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  • #893,481
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:46am Apr 29, 2014 9:46am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} {quote} You guys are missing the big picture. Davit's fundamental analysis backs up the technicals pretty well. And did you really think they'd close the now 1 pip gap so retail longs could exit?
there is still 1 pip gap?
what is a gap?
why a gap has to be filled?
what creates a gap?
what is the counter force and reason to close a gap?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #893,482
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:47am Apr 29, 2014 9:47am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} there is still 1 pip gap? what is a gap? why a gap has to be filled? what creates a gap? what is the counter force and reason to close a gap?
all in all why a gap has to be filled if it is created in the first place?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #893,483
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:49am Apr 29, 2014 9:49am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} there is still 1 pip gap? what is a gap? why a gap has to be filled? what creates a gap? what is the counter force and reason to close a gap?
Okay actually doing the math it's 3.4 pips from Oanda's charting package that it missed the close by from a couple weekends ago. We had institutional traders pushing price south that created the gap, retail wouldn't have. Every noob trader knows that you always "close the gap". Or so you're supposed to. So it's easy to know who the idiots were who were slowly buying to fill this one. See my post on weak bulls yesterday.
  • #893,484
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:52am Apr 29, 2014 9:52am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} all in all why a gap has to be filled if it is created in the first place?
all gap filling is by random, by accident, not by design or on purpose. If there is market force to go the way to fill the gap, the gap will be filled and will be passed. If there is no market force to go the way to fill the gap, it will not be filled. A few months later the gap may be filled, but not on purpose, it is by market force going that way and it will be passed.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #893,485
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:56am Apr 29, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Okay actually doing the math it's 3.4 pips from Oanda's charting package that it missed the close by from a couple weekends ago. We had institutional traders pushing price south that created the gap, retail wouldn't have. Every noob trader knows that you always "close the gap". Or so you're supposed to. So it's easy to know who the idiots were who were slowly buying to fill this one. See my post on weak bulls yesterday.
We are on the same page.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #893,486
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:56am Apr 29, 2014 9:56am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} all gap filling is by random, by accident, not by design or on purpose. If there is market force to go the way to fill the gap, the gap will be filled and will be passed. If there is no market force to go the way to fill the gap, it will not be filled. A few months later the gap may be filled, but not on purpose, it is by market force going that way and it will be passed.
If we take that as true then all theories about retail 70%+ short/ long supposed to have MM pushing opposite direction...is false as well which I believe it is.
Something on effect Vachus was hinting stops taken top and bottom.I just think stops consumed are by product of market movement.Its hard coordinating 4 trillion+ dollar market to target 6% tiny retail trader...
The guy who places million dollar orders at the Bank or Hedge fund in his view we don't exist at all.I read from a real bank trader that their reasons for going long or short are based mostly on fundamentals and for most part longer view in mind.
It won't surprise me if big players are not gearing up to short EU with vengeance specially May in the corner.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #893,487
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:57am Apr 29, 2014 9:57am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} all in all why a gap has to be filled if it is created in the first place?
the one on the cad was filled after 30 years. whats the odds? the elevator goes up and down. who can handle the drawdown. like its "going to wherever". but the failure to say there may be a 900 pip drawdown before, is the problem. timing with an exit if things go wrong needs to be in the statement. shorters were ridiculed with the sure thing. now its nap time. later, i got some attention waiting for me in the pool.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #893,488
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:00am Apr 29, 2014 10:00am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} We are on the same page.
Alright then.
  • #893,489
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:02am Apr 29, 2014 10:02am
Quoting Davit
{quote} If we take that as true then all theories about retail 70%+ short/ long supposed to have MM pushing opposite direction...is false as well which I believe it is. Something on effect Vachus was hinting stops taken top and bottom.I just think stops consumed are by product of market movement.Its hard coordinating 4 trillion+ dollar market to target 6% tiny retail trader...
My understanding is that FX market is a fight between commercials and big speculators (many big funds). Retails are small insects compared to those whales. The market makers for retails are also small compared to the big banks that serve as the big MMs for commercials and big funds.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #893,490
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:09am Apr 29, 2014 10:09am
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD Another good selling opportunity imo... Reason. Daily .786 Ret + Weekly pivot R1 + Daily pivot R3.
I will use next retracement 4 hours to add more.
Previous techs resume after .786 Daily Ret.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
Harmonics Return Today: 2.2%
  • #893,491
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:11am Apr 29, 2014 10:11am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} My understanding is that FX market is a fight between commercials and big speculators (many big funds). Retails are small insects compared to those whales. The market makers for retails are also small compared to the big banks that serve as the big MMs for commercials and big funds.
Just don't forget that whales feed on krill, and that some of those "big funds" act like retail traders here. Which is why many go bankrupt.

