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  • #11,221
  • Jun 13, 2017 9:35pm Jun 13, 2017 9:35pm
asx 200 ..1 min took a couple shorts..stop above mavs.. got some longs going up at open
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  • #11,222
  • Jun 13, 2017 9:38pm Jun 13, 2017 9:38pm
Quoting danc
asx 200 ..1 min took a couple shorts..stop above mavs.. got some longs going up at open {image}
Hi Dancs

Thats one cool looking chart there my friend, I can see that all you have to do is wait for price to clearly show itself either side and you are away, very nice, but what exactly is it???

Is it a set of MAs or just one indicator??
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #11,223
  • Jun 13, 2017 9:45pm Jun 13, 2017 9:45pm
Good afternoon All,
Have been reading up on all the refinements from the last couple of months. Great work by all.
Attached is a Range chart of the ASX200, with Clive's LWMA, CCi and best wishes as well as Dave's MML. I had been trading them exclusively till now; with much success, yet like many of us have been looking for the 'missing link'. Dave I use 2048 as my MML period, it thus uses 2 days worth of data; averages out consolidations and trending days, also gives a better target to aim for.

Look how the signal at today's open was perfect, had a think at 5800; halfway to 5/8th's line and then went to target.
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Manfred
  • #11,224
  • Jun 13, 2017 9:48pm Jun 13, 2017 9:48pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Dancs Thats one cool looking chart there my friend, I can see that all you have to do is wait for price to clearly show itself either side and you are away, very nice, but what exactly is it??? Is it a set of MAs or just one indicator??
ha ha..just yr stuff Clive..bit of an over kill..closed possies minus 4.. and 2 got 30 going up this morning
  • #11,225
  • Jun 13, 2017 10:05pm Jun 13, 2017 10:05pm
I will keep it simple next.... Clive.. will use.. your 10....and 35.. and add a 20....reason for 20 is cause i have all ways used it..white broken line is day or week or mth open and pink line is monthly pivot line based on previous 12 mths..starting end of every month..jus tmy own stuff.. not saying it works.. more of a comfort thing..
  • #11,226
  • Jun 14, 2017 2:14am Jun 14, 2017 2:14am
Quoting manfredg
Good afternoon All, Have been reading up on all the refinements from the last couple of months. Great work by all. Attached is a Range chart of the ASX200, with Clive's LWMA, CCi and best wishes as well as Dave's MML. I had been trading them exclusively till now; with much success, yet like many of us have been looking for the 'missing link'. Dave I use 2048 as my MML period, it thus uses 2 days worth of data; averages out consolidations and trending days, also gives a better target to aim for. Look how the signal at today's open was perfect, had...
Hi Manfredg my friend, glad to see you stuck with the use of Murrey always thought that you would master it and so glad you have, great example chart as usual, I look in from time to time and glad to see the interest here as picked up a little after a long time of in activity, me well always wish Clive and the thread well but I spend my time now on another thread still with my old faithful Murrey but there as been a chart pattern spotted that's become very interesting and profitable, admit on a much bigger timeframe, the guy that runs the thread (Mastermind) like Clive is very well respected and very keen on all aspects of Murrey, so I will leave it at that and wish you good luck with your trading but it seems that with your plan and style its just a matter of good money-management and keep taking the trades as they come.
All the best
Dave
  • #11,227
  • Jun 15, 2017 10:11am Jun 15, 2017 10:11am
This is today's ES e-mini. Here is what you're seeing:

It shows 400 Tick chart on thinkorswim . . . which will be different than a 400 tick chart on Ninja or anywhere else. I use a 1600 and a 400 tick chart side by side. It creates much smoother price action than 5 min and 1 min. You can't use tick charts on Forex but Renko and Range Bars can be used.

It also uses Heiken-Ashi bars. White is a bullish bar, red a bearish bar.

I've never been a fan of them because you get a false impression of where you are when you go to buy or sell. But HA bars are awesome VISUALLY. What I do is add a 1 period Close SMA to HA . . . those are the blue dots. That allows me to see where the Bid is.

I use trend lines on the 8 pd CCI. I learned about this technique years ago from Woodie's CCI chatroom. I don't think most of their stuff works but the trend line break (TLB) is a good idea.

Then, of course, there's the magnificent 35 WMA.

OK, so you put it all together.

STEP 1 For a Long, I look to see that Higher TF is up (HA candles are white). You can also use a MACD on HTF. I no longer do. The HA bars are enough.

STEP 2 For a long, I look to see that Lower Time Frame (LTF) is above 35 WMA.

STEP 3 On LTF, look for CCI to pull below -100. HA candles on LTF will be mostly red. HA candles on HTF remain white. I will accept a red candle on HTF but I want to see mostly white candles.

