Does anyone know where I can find some statistics about trends? I had an article some years ago but I've lost it.. I need data like: if the price moved 100 pips up the chances that it will go another 30 pips are 85%.

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- | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: serbsDC | 39 Posts

Does anyone know where I can find some statistics about trends? I had an article some years ago but I've lost it.. I need data like: if the price moved 100 pips up the chances that it will go another 30 pips are 85%.

- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Lunatic Supreme | 1,840 Posts

Nod. Might be best to phrase it in terms of ATR.

Have you ever considered doing the calculations yourself? It's not hard, and is a priceless skill to learn.

Have you ever considered doing the calculations yourself? It's not hard, and is a priceless skill to learn.

- | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: serbsDC | 39 Posts

Thanks for replies. You are right; I should try figuring this out by myself. I guess I should start with Excel, historical data and adding the formulas... Anyway, I'll post what I find out here so someone can verify. Thanks again.

- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re | 1,851 Posts

If you search on GoodThings profile you'll find lots of stuff on stats for each pair.

Here's a start

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ght=goodthings

Here's a start

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ght=goodthings

- | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: serbsDC | 39 Posts

Thank for the links, both were very helpful. I've spent some time on my one as well, and here's what I've got:

I chose gpb/jpy since it's one of the most volatile currency pairs. If the rate moves 150 pips (doesn’t matter up or down) during the day (open price +150/-150 pips) the chances that it will continue for example another 30 pips in the same direction by the end of the day are 100%. But I think some minor adjustments are to be maid to provide accurate data. This’d been calculated based on one month data. I know, not the most relevant sample but it's a start, since I have the formulas and I should just get the historical data inserted.

I chose gpb/jpy since it's one of the most volatile currency pairs. If the rate moves 150 pips (doesn’t matter up or down) during the day (open price +150/-150 pips) the chances that it will continue for example another 30 pips in the same direction by the end of the day are 100%. But I think some minor adjustments are to be maid to provide accurate data. This’d been calculated based on one month data. I know, not the most relevant sample but it's a start, since I have the formulas and I should just get the historical data inserted.

DislikedThank for the links, both were very helpful. I've spent some time on my one as well, and here's what I've got:

[color=black]I chose gpb/jpy since it's one of the most volatile currency pairs. If the rate moves 150 pips (doesn’t matter up or down) during the day (open price +150/-150 pips) the chances that it will continue for example another 30 pips in the same direction by the end of the day are 100%. But I think some minor adjustments are to be maid to provide accurate data. This’d been calculated based on one month data....Ignored

- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Member | 99 Posts

DislikedNod. Might be best to phrase it in terms of ATR.

Have you ever considered doing the calculations yourself? It's not hard, and is a priceless skill to learn.Ignored