away from fake signal, sudden spikes, sudden change or increase of momentum
  5. Where does your system breaks down
  6. What are your system's weakness and limitation
  7. How does your system manage its weaknesses so that it doesn't take a pounding.

I don't just pull up a chart and back test it. I look for the ugliest consolidations, the ugliest volatility, the extreme and unimaginable looking charts to test my system.

I'll even go as far as drawing a hypothetical graph (combining consolidating, ranging, trending and volatility, all in one) and test my system against it. At one point, I got my 6year old cousin to draw zig-zags and I would test my system on it.

Stop wasting your time on testing it on normal conditions. Put it to the real test. Test it against the extreme and unimaginable conditions. It will save you time and you may discover better ways on how to tweak it effectively and efficiently. By doing so, you'll get to know your system intimately.

 
2
  • Post #33
  • Quote
  • Mar 29, 2010 11:49pm Mar 29, 2010 11:49pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
The Impossible Dream

Title: The Impossible Dream
From: Man of La Mancha (1972)
Music by: Mitch Leigh
Lyrics by: Joe Darion

The Impossible Dream

To dream the impossible dream
To fight the unbeatable foe
To bear with unbearable sorrow
To run where the brave dare not go

To right the unrightable wrong
To love pure and chaste from afar
To try when your arms are too weary
To reach the unreachable star

This is my quest
To follow that star
No matter how hopeless
No matter how far

To fight for the right
Without question or pause
To be willing to march into hell
For a heavenly cause

And I know if I'll only be true
To this glorious quest
That my heart will lie peaceful and calm
When I'm laid to my rest

And the world will be better for this
That one man scorned and covered with scars
Still strove with his last ounce of courage
To reach the unreachable star


Luther Vandross (rendition) - The impossible dream (www.youtube.com/watch?v=AijRBQf-ato)
 
1
  • Post #34
  • Quote
  • Apr 3, 2010 1:49am Apr 3, 2010 1:49am
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Lower Time Frame vs. Higher Time Frame

I don't know what the fuss is all about lower vs higher time frame. People say higher time frame are more stable and lower time frames are unstable.
.....
After 2 years of studying time frames I can conclude that there are no differences between lower and higher time frames. The only difference is that lower time frames move very, very fast.



========================
Explanation:
The fundamental nature of lower time frames and Higher time frames are the same. It has retracements, lower lows/lower highs, higher highs/higher lows, consolidations, trending, ranging, etc.

As with life, you will never understand anything past which you cannot comprehend. Traders who doesn't see or understand this concept has limited knowledge about the issue.

Consciously, this seems illogical, because a lot of things can happen in an hour, yet your subconscious belief tells you that formations occur in days, not in minutes. To understand lower time frames you must eliminate your concept about time.

Get this very clear: Lower time frames move very fast. Classic formations occur at lower time frame and it happens very quick. Traders who complain that it is erratic and noisy on lower time frames are still working on the assumption of higher time frames.

Their expectation of a head and shoulder will occur in days and would also last in several days. Whilst on lower time frames, a head and shoulder can occur in minutes and would also last only in minutes. Meaning, you need to get out in minutes. They fail at getting out quickly because their subconscious is telling them to stay longer while the chart is saying that it is already over. Thus, they conclude that lower time frames produce heap of false signals, too noisy and very erratic. The reality is that they failed to see and understand the bigger issue.

Lower time frames require a lot of concentration and it is not for everyone. But, to dismiss the notion that there are no difference between the two will have an effect to your trading. Why?... because even if you are trading higher time frames you will still have to go to lower time frames for your entry (unless you are willing to place a really big stop). And when you have a subjective belief that there is a difference, your performance will be affected. It is like a kid having a phobia that clowns are cannibals.
 
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  • Post #35
  • Quote
  • Apr 3, 2010 7:59am Apr 3, 2010 7:59am
  •  supremeChaos
  • Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Quoting CrucialPoint
Disliked

"What the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve."
Napoleon Hill

Ignored
Quoting CrucialPoint
Disliked
Goku has been one of my inspirations...