STEP 4 Draw trend line on CCI on LTF

STEP 5 Go Long when HA bars on LTF turn white AND 8 CCI on LTF breaks above trend line.
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  • #11,228
  • Jun 15, 2017 10:22am Jun 15, 2017 10:22am
Showing 1600 tick with MACD on left side, and 400 tick on right side. Yellow arrows on 1600 tick (left) show you where two lower entries are.

What this technique does is allow you to jump on the ES with tiny, tiny risk . . . often 1 to 1.25 point ($50 to $62.50).

GIVING CREDIT .. . . I forgot to add that Nikos Mermigas is my major inspiration for using HA bars to "see" pullbacks . . . but of course, Clive and his 35 WMA is my inspiration for this technique overall. Mermigas also introduced me to the idea that when you see pullbacks well above the 35 WMA on the HTF, what you're seeing is strong momentum.
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  • #11,229
  • Jun 15, 2017 8:05pm Jun 15, 2017 8:05pm
2 GOOD posts, really like Tline on CCI bar.. just snipped 10 out of udjy using it
  • #11,230
  • Jun 16, 2017 8:55am Jun 16, 2017 8:55am
Good job DANC! Only two rules in the jungle:

Rule #1 Losses bad . . . profits good.
Rule #2 See Rule #1

The Mighty CCI . . . .

What really drew me to Clive's method is his combination of the 35 WMA and the 8 pd CCI.

A lot of folks don't understand exactly what the CCI does, so I'd like to explain something about it and maybe that will introduce you to another way of pulling money out of the market.

The basic formula of the CCI is very simple: CCI = (Typical Price - 20-period SMA of TP) / (.015 x Mean Deviation)

Typical Price (TP) = (High + Low + Close)/3

There is no magic. All the CCI does is show you how far the TP is above or below a simple moving average of the TP.

In my example below, the 8 period CCI is at the bottom. The white dot is the TP. The white line is an 8 period SMA of the TP.

So in my example below, at Point B, the TP has gone slightly below the white line (8 pd SMA of TP). And the CCI has gone slightly below 0. That's all there is to the CCI. Very simple. In theory, the TP is the EQUILIBRIUM POINT for the bar. (Please remember that these are HA bars, not the real deal.) So an 8 period CCI is measuring EQUILIBRIUM over 8 periods.

Look at the example again, this time thinking about EQUILIBRIUM.

At Point A, the TP rose far away from its 8 period equilibrium. Then at Point B, price RETURNED to its 8 period equilibrium.

This is one way of understand price action . . . you measure equilibrium over a certain number of bars and you observe price push away from it and return . . . push away and return . . . push away and return . . .

So if the thing you're trading is generally UP and price returns to equilibrium . . . is that a possible entry?

It certainly can be.

But you have to apply common sense. At the start of a trend (let's say it's up) the Bulls and Bears disagree strongly so price is directional. A return to equilibrium will usually be followed by a move away from equilibrium. But as the trend matures, the Bulls and Bears begin to agree on price so price tends to hang around equilibrium more.

The Return To Equilibrium entry is good at the beginning . . . not so much at the end . . . of a trend.

If this is all new to you, consider reading about the CCI Zero Line Reject Trade. Just remember that not all ZLs are created equal. (This is why ZLRs as practiced in Woodie's CCI Club failed so often.) You always have to apply common sense to your indicators. Towards the end of a trend, price will hang around equilibrium and offer you less opportunity.
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  • #11,231
  • Jun 16, 2017 9:26am Jun 16, 2017 9:26am
So . . . . just how greedy are you?

Do you want to pull even more money from the market using Clive's basic indicator set up?

Then consider what I call WITH THE TREND DIVERGENCE. It goes by many names.

Let's say the thing you're trading is UP.

Price makes Low #1

A little later it makes Low #2

Now Low #2 is a higher low. But when you look at your 8 period CCI, you notice something odd . . . .

The CCI at Point #2 is LOWER than the CCI at Point #1.

Price made a Higher Low while the CCI made a Lower Low. Is that important? Absolutely.

Please refer to the chart below. The yellow dotted line is the Typical Price Line. it's the same chart as the one above and you can reference where it is by looking at Point A and B.

But look at the highs and lows that I've marked. Compare that to the CCI.

Can you see it?

This is M-O-N-E-Y. it's just laying there. Just pick it up and put it in your pocket!


OK . . . OK . . . it's Friday . . . I'm spending the day building a wood shed so it's a great day in the mountains. Let's go back to being serious. This a GREAT setup. And with Clive's basic indicators you already have everything you need. You can use the 35 WMA (and higher time frame) to tell when the trend is UP or DOWN. And you can use the 8 period CCI. (Other indicators work too . . . RSI . . . even stochastics).

