Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 953 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #19,041
  • Jun 20, 2017 11:04am Jun 20, 2017 11:04am
Quoting faatkumo
Is this a possible way to work out trades that go sour? In another words, does this work? {image}
Yes. Apart from that breakeven part. You wouldn't be breakeven only half the loss of the entire box range. It would only be breakeven if you closed the first trade at the mid, but then it isn't really a counter because the position at the mid is exposed
  • #19,042
  • Jun 20, 2017 11:16am Jun 20, 2017 11:16am
Quoting bojack34
I was at work tonight at the start of the 04-00 break but looking at it now it fails some of my personal rules......first off with the range more than 50% larger than normal we have to take into consideration any "obstacles" that might be in our way and today there was a Daily Pivot Line and a 00 line and resistance. Too much in the way for me so I probably would have passed today. Although my stats say that when the original trade fails and the opposite side is triggered......we have a 94.1% chance of getting +5 on the other side and 73.5% chance...
I fell asleep and woke back up and of course price crossed the Lower Trigger and went for +10. Gotta love stats!
  • #19,043
  • Jun 20, 2017 11:47am Jun 20, 2017 11:47am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Yes. Apart from that breakeven part. You wouldn't be breakeven only half the loss of the entire box range. It would only be breakeven if you closed the first trade at the mid, but then it isn't really a counter because the position at the mid is exposed

Are you talking about where i placed the REDBOX?
At that point i would be SELL & LONG at the midpoint (over weekend), at its essence isn't that a breakeven?
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  • #19,044
  • Jun 20, 2017 12:02pm Jun 20, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} As such, I agree that we would take the first break down. This, however, as you found, fails. Now, as Billy has just said above, from this moment on, we are trading lines and not thinking about where the market will go or will do... Yep. We are back at the WZ concept doo-dah again. We now have two options (neither of which include waiting for price to reverse all the way through and getting in at the top edge). We can either counter at the lower WZ edge or we can counter at the Mid-Line. This is dependant on the size of the ''candle''. Here,...
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I know you are doing your own take on this but I'd suggest taking a look at my post to PH above, as you would benefit from it as well.
Lem is always spitting gold lol. I am looking more into the Wick-Zone before I start implementing it into my trading. I think I'm understanding your approach more, but I need to lay out a plan of how I would react when price doesn't do what I want it to do. The only thing I'm afraid of is that although I may be able to recover quicker with wick zones, there may be a slightly larger chance of getting caught in a few more whips, especially when the zone is small. That's why at the moment I am giving trades more room and countering at the high/low (or mid depending on the candle size) where I am sure I am in the wrong direction.

Anyway, I'll look into it more. Thank you Lem!
  • #19,045
  • Jun 20, 2017 12:21pm Jun 20, 2017 12:21pm
Quoting claudia1
That's my day. Wine bar time. {image}
Hi Claudia,
Great results, but it takes confidence and a big account to sit through some of that drawdown. Love this way of trading though, only hope I can emulate it over the long term.
You seem to exclusively trade afternoons and evenings and leave the London open alone, is there any particular reason for this with cable or just your preference?
Thanks
Simon
  • #19,046
  • Jun 20, 2017 12:36pm Jun 20, 2017 12:36pm
Quoting faatkumo
{quote} Are you talking about where i placed the REDBOX? At that point i would be SELL & LONG at the midpoint (over weekend), at its essence isn't that a breakeven? {image}
That box range is 15 pips.

You countered at the mid in this example. So one buy position is down -7.5 points. When price travels to the other end your buy position is -15 but your sell position is +7.5 making you only down -7.5. So it's not breakeven just half loss
  • #19,047
  • Jun 20, 2017 12:41pm Jun 20, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting faatkumo
Is this a possible way to work out trades that go sour? In another words, does this work? {image}
Yep, you got it, with PH's caveat. I've said this before and it's true here, that this is actually easier to run than it is to try and keep track of it in your head and put down on paper, lol.

