Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 948 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #18,941
  • Jun 16, 2017 1:31pm Jun 16, 2017 1:31pm
Hi folks - hope everybody had fun today. I'll go read the posts I missed after I post these up.

No trading after the DAX this morning for me as expected.

Also, for the guys who are waiting on some info from me via pm / email, whatever, I have some real-life stuff needing attention just now but I will try and get back to you some time over the weekend. Apologies.

Anyway, no idea what did or didn't happen here today but for-the-record, here's how the charts stand as of 19:21 uk time...

EURJPY
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USDCAD
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AUDUSD
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USDNOK
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GBPNZD
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  • #18,942
  • Jun 16, 2017 1:33pm Jun 16, 2017 1:33pm
AUDNZD
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GBPUSD
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CADJPY
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NZDUSD
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NZDJPY
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  • #18,943
  • Jun 16, 2017 1:35pm Jun 16, 2017 1:35pm
XAUUSD
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USDJPY
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GBPJPY
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GER30
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OILUSD
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  • #18,944
  • Jun 16, 2017 1:39pm Jun 16, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting StudyFX
This was an interesting trade... AUDUSD DZ +30.8 pips (Yesterday's trade finished today) (-8.6+14.0+14.6-8.0*4+4.1*4+6.6*4) Shorted at DZ low. Price went back up. Countered at DZ mid. Price went back down. Closed the buy and added a sell at DZ low. Price didn't break the DZ again THE WHOLE DAY. At NY close, price spiked all the way down roughly 14 pips below DZ low within seconds. For a second I was happy about all that positive slippage. BUT, the spread widened like crazy during those seconds and triggered my counter buy pending order...
It's like you signed up for an accelerated course in DZ trading - it's literally throwing everything you will ever see at you in the space of a few days, lol. Well done.
  • #18,945
  • Jun 16, 2017 2:22pm Jun 16, 2017 2:22pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} 3 trades running, 1 short and 2 long.. Nothing to do with my method but i am currently scalping short positions to relieve boredom, lol. What ever happens with the 3 trades it will be sorted next week. edit, with the shorts/scalps i am compounding, i got first scalp in and now using brokers money...
ALL money in your account is YOUR MONEY and not the broker's!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #18,946
  • Edited Jun 17, 2017 6:12am Jun 16, 2017 5:43pm | Edited Jun 17, 2017 6:12am
@ Billy........When trading IB's what time frames do you consider looking at? Are IB's on a smaller time frame like M15 for example......do they have any stats behind them like the Daily IB does? I guess what I'm asking is how small of a time frame should I consider trading IB's on? The reason I ask is because from reading past posts you've mention trading H4 IB's. Obv the thread was was started using a Daily Candle and you mention H4 IB's......I wasn't sure where to stop.
  • #18,947
  • Jun 16, 2017 6:04pm Jun 16, 2017 6:04pm
@Claudia......when price reaches the previous day's High / Low and "breaks" thru......do you look for price to continue on to possibly make Daily Range........or do you look for price to bounce back and reverse normally? Also, do you wait for the candle the is "breaking thru" to CLOSE before you make decide to trade? For example the "Cross Over" and "Close Over" method...........A "cross over" candle "crosses over" but reverses and closes on the same side of the line...........A "Close Over" candle "closes" on the other side of the line. Can you maybe elaborate on this a little bit. ( Billy I would love to hear your opinion on this as well ) Thanks Claudia!!!
  • #18,948
  • Jun 16, 2017 6:46pm Jun 16, 2017 6:46pm
@Billy........Lets say High Trigger is broke and retraces before +5.....it goes all the way down and tiggers the Low as well..............when the Low Trigger happens I will put in 2 Trades......the first for the +5 ( double lot size on this one ...optional )......and let the second trade for +20 or daily range.........NOW.......let say that the 2nd counter trade ( two trades ) ALSO FAILS........now we have our trade in LIMBO waiting on the next day set of 04-00 triggers.......NOW...........we are now trading the next day's set of triggers and the HIGH is triggered AND IT REVERSES AGAIN.........now we have a trade in Limbo and our 2nd counter trade the next day has ALSO FAILED..........now we are waiting on the opposite side trigger to repeat the whole process over again......BUT how do we approach the 2nd counter trade at the opposite trigger? (do we have to play it safe at this point because we are in so deep already or do we TRUST the process and put in TWO MORE trades at the opposite trigger just like I did for counter trade #1..........first for +5 ( double lot size optional ) and second for +20 possibly Daily Range ??????? I hope I explained myself correctly. Thanks Billy!!!
  • #18,949
  • Jun 16, 2017 6:53pm Jun 16, 2017 6:53pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} excellent result, I made 2k off 5 pips earlier
My favorite post of the entire thread!
  • #18,950
  • Jun 17, 2017 3:12am Jun 17, 2017 3:12am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} ALL money in your account is YOUR MONEY and not the broker's!
Loool oh dear not the house money argument!
  • #18,951
  • Edited 6:13am Jun 17, 2017 4:39am | Edited 6:13am
I started keeping stats on AU 04-00....So far I have stats dating back to January 2 2017.......Here they are the stats I'm keeping ( no spread )