But trading is DANGEROUS. You have to practice these trades before committing to them.

GIVING CREDIT As far as I know, this setup was discovered by Andrew Cardwell. He calls them "reversals." It's also thoroughly discussed in an entire chapter of AERODYNAMIC INVESTING by Constance Brown. (You can usually find her book free online.) Finally, it's discussed all over the place on the internet.

Now it's off to Lowes to spend some money . . .
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  • #11,232
  • Jun 16, 2017 10:07am Jun 16, 2017 10:07am
Can't seem to get off the phone this morning and as I'm talking away I keep seeing these RETURN TO EQUILIBRIUM TRADES popping off.

The chart is the ES . . . left chart 1600 tick . . . right chart 400 ticks . . . 35 WMA on both . . . Heiken Ashi bars with a dot showing the actual Close of the bar . . . white line is 8 period SMA of the Typical Price.

Blue boxes show you where CCI pulls back to equilibrium.

See what price is doing? It would have been more accurate to show the TP of each bar . . . but the Close works in a pinch.

OK . . . NOW I'm off to spend some money . . . .
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  • #11,233
  • Jun 17, 2017 6:22am Jun 17, 2017 6:22am
Quoting jjwint
Can't seem to get off the phone this morning and as I'm talking away I keep seeing these RETURN TO EQUILIBRIUM TRADES popping off. The chart is the ES . . . left chart 1600 tick . . . right chart 400 ticks . . . 35 WMA on both . . . Heiken Ashi bars with a dot showing the actual Close of the bar . . . white line is 8 period SMA of the Typical Price. Blue boxes show you where CCI pulls back to equilibrium. See what price is doing? It would have been more accurate to show the TP of each bar . . . but the Close works in a pinch. OK . . . NOW I'm off...
Hi JJwint

Many thanks for your great posts about the CCI it is certainly a great indicator for entries whatever the market conditions as its very versatile. It also very often leads the price turning down or up before price does giving us some absolutely awesome entries... Especially I've noticed on tick charts...

You mentioning tick bars got me looking back at my old Tick charts again, well constant volume tick charts as produced by OVO on Mt4...And using tick charts and the CCI is an awesome combination.

Will post some charts later to show you what I mean but before I do I don't want to repeat myself so anyone who wants to understand my entry and how I use the CCI please do some homework and look at these two posts...

This one covers my entry technique in great detal using the CCI post 8353 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...54#post8463154

This one covers how we can use the CCI and how to filter which ones to take using market structure pos 9732 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...78#post8686778

Oh and if you haven't got it go and get a free trial on the OVO tick charts here and watch this video explaining how to set them up,
Inserted Video
and you can get their free trial from here https://ovo.cz/ so I don't have to waste time explaining how they work either...

Read them and absorb them ready for when I post my 100 tick chart strategy which utilises all of the above...

Thanks again JJwint for reminding me about the awesome combination of Tick charts and CCI....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #11,234
  • Jun 17, 2017 9:46am Jun 17, 2017 9:46am
You're very welcome. It's an honor to contribute to your thread. It is truly one of the masterpieces on the internet. Hopefully, more and more folks will come read what you're created.

BTW . . . your thread is the ONLY one I have ever shared ideas with online . . . ever . . . and I've been at this game a long time.

I will look into OVO and exchange some emails with them.

My understanding has always been that it's impossible to produce tick chats for Forex. Thinkorswim has them but even their trading desk folks tell you not to use them.

But if OVO has figured something out, that's worth its weight in . . . not just gold . . . maybe platinum . . . diamonds . . . kryptonite? :-)

Anyway, I'm looking forward to researching this further.
  • #11,235
  • Jun 18, 2017 7:29am Jun 18, 2017 7:29am
Quoting jjwint
Good job DANC! Only two rules in the jungle: Rule #1 Losses bad . . . profits good. Rule #2 See Rule #1 The Mighty CCI . . . . What really drew me to Clive's method is his combination of the 35 WMA and the 8 pd CCI. A lot of folks don't understand exactly what the CCI does, so I'd like to explain something about it and maybe that will introduce you to another way of pulling money out of the market. The basic formula of the CCI is very simple: CCI = (Typical Price - 20-period SMA of TP) / (.015 x Mean Deviation) Typical Price (TP) = (High + Low +...
GREAT Stuff.. GREAT Posts.... THKs to both of you..
  • #11,236
  • Jun 18, 2017 9:52am Jun 18, 2017 9:52am
Quoting jjwint
Can't seem to get off the phone this morning and as I'm talking away I keep seeing these RETURN TO EQUILIBRIUM TRADES popping off. The chart is the ES . . . left chart 1600 tick . . . right chart 400 ticks . . . 35 WMA on both . . . Heiken Ashi bars with a dot showing the actual Close of the bar . . . white line is 8 period SMA of the Typical Price. Blue boxes show you where CCI pulls back to equilibrium. See what price is doing? It would have been more accurate to show the TP of each bar . . . but the Close works in a pinch. OK . . . NOW I'm off...
Very useful informaton:..thanks, can i only ask how You decide your target prices ? thanks a lot
  • #11,237
  • Edited 11:28am Jun 18, 2017 11:08am | Edited 11:28am
Quoting gigioforex
{quote} Very useful informaton:..thanks, can i only ask how You decide your target prices ? thanks a lot
That's a book by itself. I'm just starting with Forex so I'm still playing around with it but I don't see any reason why the things I do on the ES won't work in Forex.

