2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
- #398,564
- Mar 1, 2011 4:01pm Mar 1, 2011 4:01pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Amat victoria curam | 2,333 Posts
@Hatch:
In Europe shit will only hit the fan if germany ever decides to leave the EU, which is virtually impossible and the CDU and CSU will make sure of that even if they loose credibility in the eyes of the public.
Italy isnt a big as major player even though their sov debt is about 1.1 Trillion if i remember correctly. Havent seen the actual debt data which is currently appropriate. Spiegel had a nice article about it but i dont trust them all that much. They get paid to write stories. I know a couple of writers and editors there and the shit i heard about them writing stories months before something happens is just shocking.
@ Whoever commented just a few 0.1% off real unemployment data on US.
Its one thing if data was off by 0.2-0.4 % its another thing if its off by a third or 3-4% in this case. The problem with the way unemployment and inflation is being calculated in the US is that its not an actual representation of the data given. People who are unemployed but do not seek unemployment status (because theyve given up, numbers around 300 000 people right now) are not accounted for according to the system... which is retarded and every economist agrees on that.
1) Those oppressive chinese own about 22cent of each dollar in your pocket... hows that for oppression?
The Yuan is a far safer currency than the dollar will be right now, you can thank your incompetent congress for that one
Oh and also thank Reagan politics
2) Democratic superpower? The Yen may be far away from a reserve currency status, so is the Yuan, but the Euro is looking a lot more attractive each single passing day isnt it. Some would go to argue that EU is actually far more democratic than the US is... cough patriot act... cough.. cough womens right and family protection and protection of Food, agriculture... workers... and families (Norway, Denmark, Holland, Spain, Germany etc etc etc)
3) Go take a solid hard look at the state of your municipal bonds... its a SHITFEST waiting to hit the fan and spray clumps of brown stains all over your face, dear god i cant wait to short the shit out of the bonds
4) Who cares if you are a day trader? I swing trade, i day trade but i scalp mostly, mainly because i can make more pips in an hour scalping than with 1 daytrade but thats a different story no need for dick measurements here, to each his own, i hope you are in the green with your pips and i wish your trading all the best.
Nevertheless, i was criticising your post in a constructive manner giving you enough examples for your faulty reasoning, albeit my tone is a bit harsh but it always is harsh, dont like it? Put me on ignore if my tone offends you.
I was criticizing you nevertheless for "one post".. and it was quite a stupid one, your pride is getting the best of you, maybe its your patriotism, i live in the EU and im not a patriot of anything other than myself, EU is in a very very tough situation, i could give you about a 100 reasons or a 100 crisis and subsequent crisis for the eu, for almost every single member state. Objectively, EU is far better off position wise than the US right now if it doesnt manage to cut its federal budget, reduce its sov debt, and start producing goods and exporting again other than relying on the financial sector to make up more than a third of your gdp.
Have a nice day
In Europe shit will only hit the fan if germany ever decides to leave the EU, which is virtually impossible and the CDU and CSU will make sure of that even if they loose credibility in the eyes of the public.
Italy isnt a big as major player even though their sov debt is about 1.1 Trillion if i remember correctly. Havent seen the actual debt data which is currently appropriate. Spiegel had a nice article about it but i dont trust them all that much. They get paid to write stories. I know a couple of writers and editors there and the shit i heard about them writing stories months before something happens is just shocking.
@ Whoever commented just a few 0.1% off real unemployment data on US.
Its one thing if data was off by 0.2-0.4 % its another thing if its off by a third or 3-4% in this case. The problem with the way unemployment and inflation is being calculated in the US is that its not an actual representation of the data given. People who are unemployed but do not seek unemployment status (because theyve given up, numbers around 300 000 people right now) are not accounted for according to the system... which is retarded and every economist agrees on that.
All I said was: When sh*t really hits the fan. Where will financial people look? to the oppression of China. Aussie isn't a world player. So where? There is only one democratic superpower and that's the USA. Now get off Mommy's PC and go take out the trash. I trade intraday and just play the PA. No need get your panties in twist over one post about my opinion of the geopolitical environment. OR to put is simply: Pull your head out of your arse.
The Yuan is a far safer currency than the dollar will be right now, you can thank your incompetent congress for that one
Oh and also thank Reagan politics 2) Democratic superpower? The Yen may be far away from a reserve currency status, so is the Yuan, but the Euro is looking a lot more attractive each single passing day isnt it. Some would go to argue that EU is actually far more democratic than the US is... cough patriot act... cough.. cough womens right and family protection and protection of Food, agriculture... workers... and families (Norway, Denmark, Holland, Spain, Germany etc etc etc)
3) Go take a solid hard look at the state of your municipal bonds... its a SHITFEST waiting to hit the fan and spray clumps of brown stains all over your face, dear god i cant wait to short the shit out of the bonds
4) Who cares if you are a day trader? I swing trade, i day trade but i scalp mostly, mainly because i can make more pips in an hour scalping than with 1 daytrade but thats a different story no need for dick measurements here, to each his own, i hope you are in the green with your pips and i wish your trading all the best.
