Over the past few years, I've been hanging out here at FF. I've particularly analyzed two systems (or theories of systems), collected statistics, researched how prices behave under certain situations, and so on. Despite conducting sometimes intensive research, I haven't been able to consistently make profits. As a result, I've taken a step back and considered starting anew.

Throughout the years, I've consistently observed that the way prices move is not significantly different from random walks. For example, the expected profit is strongly correlated with the holding time/trading duration. This apparent randomness of the market also contributes to why it's challenging for me (and probably the other 95% of people hanging out here at FF) to consistently achieve profits: The risk-reward ratio seems to always be inversely correlated with the probability of winning.

Furthermore, over the years, I haven't found any significant added value in indicators (except for smoothing out price trends). Therefore, I want to go back to the basics of trading and solely focus on reference points (such as prices of an asset from 0, X, Y, and Z minutes ago or the OHLC of a higher rolling candle) in my learning process.

If the

As I personally want to grow through this question and thread, I kindly ask the

Don't worry, I'm not expecting one-on-one mentoring here. However, I'm particularly interested in two things: the logic and theory

Throughout the years, I've consistently observed that the way prices move is not significantly different from random walks. For example, the expected profit is strongly correlated with the holding time/trading duration. This apparent randomness of the market also contributes to why it's challenging for me (and probably the other 95% of people hanging out here at FF) to consistently achieve profits: The risk-reward ratio seems to always be inversely correlated with the probability of winning.

Furthermore, over the years, I haven't found any significant added value in indicators (except for smoothing out price trends). Therefore, I want to go back to the basics of trading and solely focus on reference points (such as prices of an asset from 0, X, Y, and Z minutes ago or the OHLC of a higher rolling candle) in my learning process.

If the

__and__**early Japanese rice traders****, it leads me to one conclusion:**__tape readers__were able to consistently make profits using only key price levels**trading with reference prices alone must be possible!**As I personally want to grow through this question and thread, I kindly ask the

__pro-traders__among you__who would consider themselves profitable and who master trading using few reference levels__(not necessarily relying on charts themselves) to help me out! Thank you in advance!Don't worry, I'm not expecting one-on-one mentoring here. However, I'm particularly interested in two things: the logic and theory

- behind entries and exits when making trading decisions solely based on reference prices,
- and how one can escape the trade-off between risk-reward (RR) and the probability of winning. For example, how can one expect a higher probability of winning than 0.5 with a 1:1 RR ratio?

Thanks a lot in advance for taking the time and drop some hints here and there! Have a nice discussion everyone!