I would again, though, always bear in mind the WZ aspect and not just the Mid-Line. As I have noted before, the Mid-Line entry strategy can be risky, as often price will pivot and twirl around the mid-line before making up its mind which way to go - and can as often than not, turn back on itself, as continue on. If you have gone in on a WZ entry, you will already have bagged pips at that point.
  • #19,048
  • Jun 20, 2017 12:51pm Jun 20, 2017 12:51pm
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} That box range is 15 pips. You countered at the mid in this example. So one buy position is down -7.5 points. When price travels to the other end your buy position is -15 but your sell position is +7.5 making you only down -7.5. So it's not breakeven just half loss


Three trades executed by the beginning of the box.
Trade 1 Long
Trade 2 Counter Sell Midpoint

Then Trade 1 Closed at "Sell Trigger" (Low of H4)

Trade 3 Counter Long at Midpoint

We're now in our box with Trade 2 and Trade 3....
If Trade 2 & 3 were entered at the same exact line, isn't it break-even within the RedBox??
  • #19,049
  • Jun 20, 2017 12:51pm Jun 20, 2017 12:51pm
Quoting StudyFX
{quote} {quote} Lem is always spitting gold lol. I am looking more into the Wick-Zone before I start implementing it into my trading. I think I'm understanding your approach more, but I need to lay out a plan of how I would react when price doesn't do what I want it to do. The only thing I'm afraid of is that although I may be able to recover quicker with wick zones, there may be a slightly larger chance of getting caught in a few more whips, especially when the zone is small. That's why at...
Oh, of course, on the FB, it is very dependant on the size of the box - you need room to breath. Unfortunately before you ask it's kind of gut-feeling as to what is a ''good'' shape to the box c/w ''WZ'' etc.
  • #19,050
  • Jun 20, 2017 12:52pm Jun 20, 2017 12:52pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Yep, you got it, with PH's caveat. I've said this before and it's true here, that this is actually easier to run than it is to try and keep track of it in your head and put down on paper, lol. I would again, though, always bear in mind the WZ aspect and not just the Mid-Line. As I have noted before, the Mid-Line entry strategy can be risky, as often price will pivot and twirl around the mid-line before making up its mind which way to go - and can as often than not, turn back on itself, as continue on. If you have gone in on a WZ entry, you...

So you're advising using Body of the Candle and not the Wicks as I am?
  • #19,051
  • Jun 20, 2017 1:04pm Jun 20, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting faatkumo
{quote} So you're advising using Body of the Candle and not the Wicks as I am?
I am saying that a way to look at the box is as one giant candle and so you would have an open and a close of the box which can be looked at as a single candle's open and close. If this gives you the equivalent of a half-decent-sized upper and lower wick-zone set up, then it gives you more options than sticking to only the box mid-line.

There is no right or wrong way here it's horses-for-courses and comes with a little experience running it. I trialled The Frankfurt Break for more than six months before running it live (while still working out the kinks) for another six. You get to see the looks that work better.

Don't abandon all your experience of reading price-action either. Look out for clues as to whether any move you are looking to get in on is counter-trend on the higher time-frames. The more you layer your overall trading experience into each method you run, the more successful you will become.
  • #19,052
  • Jun 20, 2017 1:05pm Jun 20, 2017 1:05pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Yep, you got it, with PH's caveat. I've said this before and it's true here, that this is actually easier to run than it is to try and keep track of it in your head and put down on paper, lol. I would again, though, always bear in mind the WZ aspect and not just the Mid-Line. As I have noted before, the Mid-Line entry strategy can be risky, as often price will pivot and twirl around the mid-line before making up its mind which way to go - and can as often than not, turn back on itself, as continue on. If you have gone in on a WZ entry, you...

Can you illustrate an example of what you're talking about by anychance on a chart?