Range Size
If price reached +5 pips without a counter
If price reached +10 pips without a counter
If price retraced before it reached +5
If price retraced before it reached +10
If price retraced more than 50% of the range and then bounced back and reached either +5 or +10 without the need of a counter
If price retraced and breached opposite side trigger, triggering a counter trade
If counter trade got +5 pips
If counter trade got +10 pips
If counter trade got +20 pips
If counter trade was held over until next day
If it was a really bad day and there was High Impact Red Flag News


After all that being said here are a couple of quick stats about the +5 pips from 1/2/2017 to 6/16/2017


Price reached +5 pips without a retrace or a counter 78.6% of the time ( no spread )
Price reached +10 pips without a retrace or a counter 63.24% of the time ( no spread )


EDIT: The overall success rate for Counter Trades was in the upper 90's%.....with only a couple of counter trades that had to be held over until the next day trigger and only 1 that had to be held over for 2 days (only because the first day no trigger was broker therefor no trade that day).....there was one or two that I wasn't totally sure what to do or how it would have played out.
  • #18,952
  • Jun 17, 2017 1:19pm Jun 17, 2017 1:19pm
Quoting bojack34
@Claudia......when price reaches the previous day's High / Low and "breaks" thru......do you look for price to continue on to possibly make Daily Range........or do you look for price to bounce back and reverse normally? Also, do you wait for the candle the is "breaking thru" to CLOSE before you make decide to trade? For example the "Cross Over" and "Close Over" method...........A "cross over" candle "crosses over" but reverses and closes on the same side of the line...........A "Close Over" candle "closes" on the other side of the line. Can you...
No idea what you talking about.
  • #18,953
  • Edited 2:23pm Jun 17, 2017 1:45pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} No idea what you talking about.
Other than my cross over and close over description I was talking directly about one of your past posts where you talk about when price breaks the previous day's High or Low. I was just trying to figure out how you react to price breaking the previous day's High or Low........... nevermind it's ok...........thanks for your help as always.
  • #18,954
  • Jun 17, 2017 2:02pm Jun 17, 2017 2:02pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Other than my cross over and close over description I was talking directly about one of your past posts where you talk about when price breaks the previous day's High or Low. I was just trying to figure out how you react to price breaking the previous day's High or Low.......but nevermind...thanks for your help anyway.
Sure u dnt mean the daily pivot that's what Claudia works with
  • #18,955
  • Jun 17, 2017 2:15pm Jun 17, 2017 2:15pm
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Sure u dnt mean the daily pivot that's what Claudia works with
Yeah I meant AFTER price breaks daily pivot and continues towards the previous daily's high / low...........I was wanting to know how she reacts when price gets to that point. I'm sure the whole cross over close over thing made it confusing (my mistake).....that came from another galaxy.
  • #18,956
  • Jun 17, 2017 9:48pm Jun 17, 2017 9:48pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} ALL money in your account is YOUR MONEY and not the broker's!
sorry but i beg to differ, a casino gives out free drinks/rooms, shops give out loss leaders, entrepreneurs invest.
Same with me, i start off with X amount and if i end up with X+ that is me with a gain. It doesnt matter if i give some back we have casualties. I know how to play my game.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,957
  • Jun 17, 2017 9:48pm Jun 17, 2017 9:48pm
Quoting bojack34
@ Billy........When trading IB's what time frames do you consider looking at? Are IB's on a smaller time frame like M15 for example......do they have any stats behind them like the Daily IB does? I guess what I'm asking is how small of a time frame should I consider trading IB's on? The reason I ask is because from reading past posts you've mention trading H4 IB's. Obv the thread was was started using a Daily Candle and you mention H4 IB's......I wasn't sure where to stop.
Inside bars are daily time frame and sometimes 4 hour bar
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,958
  • Jun 17, 2017 9:53pm Jun 17, 2017 9:53pm
[quote=bojack34;9988148]@Billy........Lets say High Trigger is broke and retraces before +5.....it goes all the way down and tiggers the Low as well..............when the Low Trigger happens I will put in 2 Trades......the first for the +5 ( double lot size on this one ...optional )......and let the second trade for +20 or daily range.........NOW.......let say that the 2nd counter trade ( two trades ) ALSO FAILS........now we have our trade in LIMBO waiting on the next day set of 04-00 triggers.......NOW...........we are now trading the next day's set of triggers and the HIGH is triggered AND IT RE

A trade fails and we counter, that too can fail.
we make a different trade on a different trigger or day. This too can fail. some counters can then cancel each other out (not always) we can also use extra %%% we make on previous trades to off set any losses
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,959
  • Jun 17, 2017 9:55pm Jun 17, 2017 9:55pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} My favorite post of the entire thread!
i hit it hard and with compound
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,960
  • Jun 17, 2017 9:59pm Jun 17, 2017 9:59pm
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Loool oh dear not the house money argument!
house always has an edge so therefore if you use their money they will get it back if you keep gambling like a lot of idiots do.
What i do is make my own edge, dont forget scalping is not my main trade method so i have different rules.
i am only commenting Pip not being annoying lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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