The first way to do it is to set yourself a "goal" to get 1:1 or 1.6:1 or 2:1. Depends on your confidence and level of greed. 1.6:1 is the minimum in my opinion since you're probably accurate no more than 60% of the time. I was taught that by Tom Joseph. He used to say that a system might be 90% accurate but by the time you get your hands on it, it will only be 60%.

Second way . . . set a constant target. For example, on the ES I would shoot for 3 ticks and exit one, then leave a runner. Some people shoot for 4 ticks. Again, depends on your greed. Some folks shoot for two ticks. This, however, is something you do in a strong trend.

Third way . . . if price is moving up draw a line across the tops. When price hits the line, get out.

Any of those three methods will work. I will keep repeating . . . it's all about greed.

WARNING . . . if you want to blow up an account FAST . . . try taking three ticks all day long . . . morning market . . . lunch time market . . . afternoon market . . . etc. You will eventually screw up, take a big loss or two, and be flat or negative for the day. It is a dangerous way to trade if you lack self-control. So instead, you set a goal for yourself of, let's say 10 points a week . . . 15 . . . 20 . . . whatever. That means that you take the BEST setups and then stop for the day. Go do something else.

Now . . . you asked how do I decide target prices so I'll show you what I do to manage trades. I can't go too deeply into this because I paid money to learn this method. I don't want to give it away for free because that wouldn't be fair to my teacher . . . but I'm not sure whether I can mention names, etc.

So what's this thread called? "Trading as simple as ABCD."

Well, I use ABCD. Sort of. I use the principle that AB=CD. What Clive's method helps me do (and what other methods before helped me do) is just find Point C.

Let's start with Chart 1 as posted above. Now, look at Chart 2 and Chart 3 and see what I added and how I marked the legs. It's a Fib extension and it shows AB=CD but also some checkpoints along the way from C to D. I usually unload at the 50% mark and let the runner(s) go.

There are a lot of ways to manage trades when you have this structure in front of you.
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  • #11,238
  • Jun 18, 2017 11:23am Jun 18, 2017 11:23am
I said above:
Quote
Now . . . you asked how do I decide target prices so I'll show you what I do to manage trades. I can't go too deeply into this because I paid money to learn this method. I don't want to give it away for free because that wouldn't be fair to my teacher . . . but I'm not sure whether I can mention names, etc.


Just read this . . . so . . . sorry . . . can't go into my personal method any farther.




Quote
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Quote

Members may not use Forex Factory to promote a product or service, either their own or someone else's. This includes products or services that are planned for the future. If a member's posts can link them to a forex-related company, they're in violation of this code.

Members who are focused on a product or service, or new members who mention a little-know website, are generally suspected to be company shills.


I'm not shilling for anyone. You don't really need to pay money anyway. Just dig around the internet and you'll find a ton of information on AB=CD trades and how to manage them.
  • #11,239
  • Jun 18, 2017 11:29am Jun 18, 2017 11:29am
Quoting jjwint
I said above: {quote} Just read this . . . so . . . sorry . . . can't go into it my personal method any farther. [b]{quote} I'm not shilling for anyone. You don't really need to pay money anyway. Just dig around the internet and you'll find a ton of information on AB=CD trades and how to manage them.
Thanks a lot ..you are not a very skilled trader but also a great teacher
  • #11,240
  • Jun 18, 2017 9:23pm Jun 18, 2017 9:23pm
Quoting gigioforex
{quote} Thanks a lot ..

Greed is good. Michael Douglas says so. Actually, Ivan Boesky was the inspiration for that line.

Quote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF_iorX_MAw

But you have to control your greed.

Every guru tells you to exercise self-control. But few ever explain where. I believe you have to exercise the most self-control over your expectations . . . how much you take out of each trade.

Control that then add a solid, robust system like the one Clive uses and you'll be unstoppable.
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