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Monthly Profit - Daily Trading using SMA

  • #9,201
  • Sep 29, 2017 9:10pm Sep 29, 2017 9:10pm
Quoting stevepatt
Something to consider... {image}
Hi stevepatt, agreed. To have a better view I always check the weekly charts on weekends and monthly on month ends. Weekly is showing that we are still in the rising channel but retracing from the upper band. Monthly is showing that price action remains in range capped by the Bollinger middle band.
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I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,202
  • Sep 30, 2017 7:53am Sep 30, 2017 7:53am
Quoting stevepatt
Something to consider... {image}
Here's what it looks like on an H1 Chart.

When we see a Close below the previous Days Low we are seeing a shift in the Order Flow.

We don't want to Sell Low so wait for the PullBack to Whole and Half Numbers.

Institutions often initiate and finish their moves at Whole and Half Numbers.

Here's another good video on the Market Maker Profile.

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  • #9,203
  • Sep 30, 2017 9:10am Sep 30, 2017 9:10am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Here's what it looks like on an H1 Chart. When we see a Close below the previous Days Low we are seeing a shift in the Order Flow. We don't want to Sell Low so wait for the PullBack to Whole and Half Numbers. Institutions often initiate and finish their moves at Whole and Half Numbers. Here's another good video on the Market Maker Profile. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3t0oIqXe-aU {image}
Hi stevepatt

I have that very video on my desktop! Yes well done for planning your trading in this way. To be honest I have only recently started to adjust my trading to "riding on the big bank's coattails". It's extremely important to understand their business model. You will always get idiots appearing who think they can beat the banks but they soon disappear again when their accounts are emptied. It's a very tough game because we (small traders) are no doubt being targeted. But you are absolutely right about how they operate. To master this vital fact is the difference between winning and losing

I think an interesting case on this point is GBPJPY from yesterday. The drop broke through the 200 ema on the 1 hour chart but the move ran out of steam. The Banks pulled it back to gain liquidity and it started dropping again at the close. One can be certain now (I think) that it will test 150.00 level again on Monday
  • #9,204
  • Edited 10:07am Sep 30, 2017 9:56am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Hi stevepatt I have that very video on my desktop! Yes well done for planning your trading in this way. To be honest I have only recently started to adjust my trading to "riding on the big bank's coattails". It's extremely important to understand their business model. You will always get idiots appearing who think they can beat the banks but they soon disappear again when their accounts are emptied. It's a very tough game because we (small traders) are no doubt being targeted. But you are absolutely right about how they operate. To master...
Hi JM,

GBP/JPY

As I see it the Liquidity between the Weekly - Monthly Level and the 150.000 BRN is being used to "Off Load" the Bullish run up without "Slipping Price"

I'm watching which side gets the first Close above or below the previous Days High/Low
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  • #9,205
  • Edited 2:30pm Sep 30, 2017 1:28pm | Edited 2:30pm
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Possible candidates for Sunday night or Monday.

SMA 5 looks right. Room on the BB. A small retrace has also finished it looks like.

I think Cd/J also bears watching. G/Cf already mentioned above in detail. We will see what weekend price movement brings.

FS
  • #9,206
  • Sep 30, 2017 1:33pm Sep 30, 2017 1:33pm
Thanks Oddbjorg for your assistance. FS
  • #9,207
  • Edited 3:05pm Sep 30, 2017 2:26pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi JM, GBP/JPY As I see it the Liquidity between the Weekly - Monthly Level and the 150.000 BRN is being used to "Off Load" the Bullish run up without "Slipping Price" I'm watching which side gets the first Close above or below the previous Days High/Low {image} {image}
I understand the big idea here . . . but probably need to come up to speed with the detail of it all. We all know the banks are managing price.

Thanks for your thoughts and charts here. It is probably helping numerous of us learn things we need to know better.

Question for Stevepatt: do you see this as a. larger problem with the major currencies of USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY? Would you be less concerned with their behavior if you were looking at something like AUD/CAD or AUD/NZD? Just wondering how widely they intervene.

FS
  • #9,208
  • Sep 30, 2017 2:42pm Sep 30, 2017 2:42pm
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} Weekly is showing that we are still in the rising channel but retracing from the upper band.{image} {image} {image}
I do note that top to bottom of the channel (post 9201) is around 800 pips so plenty of room to move down for a successful trade on the D1 once (or if) it meets normal criteria.
  • #9,209
  • Sep 30, 2017 11:39pm Sep 30, 2017 11:39pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
{quote} I understand the big idea here . . . but probably need to come up to speed with the detail of it all. We all know the banks are managing price. Thanks for your thoughts and charts here. It is probably helping numerous of us learn things we need to know better. Question for Stevepatt: do you see this as a. larger problem with the major currencies of USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY? Would you be less concerned with their behavior if you were looking at something like AUD/CAD or AUD/NZD? Just wondering how widely they intervene. FS

Hi FS,

I don't work within the industry so I can't say how wide "their" intervention goes.

