Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart

Apple inc. update.

According to the last Apple move we have made trading decision to SHORT AAPL shares. Time - 11 january 2017 20-15 GMT, at level 119.89 USD per 1 share.

Price has not reached our target level - the end of wave "a", near 124 dollars. The last wave 5 of the last wave "c" shows all signs of end and looks complete. This way is valid, price has tried to reach the target, but failed, however wave "c" has climbed close enough.
Next possibility, that the last wave 5 of wave "c" is not over yet and we have seen its first part. In this case price will go on further and we shall track our position to avoid loss. In the case of big move up we just close open SHORT, wait for the last wave 5 to end itself and reopen SHORT once again. But we do think, that wave "c" is already over.
Wave B is ending, we shall keep our position open until the end of the big wave C down. First target is near 82 usd. We continue to track next Apple moves.

Good Luck with it -- I'm not much of a Elliott Wave guy, but it works for some people. Apple is one where they will have a tough time getting growth out of the businesses they are in, but on the flip side, their strong cash flow generation and low valuation make shorting difficult for me. Their "ecosystem" has so many people locked in that absolutely "need" to upgrade every year or two that I don't see that stopping over the intermediate term. Depends on how long you want to hold the short... you'll also be short the dividend and have to pay to borrow the shares. So to me, I think there are easier pickings out there.

But again, Good Luck!

Here's one I posted over at TradingView -- HACK!

Like the breakout here. Not surprising really -- Hacking has (ahem) been in the news a little lately. The fees on this ETF are a little high, but it's targeted exposure to a certain sector that should do well in the coming months/years. Consider this a long-term holding. Not a home-run trade, just a nice & steady holding. If one didn't have as much conviction, could put a stop below $26.60ish. I honestly think a healthy pullback could give you another opportunity to add-on here.

Just Do it.

How obvious do you want it? Square INC is the most promising stock rn. Proof, just read 5 minutes of the latest 10-Q and the effect it had

The chart looks great, but always hard to value these early stage companies... Massive revenue growth, but still no earnings... I guess did they mention in the last 5mins of the conf. call their path to profitability & margin expansion? What did they say on the call?

No argument though -- that is a nice looking chart!!

I posted a Nike Chart a while back. Hasn't done a whole lot. I see it this way now. Can use a tight stop to play for the next leg up. They are buying back stock, have a 30%+ ROE, and a brand like no other. I don't own yet, but am watching closely.

(side note, amazing how you can manipulate trendlines to tell you anything you want...)



Alternatively, if you see this breaking down, you can buy puts and/or strangles on this for next to nothing given how low volatility is.

NKE not triggering so here are some other charts I found interesting this weekend.

Here's one for the weekend. $38 is the trigger here on $FLIR. Stop around $33/34area. Depends on risk tolerance.

I'm already long a little but look to add above $38.

Here are 5 charts that caught my eye this morning. Given where the market is... EVERYTHING looks like it's breaking out but I like the patterns on these the best. not as over-extended as a lot of other things i'm seeing out there:

One of the cool things you can do on TradingView is create custom spreads/formula based charts. Here's a simple average of two stocks that I own where I'm anticipating a breakout. I own both, but they are basically very similar companies and move in lock-step. Owning one is like owning the other...
AER (AerCap) and AL (AirLease)

Here's some charts from yesterday. Be aware, i pulled these on a Wednesday, so on a weekly chart that means the last candle is only half-done. So all i'm saying is, these might look a lot different today. Do your own homework...

Well, no matter how beautiful a chart looks, you can still lose money on it. FLIR has quickly become my largest unrealized loss. Total fake-out breakout. However when I bought it, I did pair it with a $37-strike put, so my losses will be limited as that put is now totally in the money. Still though, very disappointing.

Here are my current positions for anyone who cares in declining order of size (largest listed first) with a few notes.

FLIR (paired with $37-strike puts), clearly this one didn't work out, but the puts give me time to decide what to do.
AGCO - New position this week
CL
ABBV - Old position finally moving higher
AVB
HACK
GIS - Takeover candidate/income play
AGX - Been long this for a while, but may be time to sell, the magic appears to be lost.
NKE - This is also paired with puts ($50 strike). Another chart I tried to force...
FDX
STWD
NATI
PI - New position in a company that is poised to benefit from AMZN's purchase of WFM
EZU
AL - may increase size on this & AER. They look poised to move higher to my eye.
AER
FNMA
I also have some RSX Puts

So if it's not obvious, most of my trades have been longs. As the market continues to look pretty toppy (see QQQ chart below) I would hope anyone reading this would post any good short-trades they have.

Shoulda bought WYN 2mo ago when i posted it. Still thinking about it though. Along with these other two... No position (yet) in any of them...

Hopefully this isn't just me being stubborn, but I like the idea of adding on here to these trades (or entering for the first time if you used a tight stop previously).

The nice thing about pairing stocks with small options trades is that it does give you some flexibility on how you exit and when.

So if this pullback continues, i have my eye on these charts. (not sure how many I can upload to a single post) Interesting that so many financials are popping up, especially w/ the 10yr Treasury rallying down to the 2.15-2.20 area last few weeks.

Disclaimer, these are weekly charts posted on a Tuesday, so the final bar hasn't been completed obviously. Also, do your own research...you never know, i might be drunk when i post these!

Happy trading!

Fresh from vacation. Two items.

One... NKE. Hell Yeah.

And two, got some alerts on the home builders. Interesting charts.

$DHI


$PHM

Interestingly some of the agriculture commodities are probably the better returns over the last few weeks, but I own this one which is connected.

One more area of congestion to get through...

$AGCO

Can't remember if I posted this one earlier, but I went long this at right around $56 today.

$XYL