"Gohan, it must come from a need... not from materialistic desires."
~ Goku

Ignored
Goku
I havent read all, but seems like a good read
Appreciate it, Sir
 
1
  • Post #36
  • Quote
  • Apr 4, 2010 7:38pm Apr 4, 2010 7:38pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
When Will a Big Move Occur?

I'm looking at charts all week and something caught my attention. From hindsight I can see all these big move that happened. If I can only capture these big moves...

I wonder if there are any clusters during these events? Well it's a new research and study I can investigate. Knowing this would definitely increase my edge.



========================
Explanation:
There are clusters that would cause a big move:

 

  1. Trading sessions
  2. News release
  3. No apparent reasons

Trading sessions: Asian, North American and European sessions. Trading sessions has a big impact to your balance. Know the different sessions and what currency to trade during those session.

Before, during and after news release are floods of orders which will move the market. You don't need to understand the fundamental news release, just know what time they are to be released so you can be prepared.

The gap between a mediocre trader and a Professional is that the Professional knows the third point (No apparent reasons).

The market will move for no apparent reasons (well, there are reasons, but not according to news release). It will move according to its average daily range whether there are no news to be released. It will move simply because trades occur during non-news.

The magic question: When? (when will a big move occur?) To answer this specifically, the answer is that there are no absolute. There are no specific time. Even if there are major news release at 1pm, a move can occur several minutes before or several minutes after the release. It will move around these times, but you cannot pin point the exact moment.

Have you been hunting? Have you been fishing? The answer to the million dollar question (when will a big move occur?) is that you have to hunt for the big move. You have to be there to catch the big fish. You don't know when or where, but your statistical edge increases simply just by being there in the moment.

I don't place orders. I hunt and fish for the big moves. I go fishing everyday (trading). I don't know what I will catch. And it's OK if I don't catch anything for the day. I don't know what time I'll catch the big one. All I know are the time of the tides (news release) and the phase of the moon (trading session). When I'm there patiently waiting and the school of fish arrive... I often catch the biggest fish you can find while other fishermen are missing out simply because they are not there.

How did you feel going home with a big fish and a full catch after fishing?... Can you see the big smile I have on my face?

 
4
  • Post #37
  • Quote
  • Apr 5, 2010 11:27am Apr 5, 2010 11:27am
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Trading Naked is Overrated

I've traded using naked charts and pure price action. There is one problem I encountered. Trading naked charts actually has more subjective interpretation compared to using a simple moving average.



========================
Explanation:
One of my objective in developing and creating my system was to eliminate as much subjectivity and discretion within the system. I discovered a flaw trading with naked charts.

Trading without any indicators leaves room for unnecessary error. Interpretations are slightly more subjective.

A classic abcd formation can occur above and below a moving average. A consolidation can also occur above and below a moving average. If you remove the moving average, you are left with a subjective interpretation whether the formation is within a given uptrend or a downtrend.

By adding a moving average, it will provide you an objective view of the price average within its calculations.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading pure price action and with naked chart leaves room for error. Trading naked charts won't solve your problems. Whether you are an experienced trader or not, you are subjected to an error in judgment.

Learn to read price action, but don't dismiss the power of moving averages. Don't be arrogant in confidence that price action alone is the answer. Trading naked charts are overrated.
 
5
  • Post #38
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:14pm Apr 7, 2010 11:14pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
Wolves Inside Every Trader

Attached Image

 
3
  • Post #39
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:36pm Apr 9, 2010 6:30am | Edited at 3:36pm
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
How To Spot a Failed Trading System

I've tested over 50 different systems in search for the winning trading system. There are a few profitable systems I've come across. The other 95% systems were a total failure. I tested its performance and not according to my subjective/biased trading style nor for the sake of system hopping. Long term, short term, trend or range, trend following or swing reversal, manual or automatic, scalping, hedging, etc... every available system I can find.

