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  • #16,061
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:44pm Jul 24, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting Shadowfx
Always nice to return in the confidence T1 at 1.565 & T2 at 1.563 been reached and TP been collected...

See there's a healthy discussion going on with a complete Bulls team scratching heads...why..why..why..doesn't it retrace?

I'm for sure not the almighty who knows it all...but I do have an economical background, combined with many years of both stock & forex experience.

I've already explained in previous posts why imo EUR didn't break 1.6 again..technically it could have with ease...
Now it does not retrace at normal technical expectation levels...makes you think doesn't it...

I'm to tired today to go into full detail...but here's something to think about..

This correctional move is made in consensus..both USA & Europe need to stabilize the EUR & USD..it has mutual benefits.
Its backed up worldwide by central banks including Asia
Its backed up by large investment & hedge funds

If you think its a coincidence Oil has dropped (corrected) so much...you live in a dream world..imo..

Even the DJI dropping today...is "forgiven"...

Finally ask yourself the question...who moves the markets and sets directions...once you figure that one out...the total picture might become a lot more clear...

Still bearish...I'll post my arguments tomorrow at London Open

As always Just my 2 cents...

I think EU should enter upper 1.6 when dollar sell-off resume. They should follow the technical history.. They are just trying to limit more upside moentum when dollar sell off starts again.. you know what i'm talking about
  • #16,062
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:45pm Jul 24, 2008 2:45pm
I see a last minute test of the intraday pivot. A close above 1.5680 can signal a pissble reversal but. due to my RSI analyses my Downward RSI channel 2 is acting like a ceiling for it a break past the channel then opens the way to the upper limit of my channel 1 and a break above that takes us to bull territory when that happens i'll be looking for a (DD+). If anything, the Euro still has a while to go before correcting itself. That's just what I see. Everyone else might see otherwise, but all trends are timeframe specific, so I'm sticking to this one.
I see 4 barriers it has to clear,

1 the upper limit of my (DD-) channel,
2 the 50 line of the RSI
3 the 60 line of the RSI
4 the downward channel 1 (huge one)


-gratiae.

'totus intus vicis'
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"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16,063
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:57pm Jul 24, 2008 2:57pm
Im still bullish.
  • #16,064
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:05pm Jul 24, 2008 3:05pm
It cleared one, 3 more to go before i think of going long. it might actually close above the pivot. And it does =] Let's see what this baby does in Asia session it might shoot up even higher and form the upper level of the foghorn I made earlier. then collapse to 1.54. BTW a rejection of the 50 level of the RSI = Downtrend continues.
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"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16,065
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:06pm Jul 24, 2008 3:06pm
Quoting steelhead
Im still bullish.
me 2...always will be,..the setup looks good...i guess this time no fake breakout...lets see...
its just money
  • #16,066
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:07pm Jul 24, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting steelhead
Im still bullish.
I think daily candle will close above 1.5700s for today.
  • #16,067
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:09pm Jul 24, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting de123
me 2...always will be,..the setup looks good...i guess this time no fake breakout...lets see...
yes let's see in 4 hrs.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16,068
  • Jul 24, 2008 3:45pm Jul 24, 2008 3:45pm
what you think about the news tomorrow, still make downtrend?
what we see depends mainly on what we look for...
  • #16,069
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:08pm Jul 24, 2008 4:08pm
I dont know I dont really follow news. =] Only interest rate statements.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16,070
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:21pm Jul 24, 2008 4:21pm
yo baby..actually it's trying to go up but still it need time for ranging before breakout to the top
  • #16,071
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:43pm Jul 24, 2008 4:43pm
any movement around these times are insignificant because it isnt a major session yet.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16,072
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:08pm Jul 24, 2008 8:08pm
Quoting Shadowfx
Always nice to return in the confidence T1 at 1.565 & T2 at 1.563 been reached and TP been collected...

See there's a healthy discussion going on with a complete Bulls team scratching heads...why..why..why..doesn't it retrace?

I'm for sure not the almighty who knows it all...but I do have an economical background, combined with many years of both stock & forex experience.

I've already explained in previous posts why imo EUR didn't break 1.6 again..technically it could have with ease...
Now it does not retrace at normal technical expectation levels...makes you think doesn't it...

I'm to tired today to go into full detail...but here's something to think about..

This correctional move is made in consensus..both USA & Europe need to stabilize the EUR & USD..it has mutual benefits.
Its backed up worldwide by central banks including Asia
Its backed up by large investment & hedge funds

If you think its a coincidence Oil has dropped (corrected) so much...you live in a dream world..imo..

Even the DJI dropping today...is "forgiven"...

Finally ask yourself the question...who moves the markets and sets directions...once you figure that one out...the total picture might become a lot more clear...

