Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 952 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #19,021
  • Jun 20, 2017 6:11am Jun 20, 2017 6:11am
Quoting billytt
{quote} was going to say, we probably trade lot size the same according to bank roll.
i think i may split my test accounts 1% into fragments. so it would take the market really running me around for me to reach that kind of exposure.

at 0.5% like i am now, if i double up or counter 300% im already there + . this is where i think my balls are disapearing lol

i had a very good feeling that the after two fails on the frankenbreak that it would go for the MDR and it did, to the micro pip.

do you think this make sense bill?

although im going to make drastically less of a return. im going to be able to punch the trades around alot more which means being able to turn fails into fortune which should get me on an upward curve?
  • #19,022
  • Jun 20, 2017 6:16am Jun 20, 2017 6:16am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} i think i may split my test accounts 1% into fragments. so it would take the market really running me around for me to reach that kind of exposure. at 0.5% like i am now, if i double up or counter 300% im already there + . this is where i think my balls are disapearing lol i had a very good feeling that the after two fails on the frankenbreak that it would go for the MDR and it did, to the micro pip.
i trade lines and dont think where market might/will go.
But sometimes we have gut feelings and clues

edit, a bit like A/U right now, i wasnt happy with the 04-00 bar and left it,i said maybe the 08-00 bar could be traded off.
At the moment it is +6 on a short break, this would of got the 5. i do not normally trade this as a first choice but it can be used following a fail (next trigger maybe)
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,023
  • Edited 11:16am Jun 20, 2017 6:27am | Edited 11:16am
I was at work tonight at the start of the 04-00 break but looking at it now it fails some of my personal rules......first off with the range more than 50% larger than normal we have to take into consideration any "obstacles" that might be in our way and today there was a Daily Pivot Line and a 00 line and resistance. Too much in the way for me so I probably would have passed today.

Although my stats say that when the original trade fails and the opposite side is triggered......we have a 94.1% chance of getting +5 on the other side and 73.5% chance of getting +10........I will be looking to get +5 on the Low trigger.....
  • #19,024
  • Jun 20, 2017 6:34am Jun 20, 2017 6:34am
Quoting bojack34
I was at work tonight at the start of the 04-00 break but looking at it now it fails some of my personal rules......first off with the range more than 50% larger than normal we have to take into consideration any "obstacles" that might be in our way and today there was a Daily Pivot Line and a 00 line and resistance before the +5 TP on the high trigger. Too much in the way for me so I probably would have passed today. Although my stats say that when the original trade fails and the opposite side is triggered......we have a 94.1% chance of getting...
over what sort of sample size are these stats? 50 trades?
  • #19,025
  • Edited 7:14am Jun 20, 2017 6:36am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} over what sort of sample size are these stats? 50 trades?
it is every trading day from Last Friday to Jan 2 2017......so all of this year. I am doing these manually so it is taking me light years longer than billy to gather stats. I will get another year worth of stats on my days off this week.....or I will add some other stats to the year I have so far. I am also adding stats daily as I go.....keep them up to date.
  • #19,026
  • Jun 20, 2017 6:54am Jun 20, 2017 6:54am
AU 04-00 Break......price is hovering around the 00 line as I type but if price does happen to make it down to the LOW Trigger.......the LOW Trigger is also Yesterday's Low.....so if price breaks our Low Trigger I have a feeling it might go for Daily Range......at least +5 and a good chance of +10 also.
  • #19,027
  • Edited 8:38am Jun 20, 2017 7:18am | Edited 8:38am
Nearly mucked things up today by leaving it to the last minute before getting my ass in gear. I had four for-sure options and one possibly-maybe...

For sure:

UC - S (WZ)
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AU - L (WZ)
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UNok -S (WZ)
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XAUUSD - L (WZ)
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(You can see that I was so late on this one, I had to take the trade before I could grab the ''Set-Up'' screen-shot, lol)


Possibly-Maybe:

NU - L (WZ)
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  • #19,028
  • Jun 20, 2017 7:26am Jun 20, 2017 7:26am
I was still faffing around with the charts, grabbing the ones to post above, when the bell rang and I had to make a call. I was sitting on Gold and so that was the one that got the nod - pure chance.

As it turned out, it went fine. Took the long into the body from the WZ move.

XAUUSD
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Of the others, UC was a bomb, as it just kept on pushing on and bust through the upper zone, never looking like turning, while all the others did as had been expected.

USDCAD
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AUDUSD
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USDNOK
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NZDUSD
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Got away with this one but that's a few times lately I have cut it just a tad too fine. It's going to bite me soon, if I don't get my finger out.
  • #19,029
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:26am Jun 20, 2017 8:26am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} looool no wonder ive been given the runaround on this trade. wasnt around for the first low break, so i thought the high would be good money, taken the high, failed. now im in a counter with an extra lot tryna bag +5 that way. oh the joys. i have been seriously battered since i started this test account lol. i dno what to do, i feel like im jus making pennies and then getting taken for pounds every other day! weird about the spreads though lem, mines been a constant .4 edit: something told me it was going to slow down and retrace abit, so...
Right, we need to get you back on the straight-and-narrow here.

I know I didn't trade this today and it's sooooooooo fek'n easy after the fact but stick with me on this and hopefully it'll help - as a theory exercise if nothing else.

I have stripped everything out and used a clean chart for this, with the set-up zone and the range high, low, box-WZ levels and mid-line hand drawn.

