EURUSD

acidguy u are not any more on my igone list,...dont woory now just hold on...

me personlay was also in big loss this week, but honestly i was overtrading, and i cant watch loss for a longer time, thats me... now i must punish my self, and so i am done for few month and am back on smaller account...:

I end this week in loss too
Damn..
anyway, today the month is finished, and i've closed the month in profit
Lost the battle, but not loosing the war ( hope the next month will be like this one )

They do it because they can, people read a lot of their bs and belive/trust their predictions. People like to follow and don't like to create and follow their own decisions. So when traders lose do to discussions and signals created by big guys like this (pfxglobal.e.) they feel as they can blame others for mistakes. However as traders only oneself can be responsible for decisions.

thanks for those kind words.
sure, this about knowledge and experiences.

its sad cause probably the money will go this time by the toilet(uhh, i meant, broker.)
probably this was needed, will demo some time, will create some new and hopefully better techiques, then will come into play again.

That happened to me. I left the forum for some time and was very successful. This morning I had a short, closed for 2 pips, and went long. Then closed long for 3 pips. I quit at that point and think reading other posts made me think too much. Or I recognized the confusion in me was from confusion in the market because it didn't go anywhere.
Try not reading anything in a forum at all for 2 weeks and see what happens.

Acid guy,

Take the daily charts and draw trend lines. Trade the breaks of those daily trend lined. Don't worie about lower time frames. Use 100-150 pip s/l and plan your mm around that. Use micro lots if need be. But you will catch all the big waves and lose very very little. The thing is resisting other trades in between. It can take a long time between signals, especially if you exit too soon and it keeps going. Thats when you practice getting back into a trend.

Right now there are no daily euro$ trend lines to go by. The price ran away and left the trend lines behind. Now you have to wait it out while it establishes new trend lines for this wave.
You won't need any other indicator. Follow that simple stradigy and you'll make money. I am guilty of taking other trades and you will be too. Limmit those to small losses and if you can't win any don't take them.

Here is my chart I use for turns, initial signal and over all direction.

I know its crazy simple but I swear this is what I have been doing all along. The long wave we are at the top of needs to establish the bottom trend line.

It really can be this easy but no body can resist adding stuff to it and taking other trades, picking tops and bottoms, and otherwise throwing away winnings staying at break even for ever.

edit: I had to wait for the first 2 waves to complete after that long run up from 1.3500 before I could even take a trade. I exited and waited for it to end.

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/6...lytrendhi7.gif

Well I certainly saw all of that: And the Brokers made out like bandits! IMO Neat how the Banks/Brokers kick out your stops ... and assume the positions ... and immediatly .... change direction and make a quick profit ..... at your expense .... a sitting duck you are ... for a ragging appetite by them. Some of you need to read this report and get an understanding of this process on going to steal your positions and eventually break your accounts: Now do you understand why so many unsuspecting Newbies bite the dust eventually? Read this report and find out why: IMO IMO



Stop Hunting 101:

Trade Team Update -- 2/26/08

Today in the chat and over the past few weeks, we indicated that should the market take the euro to 1.5000, that it would not stop there and turn around, but would likely move to 1.5050 to give the banks and brokers the opportunity to trigger stops and cause major stoplosses acrossed the board...

That is precisely what happened when we touched 1.5000... the banks and brokers triggered stops and this fueled the exaggerated move towards the 1.5050 level, before falling back...

Now to this day I still get traders that want to argue with me or don't want to believe that there's such a thing as stop hunting and stoploss triggering. I'm not going to use this post to discuss the value or stupidity of using stops, but rather to explain how this whole thing works with the hopes that more traders can eliminate getting stop hunted and can keep more of their profits...

Basically, all the brokers shove it down your throatthat you must set tight stoplosses of 20 or 30 pips or at 00 and 50 levels, plus most tech traders use stops because they have no clue how this market really works and why it moves the way it does, plus all the big "gurus" beat traders over the head about placing tight stops, plus if you go into any FX chat room or message board (except ours) and you tell them you don't use stops you'll get ridiculed, beaten-up and bullied for not using stops... it's really ridiculous...

With the vast majority of retail traders using tech indicators, the same tech indicators, the vast majority are all setting stop losses within a few pips of each other all on the same key tech levels, so right off the bat, they are sitting ducks, in addition, the brokers can see those stops and they have computer algorithms to hunt those stops...

So, during times of low liquidity and during times when the big market players are out of the market, the banks and brokers work together to manipulate the market to move against those traders and to trigger those stops, it's very simple and easy for them to do...

Have you ever set a stop? Have you ever seen your stop get hit only to watch the market turn right around and go the opposite direction? If you answered yes to that, you were the victim of a stop hunt.

The other way traders get easily stop hunted is for the fact most set stops on round-number levels like 00, 20, 40, 50, etc. For example, suppose a trader uses some techs and they decide to set a stop 30 pips below a key Fib line (which is tremendously common) well, the brokers and banks know what those levels are and they know the mentality of the tech traders so they use low-liquidity opportunities to push the market past those key tech levels to knockout stops and then the market turns around and goes the opposite direction...

I could go into much more depth on this, but I think you should get the idea...

Stoploss triggering is similar to stophunting, but slightly different... lets use today's move from 1.5000 to 1.5049 as our example because that was a classic, textbook, run-of-the-mill stoploss triggerby the banks and brokers...