Still bearish...I'll post my arguments tomorrow at London Open

As always Just my 2 cents...
thnx for ur comments here... and yeah... i am still bearish... i thought gonna be a boring friday.. but i dont think so...

maybe eurusd gonna keep falling hard as in "150 pip today"

my 2 cents.

btw...

im short atm with no profit target since i am willing to close it some mins before nyse closing bell...

but my sl is circa thursday's highs...
  • #16,073
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:11pm Jul 24, 2008 8:11pm
3 parts about 5-6 minutes each.

Roubini: Bear Market Only Half Over, But It's Not Armageddon

Part 1
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...lf-Over-But-It

One of the most noted skeptics on Wall Street, NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini says the financial system is in "the worst crisis since the Great Depression," and that the bear market in stocks is only half over.

Subprime mortgages are only the tip of the bad-loan iceberg, says Roubini, who expects the "subprime financial system" to ultimately suffer credit-related losses of between $1 trillion and $2 trillion vs. the approximately $330 billion thus far.
~~~~~~~~~~~

Roubini: More Than $1 Trillion Needed to Solve Housing Crisis

Part 2
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...,WM,WB,WFC,BAC

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has been putting on a full-court press in the last 24 hours, making the case for his plan to shore-up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"I would rather not be in the position of asking for extraordinary authorities to support the GSEs," Paulson said in a speech Tuesday in NYC. "But I am playing the hand that I have been dealt. There is a need to support efforts that strengthen Fannie and Freddie's ability to continue to play their important role in financing mortgages and in our capital markets more broadly."

The timing of Paulson's speech -- and various and sundry media appearances -- is not coincidental. This week, Congress is expected to vote on housing legislation that includes Paulson's plan, which a GAO report said is likely to cost the government $25 billion.

But $25 billion -- or even the GAO's worst-case $100 billion estimate -- pales in comparison to the cost of doing nothing, says Nouriel Roubini, NYU professor and chairman of RGE Monitor.

"We have to find a solution where government intervention prevents a disorderly outcome" in the housing market that leads to a "systemic banking crisis," Roubini says.

The housing bill, which earmarks $300 billion to backstop mortgages after lenders agree to lower mortgage payments, is "a step in the right direction" but "doesn't do enough," he says, predicting the government will ultimately need to spend more than $1 trillion.
~~~~~~~~

'They're All Toast': Roubini Says Brokers, Even Goldman, Can't Stay Independent

Part 3
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...,MER,JPM,BAC,C

The broker/dealer business model is "inherently unstable" and the four remaining major firms will not be independent in a few years, says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU's Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor.

Embattled Lehman Brothers is likely to seek a buyer "within months," Roubini says. Lehman Brothers ceasing to be independent is not such a shocking outcome, but Roubini ultimately sees a similar outcome for Goldman, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley.

The problem, he says, is that broker/dealers use the same model as banks -- borrow short and lend long -- only they borrow on even shorter timeframes, use more leverage, and don't have the kind of government backstop banks enjoy.

In the wake of Bear Stearns' demise, which showed how brokers are vulnerable to a "run on the bank" if they can't get overnight funding, the Fed temporarily opened its discount window to brokerage firms. But making that option permanent means submitting to the same kind of regulation and capital requirements as banks; that, in turn, means a very different business model -- and much lower profitability -- for Wall Street firms, whose current business model is "not viable," he says.
~~~~~~~~~
  • #16,074
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:36pm Jul 24, 2008 9:36pm
can we go for long first to 1.5750..
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  • #16,075
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:39pm Jul 24, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting ch0c0b4d
can we go for long first to 1.5750..
wait til next week...


just my 2 cents
what we see depends mainly on what we look for...
  • #16,076
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:53pm Jul 24, 2008 9:53pm
Quoting FXCapitalist
so you made 200 pips what's wrong with that. no offense but please burn your emotions and throw it out of the window. That's how I learned. A long time ago but I never forget it.
Aw, just when I thought you were a young genius! :o)

So far we're still going doooown, boyz! *hopping on a south train*
  • #16,077
  • Jul 24, 2008 10:50pm Jul 24, 2008 10:50pm
Quoting ch0c0b4d
can we go for long first to 1.5750..
even there is a lot of news today,..
i doubt this market will make a trending move.
should be continue sideway move for today.
15718 is the first resistant and 15634 is the support, as shown in my chart.
i saw a round bottom on 4H chart, i believe its an uptrend for next week.
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  • #16,078
  • Jul 25, 2008 12:20am Jul 25, 2008 12:20am
Too Quiet... anyone have a deck of cards?
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #16,079
  • Jul 25, 2008 1:02am Jul 25, 2008 1:02am
Good Evening mates,,, yeah,, I was able to get on this bull right at 1.5630,, 25 mini lots.. 1.60 here we come with a vengeance..
  • #16,080
  • Jul 25, 2008 1:03am Jul 25, 2008 1:03am
Quoting EurUsd
wait til next week...


just my 2 cents
Eur going to 1.70 in your eyes. Why ignore your terrible economy that has 0 good numbers? Do you remember the times the world has to bail you out because you don't know when to quit? Euro owns the world? ahahahahahhaahhaha...buck tooth bastards.
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