EURUSD

3% ?? :surprised

I risk virtually everything, 3% can barely sustain a trade and the market's volatility ...

It depends on your trading style. Plus your success rates.

If you win 75% of your trades you can risk more like 5%.

Oh and I mean 3% per trade so you can allow yourself to re-enter.

what happens if you were right, got stopped out and need to try 2 more times before it turns around in your favor?

I can see it taking Sunday and drifting down to 1.4769 before bouncing up off the bottom trend line.
Or it could crawl up the top trend line too.

Edit: actually, what ever the new weekly pivot is, is the likely bounce point if these trend lines break down.

http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/5...okcont3yl2.gif

Here is a wave count on the sideways correction.

If it is a top it would be a quadruple top? Does that happen? It has completed a 5 wave sideways correction that also should signify there will be a final wave up before turning trend. According to elliotte wave any way.

http://img297.imageshack.us/img297/1350/eweuroxe2.gif

I would think short term here at this pivot. Frankly it could go either way. I would hate to be short and have it creep ever higher and put me over a barrel. I called 1.54 in this pair a month ago, so no need to preach to me, but times change and it really all depends on what happens. Current market uncertainty makes this a guessing game on most positions, unless you are in for the long haul or playing options with positions and have next to zero risk.

The eurusd is at a crossroads, I have a hard time trying to find a reason anyone would want dollars for any long term investment (unless stockpiling cash to buy US corporations, perhaps cheap stocks, certainly not US Treasuries) anyway. Do what you do, try to be civil...no one like a know-it-all.

I'll be looking for a decent pair to move on, there is not much to chose from; I think EurUSD in a range here 1.49 - 1.45 is very likely for a while.

Hi Guys, I am new to this forum though and I am glad to join this forum cos there are lots of seasoned and savvy traders here for me to learn from all of you man.

Well, from the way it looks to me, it seems that the pair is meeting with a very strong resistance at 1.4865 and a triple top has formed as seen on the daily chart though. Interestingly, the resistance is here at 1.4865, but the lows for this pair is getting higher though the pair is moving sideways for these few weeks.

I am looking to long it again if it breaks the resistance. What do you guys think?

By the way, I would appreciate it if someone can teach me how to draw the fibonacci retracement on the 1-hr chart? Cos I have read a book by Jared Matinez, but have yet to learn how to draw it accurately. Thanks in advance!

I am expecting Eu to come back to test 1.4764 level.. Here we can expect or Pullback to retest 1.49 level.. But 1.4764 can bring Further down also .. so stay tuned... I am going for sleep now. Will catch you tomorrow..

You're not going to see a lot of "give" to the upside with these bollinger bands on the daily chart. Looks like the lower bollinger bands are accommodating a lower penetration to the downside. Weekly bollinger bands look pretty firm also, preventing further excess moves upward. I've never seen such sideways bollinger band moves on the Eur/Usd.

I say next retrace will be 1.4720, then up for 1.49 and more!

I think 1.44 - 1.46 into the week for the following reasons.
1) 1 day is almost fully into the overbought (See chart).
2) 3 hr is just out of overbought.
3) 2 1/2 hours before the market has opened it hit 1.484 and dropped back down. (Sellers getting a head start at high spreads?)
4) Triple top, quad top quint top? If you look at charts long enough you can see fluffy bunny's (See chart). We just had the quad top and general market news down overall but overseas stocks are down almost 3% more than Dow for 2008.
5) Still dropping as I type.
6) I went short last week.

If you use this information for trading and lose, don't blame me.
If you use it and profit, thank me as I did too!

I see the fluffy bunny. How cute!

I think it's building momentum for another move up. Might come down to 476 area as well now but it'll probably go up fast. Think it'll try to consolidate a bit above 1.49 and see what happens from there. In my opinion most chances it won't cross the 1.5 this time, but on the next swing up it's possible. Will be interesting to see where the next low will be then too.

btw, the Fib levels I see on my charts on the first two swings in the triangle was about the same - from 1.5 to about 1.426-7 and now it is up to about 1.436-7 till 1.5 on this last swing up. According to this previous fib level is at about 4758 and it broke the next one up at about 485 but didn't continue up so far. And then there's congestion below 490 also that's not on the fib.

Wow that hourly looks precariously perched.

Isn't it odd that the fed cut its fed funds rate by 150 basis points since November and yet we haven't seen a new low on the dollar?

this pair will skyrocket to 1.52 and above in the next 2 weeks, prepare this week to touch water above 1.50 as usa data migth be dissapointing.

A bold forecast, to be sure. Be prepared to admit incompetence should it not materialize.

what is the prize if its right .....

Respect and monetary gain - if you had some money riding on it, that is.

Quote

Disliked

LONDON – Goldessential.com – Feb 25 – 8.15GMTEUR/USD strategy: Sell at 1.4920 – Objective: 1.4320 – S/L: 1.4980.

RES 3: 1.5010** (Daily channel res )
TREND BIAS RES 2: 1.4970*** (Nov 23 high )
1-Week Obj: NEUTRAL RES 1: 1.4920*** (Jan 20 high )
4-Week Obj: DOWN to 1.4400 (08:12GMT SPOT 1.4805)
Conviction: SUP 1: 1.4755** (Feb 19 high )
1Wk: Weak: 4Wk: Strong SUP 2: 1.4690** (Congestion )
SUP 3: 1.4610** (Feb 20 low )

(OVERVIEW) Now looks to threaten ....

Src: http://www.goldessential.com/index.p...d=688&Itemid=1

Objective at 1.432 ?? That's well outside the big triangle... These guys don't like the Euro do they.. But duilly noted.