First up, here's the wide-view including S+D (again, I know it's later but the zones we're looking at would have been there)...
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Closer...
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So first things first, we see that we have a pretty solid area below us but there is still room to move, so a short would be fine. As such, I agree that we would take the first break down. This, however, as you found, fails.

Now, as Billy has just said above, from this moment on, we are trading lines and not thinking about where the market will go or will do...

Yep. We are back at the WZ concept doo-dah again.

We now have two options (neither of which include waiting for price to reverse all the way through and getting in at the top edge). We can either counter at the lower WZ edge or we can counter at the Mid-Line. This is dependant on the size of the ''candle''.

Here, it's a pretty small ''candle''. I'd be more inclined to use the Mid-Line.

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This way, we are bagging pips before we even look at the next trigger outside. The key to these is you don't let them go bad. You take bites and more bites, even if it goes back to one pip, bag it, go in again, bag it, go in again. This is similar in concept to Billy's retrace-trades. Eating away at the loss from the original break.

In your case here today, the break North, also failed. You were negative again immediately and once again (I assume without going back and reading it all again) waiting to go back in on the Southern edge...but guess what. We don't do that. Instead, we do what we just did on the way up (those ones are long closed and the pips bagged, remember) and get in on the way back down...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now, we have got some bounty in the bag and that could do you for the session on FB. However, remember the S+D zones? Course you do. Well, that is screaming out to me that we are going to bounce long big-time at some point soon. So now we really are surfing...and sure enough, the big wave comes along...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We'd look to get in on that as early as possible and we are treating this as a pure WZ entry all the way, so we go in as price leaves the lower zone.

Then we go get some lunch...

Hope that helps a little. You are obviously becoming frustrated by this now and it all comes from that one aspect of your entries. Once you reboot and reset your thinking, it will all come good again, trust me.
  • #19,030
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:29am Jun 20, 2017 8:29am
Quoting billytt
My Dax 07-55 bar was a fail (i think) i have not actually looked at it
Yep, Billy, it failed, before turning and going on in the opposite direction we had wanted.
  • #19,031
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:32am Jun 20, 2017 8:32am
Quoting billytt
{quote} A/U range is 31 which is not too bad, but i don't like the look of it lol. If it triggers it is a trade, depending on when/if this happens i may leave it.. The 08-00 bar might be a better option maybe going into us open
Thanks, Billy. I left it. Waited on the DZ. Haven't looked back at it, so dunno' what (if anything) eventually happened.
  • #19,032
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:35am Jun 20, 2017 8:35am
Quoting StudyFX
{quote} {quote} Hmm... my spreads weren't that bad either. I got in the FB earlier and managed to hit TP just now. EURGBP FB +16.4 pips (-6.4-6.2*2+8.8*4) Shorted at FB low. Price reversed. Closed the short at FB high and added 2 buys. Price reversed. Closed the buys and added 4 sells. Targeted 7.9 pips below FB low based on S+D. The bid price hit my target and reversed back up. I was like . But price eventually went down lol. EURGBP M5 {image}
I know you are doing your own take on this but I'd suggest taking a look at my post to PH above, as you would benefit from it as well.
  • #19,033
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:42am Jun 20, 2017 8:42am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I know you are doing your own take on this but I'd suggest taking a look at my post to PH above, as you would benefit from it as well.
Here is a weeks worth of selling. One loser - just showing can be done once again. But you know that.
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  • #19,034
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:43am Jun 20, 2017 8:43am
I see I have a ton of messages to catch up on - sorry about that, guys. I will get on that over the rest of the day.
  • #19,035
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:49am Jun 20, 2017 8:49am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Here is a weeks worth of selling. One loser - just showing can be done once again. But you know that. {image}

it can be, I'm training myself again on it. Last time the problem was my initial positions were too big for my account..
  • #19,036
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:50am Jun 20, 2017 8:50am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Here is a weeks worth of selling. One loser - just showing can be done once again. But you know that. {image}
nice one Claudia, we are going to need a bigger page shortly.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #19,037
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:54am Jun 20, 2017 8:54am
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} it can be, I'm training myself again on it. Last time the problem was my initial positions were too big for my account..
Take it slow take the wins and let the account fund itself.
  • #19,038
  • Jun 20, 2017 8:55am Jun 20, 2017 8:55am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Right, we need to get you back on the straight-and-narrow here. I know I didn't trade this today and it's sooooooooo fek'n easy after the fact but stick with me on this and hopefully it'll help - as a theory exercise if nothing else. I have stripped everything out and used a clean chart for this, with the set-up zone and the range high, low, box-WZ levels and mid-line hand drawn. First up, here's the wide-view including S+D (again, I know it's later but the zones we're looking at would have been there)... {image} Closer... {image} So first...
thank you very much for this carefully sculpted response.

well basically what happened for me is, i had the luxury of not being around for the first break (the low) so i was very much inclined to take the high break which then failed. i then added another lot ontop of my counter, which in hindsight was the perfect thing to do. E/G hadnt completed the modest daily range yet and it went on to fulfill that boundary and i could of taken 10+ points on it erasing my loss entirely.

but heres where i have begun feeling like this level of % per pip is hindering me because i genuinely didnt have the sack to the wait it out so i took it out .

going to thoroughly study the contents of this post you have provided me with now!
  • #19,039
  • Jun 20, 2017 10:13am Jun 20, 2017 10:13am
That's my day. Wine bar time.
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  • #19,040
  • Jun 20, 2017 10:24am Jun 20, 2017 10:24am
Is this a possible way to work out trades that go sour?
In another words, does this work?
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