And yes its alot easier to run rather than putting down on paper LOL
  • #19,053
  • Jun 20, 2017 1:24pm Jun 20, 2017 1:24pm
Quoting faatkumo
{quote} Can you illustrate an example of what you're talking about by anychance on a chart? And yes its alot easier to run rather than putting down on paper LOL
Lem pretty much has on the previous page in his response to me check it out
  • #19,054
  • Jun 20, 2017 1:29pm Jun 20, 2017 1:29pm
Quoting faatkumo
{quote} Three trades executed by the beginning of the box. Trade 1 Long Trade 2 Counter Sell Midpoint Then Trade 1 Closed at "Sell Trigger" (Low of H4) Trade 3 Counter Long at Midpoint We're now in our box with Trade 2 and Trade 3.... If Trade 2 & 3 were entered at the same exact line, isn't it break-even within the RedBox??

Can someone possibly confirm whether I'm right or wrong?
  • #19,055
  • Jun 20, 2017 1:35pm Jun 20, 2017 1:35pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Right, we need to get you back on the straight-and-narrow here. I know I didn't trade this today and it's sooooooooo fek'n easy after the fact but stick with me on this and hopefully it'll help - as a theory exercise if nothing else. I have stripped everything out and used a clean chart for this, with the set-up zone and the range high, low, box-WZ levels and mid-line hand drawn. First up, here's the wide-view including S+D (again, I know it's later but the zones we're looking at would have been there)... {image} Closer... {image} So first...


I got it, so instead of countering at MidPoint, you'd counter at the H4 Candle Body.

Makes alot of sense.

If your Counter Triggers at the body of the candle (end of wick zone as i understand it), what if price reverses as soon as it touches the counter trigger?
You hold onto it? Close it?
  • #19,056
  • Jun 20, 2017 1:47pm Jun 20, 2017 1:47pm
F.F.S.

On another note -no trading today -went for a day out on the Broads, boat trip with Mrs T. and lunch. Then Mrs T. bought a load of plants just before leaving for home. Just finished watering them in. Hope you all had a good day.

I see CAD dead zone did okay Lem
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #19,057
  • Jun 20, 2017 1:54pm Jun 20, 2017 1:54pm
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  • #19,058
  • Jun 20, 2017 3:35pm Jun 20, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting simtrad
{quote} Hi Claudia, Great results, but it takes confidence and a big account to sit through some of that drawdown. Love this way of trading though, only hope I can emulate it over the long term. You seem to exclusively trade afternoons and evenings and leave the London open alone, is there any particular reason for this with cable or just your preference? Thanks Simon
Hi Simon

Just finding the afternoons easier at the moment. No real reason.
  • #19,059
  • Edited 6:11pm Jun 20, 2017 3:47pm | Edited 6:11pm
I just finished some more stats! Very interesting stuff. I can definitely see how having this stuff will help in the future. So far today I have added....."how many pips price retraced before making TP. (not including complete reversals) I broke it down into 5 categories....20-25 pips, 25-30 pips, 30-35 pips, 35-40 pips and 40+ pips. Out of the 55 ranges of 20 pips or bigger in the last year only 4 times has price retraced more than 20 pips and then corrected course and reached our original TP. I am using 20 because 20 is going to be my Stationary SL if my 04-00 range happens to be larger then 20. The average retrace amongst all ranges was 6.91......I think -20 should be safe.

I also used the same break down of Box Ranges and also ran the stats of how often each range reached TP of +5 and +10 and how many times each range has had a complete range reversal.

.........so far so good with the stats...coming along nice!! THanks for the stats advice everyone!!
  • #19,060
  • Jun 20, 2017 4:36pm Jun 20, 2017 4:36pm
Quoting faatkumo
{quote} I got it, so instead of countering at MidPoint, you'd counter at the H4 Candle Body. Makes alot of sense. If your Counter Triggers at the body of the candle (end of wick zone as i understand it), what if price reverses as soon as it touches the counter trigger? You hold onto it? Close it?
Is that the counter trigger of the triggered counter or the trigger of the counter on the counter trigger?

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Sorry, couldn't resist it, lol...You hold onto it. Remember, the original fail is still running, so if price has now reversed, then that original one is gaining some pips back...jeez, I think ...
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