Something more about UJ, this is the scenario we could expect...
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- #663
- May 17, 2017 3:13am May 17, 2017 3:13am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
EURUSD Up next, Fiber. Now Fiber is setting up higher highs/higher lows. We have a MS shift with our LT low @ 1.0340-60 roughly as shown by the arrows. What followed was a failure to go higher high just yet, but after price retraced down and formed a higher low, the next wave up took the high. Pullback ensued, another higher low and up to a higher high. Now I was expecting this gap to fill before more upside, but french elections drove EU high and fast, reaching 1.1014 - our Fib level. Apart from that, nothing is holding it; our previous support-turned-resistance...
- #668
- Jun 15, 2017 3:39am Jun 15, 2017 3:39am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
{quote} Thanks for the fast response. I am still having difficulty in deciding on a directional bias. On a daily chart (of for example USDX) one could observe, say, a down trend. However, 30% of the days will still be counter trend. Does this mean that one should actually reassess the trend on a lower timeframe and take positions in that reassessed direction knowing that they are counter trend?
A variant on this is the Three Ducks approach, where you look first at, for instance, the Daily and where price is in relation to an ema, then drop to the H4 and do the same. Once - and only once - they line up, then go to the H1. Once that confirms, look to enter on pullbacks on the m15.
That's incredibly simplistic and you could probably devote an entire thread to finding a reliable directional bias indicator (as well as Three Ducks) but overall, you get the idea.
By the way, if you ever crack this, get in touch, eh, lol! Meanwhile, I'll keep on looking
- #669
- Jun 15, 2017 6:22am Jun 15, 2017 6:22am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
{quote} Hi carling. I think finding a reliable way to assess a directional bias is one of the hardest things to get right. It really depends on the time-frame you are working from. IMO, looking at the Daily and working (entering) on the 30 min is useless. For me, the highest you should go up is a factor of one, if you will. So looking at 30 min, go to H1. For H1, look at H4 etc. A variant on this is the Three Ducks approach, where you look first at, for instance, the Daily and where price is in relation to an ema, then drop to the H4 and do the...
What's more, I already explained how market movers and market makers use D1 and higher for their trading
In the examples I have previously shown, you see me talk about how let's say price would react at point A, only to move back to point B, before retreating to point C. What I do there is establish a bias - if it's bouncing higher from point A, I will be going long until it reaches point B, then I will be shorting it to point C. Do you see where I'm going with this?
- #670
- Jun 15, 2017 7:32am Jun 15, 2017 7:32am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
{quote} I beg to differ. The whole premise for us to look at Daily as our bias-maker is that sustainable trends are seen there. If you read the thread thoroughly, you will understand what I mean. We look for key elements on a D1 chart, before dropping down to our intraday chart (m15 or m5 for me) with an expectation price is supposed to do something. We position ourselves in certain timeframes throughout the day - mostly along with market opens. If you were to look at the hourly while trading m5, you'd just see it a little bit more smoothed. What's...
I think my own methods differ so much from yours here that it's a bit apples-and-oranges. As such, both ways work. Mine for me and yours for you.
''What's more, I already explained how market movers and market makers use D1 and higher for their trading
''Yes, you did and as an ex-Prop Trader, I get that just fine, cheers.
I'll just be off back to my own sand-box
- #671
- Jun 17, 2017 5:27am Jun 17, 2017 5:27am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
{quote} Oh yeah, I have no problems understanding this. It serves me right for thread-surfing while bored and sticking my nose in on a whim, lol. Sorry, about that - feel free to delete the post if you feel it just confuses the issue. I think my own methods differ so much from yours here that it's a bit apples-and-oranges. As such, both ways work. Mine for me and yours for you. ''What's more, I already explained how market movers and market makers use D1 and higher for their trading
I'm not deleting anything, everybody is entitled to an opinion - especially if what you do works for you. I could never get on-board with the whole MA trading business. I've tried a couple of models, but it's just not my thing. I do use a couple for my stock trading, buuuut technicals aren't really as important as they are in forex.That being said, we focus on horizontal S/R and S&D zones here. I am sure they offer much greater precision in trading than any dynamic S/R (trendlines, MAs...) Think of it as two separate steps, if you will: analyzing market environments is the first step, done on a Daily/H4 most of the time and then entering with a specific method on a lower tf.
- #672
- Jun 23, 2017 9:45am Jun 23, 2017 9:45am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
Looking to eventually start shorting EU... Game hasn't changed 
- #680
- Jul 26, 2017 6:44pm Jul 26, 2017 6:44pm
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: lost in the void | 2,977 Posts
Nice thread, interesting trading approach. Will read through