USDJPY Prediction

Reading speculation that the BoJ comments were a head fake, given to appease exporters and manufacturers and really the BoJ truly wants a stronger yen long term. As soon as next month the BoJ may decide to let its emergency corporate-debt buying programs expire. If that’s the case, it is clearly favoring a hawkish monetary policy.

And what happened to your Gann based long term predictions?

Let me guess: it is useless as any other TA tool...

Would it be better to focus on market price action, isn`t it?

Japanese Finance Minister Fujii is drawing criticism for originally favoring appreciation in the yen and now stating that the BoJ will intervene in foreign currency markets and will act to restrain the yen if it shows excessive moves in a biased direction. He declined to say if it is currently trading in such a way, but I’d expect weakness in the yen.

Reading that traders believe that Asian central banks bought dollars in the foreign exchange markets to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the dollar in an attempt to help the domestic exporters. The Japanese have expressed this possibility but haven’t done anything, but I would expect some action in the near future as the yen continues to show strength relative to the dollar. Fujii said in an interview, "I for one do not believe that authorities should intervene in foreign-exchange markets in an excessive way. However, if forex market movements are outrageously reckless, or acting without any order, then I think some kind of measures are needed." He added, "Looking at the current situation, I don't regard it as being extremely abnormal."

Hey I wish Communist would come back and talk some more. He had so much interesting things to say! No doubt someone with a high IQ! Too bad he went silent when his first prediction here went sour... now that was a prediction I could've made.

Lets see if the second prediction, Bearish cycle ends tomorrow, Oct. 8... Seems to be shaping up nicely so far.

So what Communist, come back and tell us more story..??

Gann invented 41 tools and methods, but most of them are not reliable and didn't work because they did not withstand the test of time. This is probably why it's not that popular or talked about on these forums and people give up on it, because a lot of the things they try don’t work. With that being said, the methods that did work were very profitable, but his way of teaching isn't very practical and straight forward, there is a lot of reading in between the lines, he didn’t reveal all his secrets to anyone, because they were too valuable to him and only those who are ready would be able to pick them out of his teachings.

I think communist had the right idea, but if you don't properly apply Gann's tools to the specific currency or commodity your results will be random. Every currency acts in a unique way so what works for one will not work for another.

What I find very interesting relating to Forex is that he made his biggest discovery on 8/8/1908 and on 8/8/2008 exactly 100 years later, the Euro along with most other currencies began to plunge, which also happens to be the day when the Olympics started, to be exact the Olympics started on 8/8/08 at 8:08:08pm.

Is it a coincidence ? probably not

Speculation on the part of investors that the Bank of Japan will be quicker in withdrawing emergency stimulus than the US seems to be continuing to drive strength in the yen. It is possible that the Bank of Japan will be faster, but I think a more interesting factor is the yield difference between 10-year Treasuries and similar maturity Japanese government bonds – the yield advantage on the US Treasury narrowed to 1.92% from 2.01% at the end of last month. The appeal for US securities and dollars is diminished as investors want higher yielding currencies and assets.

Come on, Communist. Give us something to read.... Do not take it so seriously. Maybe the second one will be the good $$$$ one.

yes, communist .... if TA was 100% accurate, why then is there a "stop loss" .... ?

gives us ur insight with ur Gann analysis ... I am listening ...or should I say .. we are listening ...

The natural direction, notwithstanding the recent jump off of 88, is for the yen to continue to appreciate relative to the dollar. If the BoJ starts buying dollars then it is fighting the market in order to try and support a weaker yen - sustainable for some time, but not long term. I think there are easier pairs at this time, no need to force something as the near term situation looks more convoluted than other pairs.

The yen rose against all 16 major currencies after data from Japan’s central bank, which kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, worried investors that deflation will deepen as the Bank of Japan report showed producer prices fell for a ninth month. Now Japanese Vice Minister Naoki Minezaki is on record saying that dollar weakness is likely to continue and Japan shouldn’t intervene in currency markets.

Dear communist, since the beginning i knew exactly how it would end.

By the way man, that´s why i love forex. Dont try to predict the market because you are like trying to predict the future. Predicting the future, you are trying to be God.

I liked when you talked about Buffet. But have you REALLY studied the guy ? His best shot is "dont try to predict the Mr Market, because he is a very emotional guy, indeed, he is sorta freaky". He is more like a girl than a lot of fishes swimming together ... btw do you know why a lot of fishes is very different from a lot of humans together ? because they dont have greed and fear, just basic instincts. They suck a lot at this emotional thing, very different from the Mr Market, a very temperamental guy.

But thanks for your ideas, i learned a lot, and i like you style, questioning others. But you know what is better than questioning others ? Questioning ourselves.

The yen went down a little on news that Japan retail sales slid for the 13th month in September. Sales were down 1.4% from a year earlier although analysts estimated that it would be down 1.6%. Last week’s five-day Silver Week holiday was expected to drive sales, but reports that unemployed and smaller bonuses is leading to frugality on the part of consumers which account for 50% of the Japanese economy. I still don’t like the yen.

jpy weak in front of the gbp and eur, but strong against the aud and nzd!Plus the prime ministre announced the strenght or at least the evolution of its economy, which may give a boost to the currency

Communist

Great job with the dates, Low-Sept 14, Low-Oct 8, High-Oct 26th. Fantastic!!

I often miss dates in the middle, it is hard to get them all !!!

I would like to hear more.

Interesting how 1 missed date brings out all the comments.

p.s.how did this turn into a funnymentals discussion, I think there are threads for just that.