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EURUSD

  • #925,941
  • Edited 6:43am Sep 24, 2014 6:25am | Edited 6:43am
EURUSD
This could be how we get to support if price turns back up.
Next move up if any shouldn't take Daily R1 out at 1.2883, this is Bfly Buy at strong support. This lightning bolt ABCD is also possible (we traded one on AUDUSD Monday) with destination not so low. In that case today's central pivot 1.2863 + 38.2 % Ret should hold. This is an 1 hour chart. I don't have any other plans until we reach this support.
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  • #925,942
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:37am Sep 24, 2014 6:37am
i dont know if we go to 27xx this time or 2919.. i am not in atm, i was wrong and didn't get the anticipated bounce high enough. its not the first time since 39xx. i figured 2802 area would give a larger bounce along with the 2919 setup would allow me to short 100 higher min.. its at 2830 atm, and looks to make a LL.. i have 2 conflicting charts, one with trend, the other counter from near 2802.. on the counter one, it would try not, to make a LL now, and likely bounce would be 2815/2839. i am not in the trade so i dont have a personal bias. just 2 views with pros and cons.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #925,943
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:39am Sep 24, 2014 6:39am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} Fun fact, Forexlive get all their information (abt banks) from me. Got some friends there who are on my mailing list. *edit, there is gonna be someone here calling bullshit, so here. have a picture. {image}
So maybe you can answer this?

Quoting KingHussain
{quote} why would these companies put their trades to public? what do they gain from it? they hire experts by paying them high fees, why would they put their trade secrets in public for free?
  • #925,944
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:44am Sep 24, 2014 6:44am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Actually forexlive posted that stuff from morgan stanley recomendation, but thats bank clients only information... Wasnt meant for the public.... Forexlve is all too well know of posting some inside information.... Only from banks that they got sources from....
so isn't that illegal?
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #925,945
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:46am Sep 24, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} Fun fact, Forexlive get all their information (abt banks) from me. Got some friends there who are on my mailing list. *edit, there is gonna be someone here calling bullshit, so here. have a picture. {image}
not a big deal brotheer I used to get bank reports from swiss banks, but since I am just scalper and dont need too much info I spam them.
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #925,946
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:48am Sep 24, 2014 6:48am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} So maybe you can answer this? {quote}
as someone who writes these as my job I explain as clearly as I can.

In today's market, no client trades with one bank. Hence a trade reco adds zero value to a bank (kinda). Lets say I put out a reco on a 3m EURCHF DNT, a HF client might really like that idea, yet they will RFQ from maybe 5-6 banks before trading. (I've added a screenshot of this trade) As we can the spread is 150,000 EUR. (for 1mil notional) and so if the HF trades with us, we make some money. But who's to say we have the best price, he might go to JPM or Deutsche instead.

These recommendations are our CV, we really do believe in these ideas, those that say "we trade against it" is complete bullshit. Those people have a fundamentally poor understanding of how this whole thing works. We want as many people to read our ideas, especially as we do think they'll do well and attract clients to us (maybe in our wealth management/ asset management departments).

For example, if we manage to attract 100mil in assets because we've had a good quarter of trade reco's then we effectively will make 1-2mil. Not bad.

Furthermore, the people reading these notes are people we may want to work for. As I said, these are our CVs, and if they are good, then Hedge funds will hire us. simple as that.

Also, there is a lot of pride associated with writing these, not only for ourselves, but competitiveness between banks.

Any other Questions, its a slow day, I'm happy to answer them.
Attached Image
  • #925,947
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:48am Sep 24, 2014 6:48am
Quoting KingHussain
{quote} so isn't that illegal?
No. This is inside policy of every bank only. Disciplined is the only penalty. One who sends the most mails out will be spanked by a vely nice female in the middle of laaandan city. (inside of a flat beside a brewery)
  • #925,948
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:51am Sep 24, 2014 6:51am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} No. This is inside policy of every bank only. Disciplined is the only penalty. One who sends the most mails out will be spanked by a vely nice female in the middle of laaandan city.

if you're interested in it, here

https://live.barcap.com/publiccp/RSR...emination.html

Edit - I don't work at barclays.
  • #925,949
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:54am Sep 24, 2014 6:54am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} if you're interested in it, here https://live.barcap.com/publiccp/RSR...emination.html Edit - I don't work at barclays.
no, I get them daily. delete them as soon as I see them.
If some of the bosses wants to know something from big banks I forward. I dont read this.

Specially not PLN 2y vs EURNOK call etc..
  • #925,950
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:56am Sep 24, 2014 6:56am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} as someone who writes these as my job I explain as clearly as I can. In today's market, no client trades with one bank. Hence a trade reco adds zero value to a bank (kinda). Lets say I put out a reco on a 3m EURCHF DNT, a HF client might really like that idea, yet they will RFQ from maybe 5-6 banks before trading. (I've added a screenshot of this trade) As we can the spread is 150,000 EUR. (for 1mil notional) and so if the HF trades with us, we make some money. But who's to say we have the best price, he might go to JPM or Deutsche instead....
This is along the lines of what I was thinking. It benefits banks to put out good information.

thank you for your answer- you have a new subscriber always fun to see how you "banksters" view the markets
  • #925,951
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:57am Sep 24, 2014 6:57am
Now it makes sense, thank you Aws1962 for answer.
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #925,952
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:59am Sep 24, 2014 6:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
Good H4 cross on the weekly pivot and daily R2. I'm short from here (2893), but will be looking for 2924
Closed that short early due to the seemingly valid cross.

Will be looking to short from 2893 again
  • #925,953
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:08am Sep 24, 2014 7:08am
EUR/USD appears to be in consolidation again but the doji candlestick in the daily filter chart could be an indication that it will continue its descent if it breaks below the supprt at 1.2810. However, the bearish trend appears to be exhausted, so I am not sure how reliable that signal is.
  • #925,954
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:14am Sep 24, 2014 7:14am
May long from 2821 to 2843
  • #925,955
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:24am Sep 24, 2014 7:24am
Someone daring to sell into this support or already long?
  • #925,956
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:30am Sep 24, 2014 7:30am
Quoting victoriajen
EUR/USD appears to be in consolidation again but the doji candlestick in the daily filter chart could be an indication that it will continue its descent if it breaks below the supprt at 1.2810. However, the bearish trend appears to be exhausted, so I am not sure how reliable that signal is.
it made a LL 2 days ago. a bounce would not hurt my feelings. i doubt the trend is exhausted.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #925,957
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:35am Sep 24, 2014 7:35am
Old news- but I'm just coming across it.

Quote
DUBAI: Thousands of children in swaths of war-torn Syria, now controlled by dreaded Islamic State militants, can no longer study math or social studies under new diktats issued by the jihadists.

so unfortunate.
  • #925,958
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:47am Sep 24, 2014 7:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it made a LL 2 days ago. a bounce would not hurt my feelings. i doubt the trend is exhausted.
I think it is crawling into the breakdown atm
Attached Image
  • #925,959
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:50am Sep 24, 2014 7:50am
Quoting CandleStar
Someone daring to sell into this support or already long?
No one dare to short from support, but from Resistance
Forex as Leverage
  • #925,960
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:58am Sep 24, 2014 7:58am
this looks like the move lower
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
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