But I would imagine it goes across the board.

Here's another video, it's long, but worth watching if you want to understand how the whole system works.

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  • #9,210
  • Oct 1, 2017 1:00am Oct 1, 2017 1:00am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Here's another good video on the Market Maker Profile. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3t0oIqXe-aU {image}
Thanks. Watched it yesterday. It is a good one. I have to admit that you have to understand SM if you want to understand the market. Or at least: trying to understand.
  • #9,211
  • Edited 7:47am Oct 1, 2017 2:52am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi FS, I don't work within the industry so I can't say how wide "their" intervention goes. But I would imagine it goes across the board. Here's another video, it's long, but worth watching if you want to understand how the whole system works. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7G0OfJUON8
Great stuff stevepatt. Thanks.

Guys I think the important thing to concentrate on at all times is sentiment. What is the sentiment on a particular currency? Then once we've established that, we know that the banks are simply manipulating price to gain liquidity in order to push the price further up or down in conjunction with the main weekly/monthly trend.

Another thing I'm concentrating more on these days is break out of accumulation/ranging areas. These are areas where price action is not making a higher high or lower low. Taking GBPAUD as an example, price is banging between 1.7100 and 1.7150 obviously it's ranging and until we get a candle that closes out of this range it's best to stay out of this particular pair. However once we get a break out it's usually a good opportunity - either re-test of 1.6950 or up to 1.7300 area
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  • #9,212
  • Oct 1, 2017 9:19am Oct 1, 2017 9:19am
NZDUSD is in continuation pattern
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I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,213
  • Oct 1, 2017 12:45pm Oct 1, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Guys I think the important thing to concentrate on at all times is sentiment. What is the sentiment on a particular currency? Then once we've established that, we know that the banks are simply manipulating price to gain liquidity in order to push the price further up or down in conjunction with the main weekly/monthly trend. Another thing I'm concentrating more on these days is break out of accumulation/ranging areas. These are areas where price action is not making a higher high or lower low. {image}...
Now this is a BIG IDEA for all of us. Trying to take it onboard.

FS
  • #9,214
  • Oct 1, 2017 4:56pm Oct 1, 2017 4:56pm
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} Hi Le.mj, it is based on my experience after reading the articles in the links below. But as Oddbjorg I consider myself as a learner, and hopefully I will keep this beginner's mind (and some zen mind as well ) so I might discover some even more effective tool in the future. I use it essentially as a filter. I observed a higher success probability when the MACD had already crossed the signal line in the direction of the setup. And as for all oscillators divergence with price action provides additional confidence in the setup. These...
Appreciate this. Thanks Filipo1..
  • #9,215
  • Oct 1, 2017 7:03pm Oct 1, 2017 7:03pm
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} These articles will hopefully help you to use it adequately: https://www.luckscout.com/how-to-use-macd/ https://www.luckscout.com/macd-divergence/ /
Pretty convincing. Certainly will save some poor decisions.

FS
  • #9,216
  • Oct 1, 2017 10:34pm Oct 1, 2017 10:34pm
GBP/CHF D1 Pending Sell Limit

See this Post #9,198 and this one Post #9,202
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  • #9,217
  • Edited Oct 2, 2017 1:38am Oct 1, 2017 10:53pm | Edited Oct 2, 2017 1:38am
Good idea to sell the Euro today guys
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  • #9,218
  • Edited 6:30am Oct 2, 2017 5:55am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/CHF D1 Pending Sell Limit See this Post #9,198 and this one Post #9,202 {image}
I am still short in this one.
But reagrding the setup rules I guess we should have entered the position when the signal candle did cross the SMA. That‘s how I understand it.
Anyway: remaining bearish for gbp.

But no setup found as per today that would fit to the rules.

Beside that , in EURUSD it was nice to see how the Asian session operates. Sideways action only within a small range. Then London opens an the volatility comes into the market.

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  • #9,219
  • Oct 2, 2017 10:34am Oct 2, 2017 10:34am
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/CHF D1 Pending Sell Limit See this Post #9,198 and this one Post #9,202 {image}

I've canceled this Pending Limit Sell
  • #9,220
  • Edited Oct 3, 2017 12:12pm Oct 2, 2017 2:49pm | Edited Oct 3, 2017 12:12pm
GBP/AUD D1 Pending Limit Sell Trade

Waiting for a PullBack to better value to Sell.

Sell High / Buy Low

I posted the wrong chart
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