We will def. be in a range for the rest of this day and probably tomorrow as well. That range should be somewhere between 1.56 and 1.57. However, Wed. should hopefully show us a new trend heading one way or the other. There are some key numbers coming out of the EUR zone at 5 AM EST and then Trichet speaks at 8. Depending on the numbers there might not be a whole of movement until the FOMC announcement later in the day. It seems that the market is already factoring in a rate cut of 25 basis points by the Fed. However, with all of the inflationary pressures on food and energy I think is very possible that the Fed might leave rates as is. Since I am net short EUR this is what I am hoping for. If this happens, look for a very crazy day on Friday for NFP. If the Fed doesnt cut rates and NFP comes out better than expected we could see EUR at 1.53 by the end of the week. I doubt that we will see that but the stage is set for such a scenario. Best of luck to all.
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