Nevertheless, i was criticising your post in a constructive manner giving you enough examples for your faulty reasoning, albeit my tone is a bit harsh but it always is harsh, dont like it? Put me on ignore if my tone offends you.
I was criticizing you nevertheless for "one post".. and it was quite a stupid one, your pride is getting the best of you, maybe its your patriotism, i live in the EU and im not a patriot of anything other than myself, EU is in a very very tough situation, i could give you about a 100 reasons or a 100 crisis and subsequent crisis for the eu, for almost every single member state. Objectively, EU is far better off position wise than the US right now if it doesnt manage to cut its federal budget, reduce its sov debt, and start producing goods and exporting again other than relying on the financial sector to make up more than a third of your gdp.
Have a nice day
- #398,565
- Mar 1, 2011 4:02pm Mar 1, 2011 4:02pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #398,567
- Mar 1, 2011 4:06pm Mar 1, 2011 4:06pm
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: fx indices commodities | 4,145 Posts
rat
- #398,568
- Mar 1, 2011 4:11pm Mar 1, 2011 4:11pm
- | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: 888 | 1,664 Posts
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- #398,569
- Mar 1, 2011 4:14pm Mar 1, 2011 4:14pm
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
- #398,570
- Mar 1, 2011 4:23pm Mar 1, 2011 4:23pm
- | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: 888 | 1,664 Posts
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- #398,571
- Mar 1, 2011 4:28pm Mar 1, 2011 4:28pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trading, Not Posting | 2,130 Posts
- #398,573
- Mar 1, 2011 4:40pm Mar 1, 2011 4:40pm
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
- #398,574
- Mar 1, 2011 4:41pm Mar 1, 2011 4:41pm
- | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: 888 | 1,664 Posts
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- #398,577
- Mar 1, 2011 4:47pm Mar 1, 2011 4:47pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: I'll Take Your Pips | 1,338 Posts
This is BS ......
Whenever I go Long on EUR/USD ...
It will hit my SL ....
Dammit ... why ????
Make sure your sl has some room for bs moves. Tip of the day!
- #398,578
- Mar 1, 2011 4:52pm Mar 1, 2011 4:52pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Amat victoria curam | 2,333 Posts
Your points here and elsewhere (fx-wise) are spot on - and in some cases understated...
Is the Euro more prone/vulnerable to bad news than the US? Yes
Is the the Debt Crisis in europe over? No it isnt but its like david vs goliath when you compare the shit the US is in
I do not wish for any country to fail, in the end its the people that suffer the most even though ill be perfeclty honest in saying i really dont give a shit about other people, it would be pretty sad though to see another recession.
You are also right in saying that there is no textbook on how a default of the US would unfold... it boils down to so many factors in the end it would be impossible to predict them.
As a trader its out responsibility to trade where the market tells us to go. Thats why whever i short the euro right now i am doing so reluctantly, i short in a downtrend off supply levels, and long in an uptrend from demand levels but i will admit that i am far more willing to enter longtrades than shorttrades.
We can agree on basic facts that the Yen and the Euro and the Yuan for that matter will be more valuable than the US because their GDP is based on actual production, at least they produce more than the us does and is (thankfully) lagging behind in their percentage of GDP that consists of purely financial trades (banks etc).
I will not sit here and proclaim that i am some kind of prophet, i go where the market takes me, 8/10 trades im profitable, the remaining two are a mixture of being completely high on coke and psychological factors
I however did call for that EU long based on priceaction, and unless the nearest demand gets taken out by an engulfing candle through demand i am not willing to give shorttrades more than 20 pips per run at the max.
And trust me when i say the following:
I want the euro/usd to be at 1.24 or even 1.18, not only because thats a fair evaluation, but because a high euro is costing the Eurozone a shitton of money on exports and production. A high euro is expensive for the economy and actually dampens it. So im waiting for 1.40-42 and i will start scaling into shorts from there on. I have remained with my stance ever since 1.35 that shorting the euro is equal to suicide for longterm trades.
And all of this business right now is the exact reason why ive turned from swingtrading to scalping, i would rather enter 200 trades per day (actually more along the lines of 60-140 trades per day) than enter 5 longterm trades and possibly get wrecked because of patience and psychology.
We will have to see what NFP report says on Friday, which sectors got hurt most by unemployment, and how the actual production rate is coming along. Other than that its just sitting along the sidelines now. although i did enter a small long a couple of mins ago, but exited for +2 instead of +7 so yeah... im tired
im exhausted, i need 4 hours of sleep, then its off to university and back to scalping.
I wish you all a good night, take care