(I thank them for their donations)
  • #893,492
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:12am Apr 29, 2014 10:12am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} My understanding is that FX market is a fight between commercials and big speculators (many big funds). Retails are small insects compared to those whales. The market makers for retails are also small compared to the big banks that serve as the big MMs for commercials and big funds.
In general commercials are the peanut and butter in the FX market, and everybody else suck on them. Commercials do not make profit from FX market, they need foreign currencies to do business and pay out their employees. They have to pay premium to the FX market for exchange of foreign currencies.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #893,493
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:15am Apr 29, 2014 10:15am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} My understanding is that FX market is a fight between commercials and big speculators (many big funds). Retails are small insects compared to those whales. The market makers for retails are also small compared to the big banks that serve as the big MMs for commercials and big funds.
Which also negates the whole retail position majority as bait simply false.

People posting this have no conclusive evidence but continue posting same myths over and over without slightest evidence.
Truth is if one to fade retail majority consistently won't make you rich....its probably same odds as opposite.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #893,494
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:16am Apr 29, 2014 10:16am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Which also negates the whole retail position majority as bait simply false. People posting this have no conclusive evidence but continue posting same myths over and over without slightest evidence. Truth is if one to fade retail majority consistently won't make you rich....its probably same odds as opposite.
To take the exact opposite position of majority retail will, though. Unfortunately it's not possible to have a listing of them.
  • #893,495
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:18am Apr 29, 2014 10:18am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} To take the exact opposite position of majority retail will, though. Unfortunately it's not possible to have a listing of them.
I disagree I shorted NU recently were majority retail was short and price plunged down from 8760 to 8530
Had I went long opposite of retail I would of lost badly...

Again nobody has conclusive evidence but myths and anecdotes.Same myth as 95% traders lose money.This is another myth perpetrated by industry to sell people software and books.
When you read 95% traders lose but we have a solution you know its a scam just marketing ploy.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #893,496
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:20am Apr 29, 2014 10:20am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I disagree I shorted NU recently were majority retail was short and price plunged down from 8760 to 8530
Retailers win sometimes, but an anecdotal example here won't save them the fact that at the end of the day most of them lose it all. Just imagine how many lost money trying to short this a million times before today.
  • #893,497
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:22am Apr 29, 2014 10:22am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Which also negates the whole retail position majority as bait simply false. People posting this have no conclusive evidence but continue posting same myths over and over without slightest evidence. Truth is if one to fade retail majority consistently won't make you rich....its probably same odds as opposite.
the market makers for retails often hedge their net positions, either by offsetting them with big banks or go hedging with futures. small MMs for retails cannot move the market at their will. Soros is much much bigger than many retail MMs.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #893,498
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:25am Apr 29, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Retailers win sometimes, but an anecdotal example here won't save them the fact that at the end of the day most of them lose it all. Just imagine how many lost money trying to short this a million times before today.
retails win by coincidence, not by their combined force.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #893,499
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:26am Apr 29, 2014 10:26am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} retails win by coincidence, not by their combined force.
Oh I certainly agree. Just saying they win individual trades sometimes. But in the long run it doesn't mean jack squat as to their long term account balance of zero.
  • #893,500
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:27am Apr 29, 2014 10:27am
retails win?? lol you mean 5% retailers win
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