To my surprise, I discovered something I wasn't anticipating. I discovered patterns with the unsuccessful systems and the successful ones. It was an accident, but I became an expert (in my own right) in assessing a trading system whether it was successful or not.

It was an accident to see this pattern, it wasn't my objective in the first place. I realize that to create a winning trading system, it must also follow certain rules.



========================
Explanation:
I've tested so many trading system that I can spot a failed trading system a mile away! It takes me 1-minute to figure out whether a system is successful or not. I don't even have to back-test it. And with a 98% accuracy that I am right with my assessment.

Every failed trading system has a pattern and if you have that within your system, it will fail. You don't need to waste your time to back-test a failed system.

Here are the pattern and signs of a failed trading system (excluding money management and trading discipline):

 

  1. A system that doesn't clearly define the market condition
  2. A system that takes every signal of buy and sell
  3. A system that has more than 3 indicators

A system that doesn't clearly define the market condition is a failed system. Is it in an uptrend or a downtrend? Is it ranging or trending? If a system fails to address this issue it is a failed system in the long run. At best, it will be a break even outcome.

The best example of this are breakout systems; place orders at high/low here and here, set and forget, place stop or trail it.... Hold your horsie for a minute! Is the breakout with or against the trend? Is the anticipated breakout within a ranging market or not? Can you see the difference by simply finding out the market condition before entering can affect the outcome?

A system that takes every signal of buy and sell is a failed system. Whether you are using indicators or pure price action with naked charts, a buy within a downtrend market will quickly reverse. And a sell within an uptrend market will quickly reverse at a blink of an eye. Even trading within a trend, a false signal will occur during the exhaustion phase.

A system that has more than 3 indicators is a failed system. It is like having a motorbike that has air-conditioning . Traders who love stacking indicators don't know how indicators work. Indicators don't work that way.

Any system that possess any of these 3 points is a failed system. When you understand that there are different market conditions, you will understand why these 3 points will create or break a trading system (excluding money management and discipline). Vice versa, a profitable trading system possess the opposite of these 3 points.

 
2
  • Post #40
  • Quote
  • Apr 10, 2010 12:33am Apr 10, 2010 12:33am
  •  CrucialPoint
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts
The Anatomy

Throughout my research and studies, I've come across into a 5 way intersection. Entry, Exit, Money Management, Psychology (discipline) and System. They are a unique group of each kind with their own strength and pride. Each group believes that they are the highest and the most important part of trading.

One group believes that it is all about the perfect 'Entry'. The other group believes that it is all about 'Exit' and banking the profits. Another group emphasizes that it is 'Money Management' that will solve everything. The other are deadly convinced that it is the Psychology (discipline). And the final group believes in possessing the profitable proven 'system'.

So, who is right?



=======================
Explanation:
Let me ask you for a moment, which one is the most important in trading?

 

  1. Entry
  2. Exit
  3. Money management
  4. Psychology (discipline)
  5. Proven System

(answer this to yourself before you continue reading)

Okay, I want you to imagine these:

 

  1. Brain - (Psychology)
  2. Heart - (Proven System)
  3. Lungs - (Money Management)
  4. Liver - (Entry)
  5. Blood - (Exit)

Let me ask you again, which one is the most important?
(answer this before you continue reading)

If your answer is the brain, or the heart, or the lungs, or the liver, or the blood... then you're wrong!

Each are vital for survival. And each are equally as important as the other. Each are working as a whole and not as independent. They are all interdependent of one another. If one fails... Everything fails as a whole.

My trading philosophy puts emphasis equally to every aspect because I know if one is weak, it will affect the whole. If one fails... Everything will fail.

Amateurs are too busy debating, arguing and emphasizing on the one. Professionals are far away on a different plateau with their thinking and philosophy.

You dare come to the arena hoping you will take my money with your perfect Entry!
YOU FOOL!... I have a precise Entry... a deadly Exit... An impenetrable Money Management... A titanium Proven System... And the Excalibur of Psychology (discipline)... What are your chances against a foe like me!?
Hand me all of your money... Thank you, and come again!

 
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