How did I know that the banks would trigger stops if we were to break the 1.5000 level? I can't see any stops and I'm not a broker, and I'm not psychic, but I knew this and warned about this way in advance because I know the mentality of traders and I knew there would be tons and tons of stops all over the place between 1.5010 and 1.5050...

On a stoploss triggering situation, when there are big stops placed with big money on the line, this just fuels the stoploss fire and that's when we see the kind of exaggerated and violent moves we saw today...

And surprise, surprise, when did this take place? Almost as soon as the NY traders went home, when the European and UK traders were sleeping, and before the Tokyo traders turned their computers on... it started right after 5:10 p.m. EST when the market was completely flat and there was almost zero liquidity...

That is the time of day that the banks and brokers will hunt stops and trigger stoplosses... it's tremendously easy for them to do, as we saw today right before our eyes... and just as we said, the market would return to the point from where it took off -- the market will almost always return to the point it takes off from because those moves are 100% stoploss triggers and 0% buying... if it was a move caused by buying, the market would not fall right back down again and return to point of take-off, but it did...

Simply look at a chart at 5:10 p.m. EST, follow the spike up to 1.5049, then follow its fall back to where it was at 5:10 p.m. EST -- I'm not into candlepatterns, but that is a straightup stoploss trigger pattern on your chart!

Again, I could go into more depth on the stop thing, but hopefully I've made my points clear and this is information you'll take into consideration if you decide to use stops in the future...

Credit goes to:
http://www.fxinsights.com/forums/showthread.php?t=858


And I agree with this report: IMO

Acidguy:

I also made a similar decision about a trade (demo) that is still running its course (10k EUR/USD long since 1.4814) and have made a few better decisions along the way with a hedge account that made pips while main acct is in limbo. The really scary thing is I now have a live account that will be funded early next week, and I'm going to trade this mess!?!? With REAL Money?!?!

xxDavidxSxx:
" Take the daily charts and draw trend lines..."
I like the trade style and going to look into it as most everything I was looking for is out the window.

I am also working on some of my own software tools to use as indicators. So far functional and 50% accurate. I think I need about 80%.

Those poor guys who didn't have SLs on JPY paired currencies the last two days... especialy the even poorer guys who had trades at the start and still hold them......

Just my personal opinion - if you can't choose your trades well anough to profit in the long term or the profit is too small to be worth your time, either get better or quit. Creating an illussion that you succeed for a while until one unexpected reversal wipes out your account is just a poor and not thought through game plan.

Hmm... I see it happen 2 hours earlier than that on my chart... Not that I think it matters. If you short so early against such a strong move towards the resistance, you get burned. That's why I keep repeating to myself the FIRST RULE OF TRADING when I trade - DON'T DO STUPID STUFF!

More on stop Hunting for newbies to read. IMO

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...topHunting.asp

The traders at the brokerage I use use at least 100 pip stops. They know the whipsaw is always in play.

Oh 1.5700 is quite off the possible here. Maybe thats very long term but well.. I am looking for eurusd to top out soon, way below 1.57. At least, we are completing a 5 waves up. A corrective a-b-c must follow from 1.53 maybe or 1.54

Anyway, next week will unfold that.

Regarding AUD sell off, do not get caught! It's end of month, taking profit, carry unwinding, friday.. well, I doubt this sell off will get any follow thru, on other hand I think aussie will strike up with euro and pound next week.

And remember that RBA will hike interest rates next week, and they will maintain a hawkish bias so this should keep aud supported and attract buyers on dips. I think aud is cheap now after this 200-points drop.

enjoy guys, maybe some of you could get what really is happenings, and not what banks say or other big corporations.



Whats happening with the dollar, show me the big picture...




About carry madness




cya, good weekend.

Superb links!!

Closing longs on Monday open. Looking for a short but sweet correction.

Sell Limit @1.5162 TP1 @1.5105 TP2 @1.5035

enjoy.

What prompted the change of heart?

People talk about US flooding market with cash, what about the 600 Billion Euro's the banks pumped into the system near the end of last year?

probably there is a global conspirancy to defase usa and of course usd.
part of those playing the game is the ECB, Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela.
who are pressing in every corner of the globe for changes away from the usd and destroy usa.

the thing is true, ecb has pumped €600 into the system, but was not for consumism-debt, was just for many investmenets who got drought after us investmenets flaw away. so they could not give credits.

when usa monetary system gets dry is good to avoid confusing things, that money has not dissappeared.
almost all that money end up in china or other countries holder of us debt or big surpluses.

the goverment receive that money, from the investmenet groups, hedge funds and blablabla. then pack into debt, bond, treasuries, wall street instruments.
then pay its debt. thats probably why they dont care much about the value of the $.

cause if usa does not grow, they can not keep playing this game there would not be enouth reasons to keep buying usa debt, and the whole monetary system would fall.

i even would dare to say, Bush son made this on purpose, that was his target, destroy usa economy.(he has done nothing, to make usa productive. *nothing, but just pack more debt and consumerism) and dont get me wrong. his father tried to do it also. getting into wars and dooming usa future, but it could not cause on that time there were not any of the excesses usa live standards have today after 90s boom.

I've been holding longs since 5020 and expect a slight pull-back when 5162 fails to hold. I'm still bullish over-all, however will trade a slight pull-back if I can get filled @ 5150-62. Pretty tight stop though being that its a risky trade.