USDJPY Prediction

Dolphinepips,

Please refer to post #10 about my view on fundamentals.

I have no interest in this sort of stories as there is no such things as bullish or bearish news, they are relative to people's expectations and expectations change and not possible to predict.

Bullish movement started as predicted.

This movement will end on around 26th Oct 2009, using 16th September 2009 as the starting date, the trend will last for 41 calendar days.

With vibrational frequency of 0.25 per calendar day, price will move up 0.25 * 41 = 10.25. Will 90.10 as starting point, the bullish trend will end on 26th Oct 2009 at around 100.35.

However, like I said before, time is more important than price.

Now you should sit back and watch the market move up, and hoping for a retracement soon so that you can add to your winning position. More on that when time is right.

Now, something about time.

You must have noticed that in my predictions, I emphasis more on time than price, as if you get in and out at the right time, you will make money, price only determines how much you will make, so it is less relevant when P/L is concerned.

Year, month, day, hours, minutes and seconds, and you can keep scaling it down as there is no limit. But what is time? I mean other than what your watch is showing you.

It is quite a simple question. Time is defined by motion. When earth rotates 360 degrees, we say a day has passed. When the earth rotates around the sun for 360 degrees, we say a year has passed. So you can see without motion, there is no time, or put it this way, time is motion and motion is time, just like in any markets, price is time and time is price.

Now it is pretty obvious why I said time is circular, because the motion of our planet which creates time is circular. If the earth moves around the sun in a triangular manner I would say time is triangular.

And time is relevant to our reference point. If our civilisation is based on Mars or Venus, I am sure we will use 687 days or 225 days as one year. As you can see the concept of time is directly linked to the planets, now I hope you are less cynical when I tell you that astrology is the study of motions of planets and therefore the study of time.

When people hear about astrology, they laugh. For centuries astrology has been linked with superstitions, interpretation of personality or prediction of events. Does it work? I don’t know because I have never studied those areas of astrology. As far as my study is concerned, astrology is the study of motions of the planets and their relations to each other.

Now, back to Gann. If you read about his books, Gann said his use of astrology was based on empirical studies. Did he, in any of his books, tell you that Saturn is the lord of country XXX and Jupiter is governing say the dollar? No. He never did. You see that is the difference between his use of astrology and say Tarot cards. He never assigned any meaning to any of the planets.

This also brings the topic of “time frames”, which seems to be one of the reasons people use to justify why they are trading 50 time a day, without a clue which way the market is going. And this concept of “time frames” usually couples with the wrong understanding of fractals. More on that later.

hey communist, thanks for the post. i watched on youtube about gann's theory of 50%. very interesting even today as he was a trader back in the early part of the 1900's. Now if his theory serves right then the dow which had a low of 6470 back in March 6th 09, and if you divide the low by 50% then you will get 12940. Do you think thats the turning point of the usd/yen as well? I have my eyes set on 12940 to see if it does turn bearish. Thats all I know so far need to read more about his strategy. Again thanks for the insight on Gann. Am I right or wrong?

Treadline,

Gann is not a strategy, it is the truth of any markets, it is about the causes for market movements or human emotions.

Actually your question is another topic I will discuss later. Sorry I do not have the time to go into more details now as I have a new acquisition deal and deadline is pretty close.

Just to touch briefly on your question: you should not look at any indexes, such as dow, ftse, nasdqe etc. as these are SYNTHETIC CONCEPTS which are artificially created and there are not governed by supply and demand.

Put this simply, they reflect the so called “market sentiment” based on how you pick the stocks. BUT, they do not move just because you bought or sold a contract on the indexes. See that is the difference between these concepts and the actual securities, whose movements are caused by human emotions or supply and demand.

This is why when Gann predicted the dow, he said it is wrong to base you prediction on the actual dow index. He did it by predicting individual stocks then use the same way dow used to average these prices to get the index.

That 100 prediction isn't looking very good right now, daily chart just threw up.

forextine,

Retracement is normal in a bullish trend which will last for more than 1 month. Retracements present opportunities to add to your winning position, although it is too early to add now.

Also 91.00 is a natural strong support / resistance point, give that it is the midpoint of even square number 100 (10 * 10) and odd square number 81 (9 * 9).

Yes but price action shows so much selling pressure. As soon as it gets its head above the water, it gets slammed back down.

Communist,

Would you reveal how you calculate the date? What makes you so sure that the low at 16 September is the point?

The yen is appreciating relative to the dollar, hitting 90.49, on speculation that companies are repatriating funds before the end of the fiscal first half. With the three day weekend there are a lot of yen purchase orders from exporters. This could provide additional strength for the yen for a nice short-term trade the next day or two. Buy yen.

Once again, sellers come in and pound it down.

Miscounted the dates. Close long at 89.90, taking a loss of 137 pips.

Enter short at 89.80. Target of bearish movement ends on 8th Oct 2009.

hi communist,

what could have happened? you beagged so much about bullish movement on usd/jpy that will hit 105 in november and now you closed at 137pips loss. is that the way you give 'free money' to people?

lol...

chasing the market?!!

USD/JPY is going for 77 levels target!! Straight Out!

JPY will get EXTREMELY STRONGER with ALL currency Pairs, but the worst hit will be with GBP/JPY, I predict a meltdown below 100.


Wait n Watch.


Good Luck

The new Japanese government and the Bank of Japan have previously shown interest in a stronger yen in an attempt to decrease the importance of exports in hopes of increasing consumer spending, however, now they have come out and said that they may take action in markets after the yen reached an 8-month high. The new government had decided to allow the currency to float according to market participants instead of following its policies of the past of buying dollars and selling yen. Also, Japanese interest rates are no longer the lowest in the world, exposing it less to the carry trade and less selling of the yen. The combination had fueled a rally in the yen to <90.
Finance Minister Fujii, after coming into power two weeks ago, said the idea of a weaker yen helping the nation’s exporters is “absurd,” and he opposed governments stepping into currency markets “in principle.” Now he comes out with “If the currency market moves abnormally, we may take necessary steps in the national interest.” Two contradictory statements. It’s essentially importers vs. exporters.
I think long-term the yen needs to lose value. The demographics of the country are not positive. The economic fundamentals of the country are not positive. And now Fujii says they will buy dollars.

The USD stay strong against the Euro & GBP
The only currency resisting is the JPY: USD/JPY went down 90!
Expectations: Optimism around the USD

Looking at Bloomberg analyst estimates for Japanese interest rates: 14 of 16 analysts expect interest rates to stay the same at 0.1% through the end of 2010. Reports Tuesday showed consumer prices fell a record 2.4%. A strong yen and deflation could be very dangerous for Japan’s economy. The trend since April has been for a strong yen, but I think a reversal is in order – especially considering the change in policy by the administration and a now increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange markets.

It is delicate, there is more volatility around the usd/jpy, may be due to Japan government not focusing too much on the strenght of their currency
Non Farm payrolls-coming b prepared